The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

No Time to Die Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-38 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	63	11387	11617	230	1.98%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

230

 

Day One Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
FF9	184.00		125	125		0/96	14961/15086	0.83%		n/a
NTTD	n/a		230	230		0/63	11387/11617	1.98%		n/a

PRE-SALE NOTE: Fast and Furious 9 has 112 days of pre-sales while No Time to Die has 39 days of pre-sales.

 

Day One Adjusted Comp (Very LOL comps - don't take seriously)

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM	80.14		287	287		0/55	7257/7544	3.80%		5.05m
H&S	418.18		55	55		0/98	6101/6156	0.89%		24.25m
NTTD (adj)	n/a		230	230		0/63	10273/10503	2.19%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NTTD (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for King of the Monsters and Hobbs & Shaw. 

PRE-SALE NOTES: No Time to Die has 39 days of pre-sales while Hobbs & Shaw had 35 days of pre-sales and King of the Monsters had 21.

Also, King of the Monsters had two days where some theaters sold tickets ahead of time before the unofficial announcement of ticket sales.

 

===

 

As I mentioned upthread, the most trafficked theater in town hasn't yet started selling tickets yet, aside from the Wed marathon showing.  A couple of other theaters don't have listings up either, and a few others put them up late in the day.

 

Complicating matters was that there was a massive group sale at the local independent TrueIMAX in town, where over 100 tickets were sold for one showing.  If that group sale hadn't happened the total would have been 116 tickets sold region wide. Which, needless to say, would have looked a hell of a lot worse.

 

So one one hand, no Arden sales and late sales elsewhere. On the other hand, anemic sales in many (though not all) theaters except the IMAX joint which might have skewed things locally.  On the other other hand, this can't be the only place in the country where there were group sales.

 

And, finally, damn if I know what should be a good comp for this film.  Being nearly 40 days out throws in a monkey wrench, and what might be a fairly decent enough comp (FF9), we don't know the total yet.  Plus the minor fact of the slight difference in pre-sale window.  So, just have to see how it goes.

 

Probably would have liked to see better sales locally, but there were enough wild cards present that I don't have a good handle on it yet.  Doubly so for it being so far out.

Edited March 4, 2020 by Porthos

[john2000]

@keysersoze123  for onward do we have any comparison   that can be used with other orininal pixar movie ?

[YM!]

Onward

North Shore Cinema (2 days before previews, 3 before release)

Mequon, WI

3/05/20

 

Ticket Sales:

6:00 - 25/147

6:30 - 0/146

7:15 - 10/301 - UltraScreen 

9:00 - 1/146

10:00 - 0/301 - UltraScreen 

 

Comparisons:

41% of Aladdin ($2.90M Previews/$37.86M OW/$48.24M OW (using the 4 day too as less frontloaded))

80% of Coco ($1.84M Previews/$40.64M OW)

103% of Hotel Translyvania 3 ($2.67M/$45.33M OW)

124% of The Secret Life of Pets 2 ($2.85M Previews/$57.85M OW)

150% of A Wrinkle In Time ($1.95M/$49.65M OW)

 

Yeah, it’s not looking too hot anymore. Now I know I have no Pixar comparisons other than Coco which works really well, but Wrinkle In Time opened about the same time and I imagine the other animations are about as walk up based. Guessing $45M-$50M OW.

[john2000]

30 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Onward

North Shore Cinema (2 days before previews, 3 before release)

Mequon, WI

3/05/20

 

Ticket Sales:

6:00 - 25/147

6:30 - 0/146

7:15 - 10/301 - UltraScreen 

9:00 - 1/146

10:00 - 0/301 - UltraScreen 

 

Comparisons:

41% of Aladdin ($2.90M Previews/$37.86M OW/$48.24M OW (using the 4 day too as less frontloaded))

80% of Coco ($1.84M Previews/$40.64M OW)

103% of Hotel Translyvania 3 ($2.67M/$45.33M OW)

124% of The Secret Life of Pets 2 ($2.85M Previews/$57.85M OW)

150% of A Wrinkle In Time ($1.95M/$49.65M OW)

 

Yeah, it’s not looking too hot anymore. Now I know I have no Pixar comparisons other than Coco which works really well, but Wrinkle In Time opened about the same time and I imagine the other animations are about as walk up based. Guessing $45M-$50M OW.

hope it picks up, still however, its in line with most of pixar /walt disney animation originals around 50

Edited March 3, 2020 by john2000

[ChipDerby]

I'd imagine the average Derby prediction for Onward will be in the high 40s. Hope it can get close to $150 mil total with that.

[john2000]

8 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

I'd imagine the average Derby prediction for Onward will be in the high 40s. Hope it can get close to $150 mil total with that.

if it hits around 50, then with normal pixar legs dom total will be more like 200 than 150

[ChipDerby]

I'm thinking it won't get normal Pixar legs though. It's the least "Pixar-y" movie since The Good Dinosaur, so I'm hoping for at least 3.5x legs.

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

I like that in between all these movies Onward, A Quiet Place 2, Mulan and No Time to Die somehow Bloodshot managed to get an IMAX deal as well.

 

Also cineplex has showtimes up for all these movies except Bloodshot.

[john2000]

6 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

I'm thinking it won't get normal Pixar legs though. It's the least "Pixar-y" movie since The Good Dinosaur, so I'm hoping for at least 3.5x legs.

we will see how the the reception will be

[YM!]

Yeah a 3.5x multiple seems more likely than a 4x multiple for Onward.

[john2000]

1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Yeah a 3.5x multiple seems more likely than a 4x multiple for Onward.

you think onward , could hit 55- 60 if it picks up ?

Edited March 3, 2020 by john2000

[Madhuvan]

Not surprised with Onward tracking. 

Pixar is not capable of giving 2 big hit in a year like WDAS. 

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Not surprised with Onward tracking. 

Pixar is not capable of giving 2 big hit in a year like WDAS. 

you do know that most pixars original have ow of like 45-55 right ?  its the legs that help them big time

 

 

 

ps lol other than frozen 1 and 2 and zootopia all the other of walt disney animation movies have ow in the range of 55 and ww total of 650 or so wtf are you saying mate

 

ps2 1-1,2 billion is not just big its huge for an animated movie

Edited March 3, 2020 by john2000

[john2000]

if onward has an ow of 45-55 i wont pretend that its a fantastic huge ow , its not, but it would be in line with most of the other original animated movies

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

I like that in between all these movies Onward, A Quiet Place 2, Mulan and No Time to Die somehow Bloodshot managed to get an IMAX deal as well.

 

Also cineplex has showtimes up for all these movies except Bloodshot.

Someone at IMAX must still think people actually care about Vin Diesel when he isn't in Fast & Furious movies.

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, john2000 said:

@keysersoze123  for onward do we have any comparison   that can be used with other orininal pixar movie ?

I have not tracked that long to have any comparisons. But since my data is big enough to be extrapolated on its own. 

 

I want to see huge OD PS jump. Even if it does better than Sonic on PS to OD BO, it still needs to go way higher to have reasonable Friday BO. 

[ZackM]

Numbers from yesterday evening.

 

Onward - MTC4 Opening Weekend Seat Report: T-3 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Shows Added	115	-	-	-	-
Seats Added	21,228	-	-	-	-
Seats Sold	681	-	-	-	-
	Shows w/o Reserved Seats	Shows w/ Reserved Seats	Seats Left	Total Seats	Matinee	Evening	Total Sold	Pct. Sold
D-0	83	185	44,482	45,015	-	533	533	1.18%
D-1	8	220	65,136	65,836	181	519	700	1.06%
D-2	11	261	72,170	72,953	378	405	783	1.07%
D-3	10	256	72,713	73,080	161	206	367	0.50%
Total	112	922	254,501	256,884	720	1,663	2383	0.93%

[Legion Again]

15 minutes ago, john2000 said:

ps lol other than frozen 1 and 2 and zootopia all the other of walt disney animation movies have ow in the range of 55 and ww total of 650 or so wtf are you saying mate

A lot of those are Day 3-5 OWs instead of Thurs-Fri. And then there’s inflation. 50M at 2020 prices wouldn’t be a disaster, but it would clearly be a low end debut for WDAS/Pixar. Honestly confused why you seem to want to spin this so much.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

A lot of those are Day 3-5 OWs instead of Thurs-Fri. And then there’s inflation. 50M at 2020 prices wouldn’t be a disaster, but it would clearly be a low end debut for WDAS/Pixar. Honestly confused why you seem to want to spin this so much.

again didnt you read, i didnt say that it would be fantastic or great, i just said that it wouldnt be terrible as some people are making out to be , thats all 

Edited March 3, 2020 by john2000

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, Arendelle Legion said:

 Honestly confused why you seem to want to spin this so much.

He's a Disney stan, that's why.