The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

it doesnt make sense to try to predict what will happen in 3 weeks no

You are on a thread called box office tracking............ it is all about for absolutely no reason at all trying to predict what movies will do in 2-3-4 weeks from now, it absolutely do not make any sense why we care and take that endeavor.....

 

But you opened a box office tracking thread on a box office forum, you were not looking for anything of value right ?

[john2000]

10 minutes ago, Barnack said:

You are on a thread called box office tracking............ it is all about for absolutely no reason at all trying to predict what movies will do in 2-3-4 weeks from now, it absolutely do not make any sense why we care and take that endeavor.....

 

But you opened a box office tracking thread on a box office forum, you were not looking for anything of value right ?

nvr

Edited March 3, 2020 by john2000

[Jamiem]

The thing with coronavirus is it could be impacting the box office right now but it’s hard to tell as right now there are no mega blockbusters out that it would be impacting. 

 

Now if it truly gets bad then theatres will probably close in certain  districts/states and that will influence the gross of almost every film but I still think that is at least a couple of weeks away from happening if it does in fact ever happen. 

[john2000]

irelevant, but isnt it weird, that the presales for bond started , now, instead , with the sec trailer ? i would guess, that a debut with sec trailer , would have the presales, as it would give more exposure

[Krissykins]

Corona virus doesn’t appear to impacting the box office right now in the US. Onward doesn’t get a free pass. 
 

If it doesn’t open Pixar-level huge, then Corona won’t be an excuse lol 

[Inceptionzq]

On 3/2/2020 at 1:37 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Onward Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

52

1434

3.63%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

47

1610

2.92%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
253	35	7694	3.29%	9	40

 

Sonic comp: 2.61M

Jumanji comp: 3.26M

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 2.31M

Adjusted Addams Family comp: 3.57M

Onward Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

68

1434

4.74%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

58

1610

3.60%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
304	51	8598	3.54%	9	49

 

Showings added: 9

Seats added: 904

 

Sonic comp: 2.61M

Jumanji comp: 3.16M

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 2.22M

Adjusted Addams Family comp: 2.96M

[Inceptionzq]

On 3/2/2020 at 1:55 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Mulan Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

41

1826

2.25%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

40

1854

2.16%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
189	20	10628	1.78%	9	62

 

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 5.30M

Mulan Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

47

1826

2.57%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

48

1854

2.59%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
213	24	10628	2.00%	9	62

 

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 5.61M

[Inceptionzq]

On 3/2/2020 at 2:15 PM, Inceptionzq said:

A Quiet Place Part 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

24

1446

1.66%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

19

1665

1.14%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
105	16	8185	1.28%	9	38

A Quiet Place Part 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

25

1446

1.73%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

26

1665

1.56%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
115	10	8185	1.41%	9	38

 

Day 5 of sales IT 2 comp: 3.21M

[Inceptionzq]

No Time To Die Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

36

3456

1.04%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

27

2779

0.97%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
131	N/A	14178	0.92%	8	68

[Eric the Ape]

https://deadline.com/2020/03/onward-ben-affleck-the-way-back-box-office-coronavirus-1202873492/

 

Quote

Despite the swelling panic about the coronavirus, the global business for Disney/Pixar’s elf fantasy feature Onward should turn out to be solid.

 

To date, there aren’t any theaters closed in the U.S. (nor do sources expect any in the near future), certainly not in a grave way like China’s which has seen its nationwide exhibition infrastructure shut down, heading to a $2 billion-plus loss at the country’s box office. With the situation ideal here stateside, Onward, boosted by great reviews of 85% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, is in the space to overperform with exhibition believing a $50M+ domestic 3-day, out-powering the pic’s mid $40M tracking projection. Previews start Thursday night at 6PM.

 

In 47 offshore markets, repping 60% of the foreign footprint, Onward is looking to do $40M-$55M, for a worldwide start between $90M-$105M.  How low Onward goes this weekend offshore will indicate how intense fears are among moviegoers. Key markets launching include France (which has some cinemas closed), the UK, Russia, Brazil, Mexico and Germany where the Tom Holland-Chris Pratt feature premiered at the Berlin Film Festival. Australia joins in April in addition to Japan, Korea and Italy. The latter two would have been included in the opening suite, but saw their dates shifted due to the recent spike in Covid-19 cases. That said, we’re hearing that Italian cinemas are gradually re-opening. China, which is not typically a massive Pixar market, is on hold as it is for all titles amid the Middle Kingdom cinema shutdown.

 

In the states, in the first choice category, Onward is tracking just higher than Disney’s 2016 original animated toon Zootopia, which also opened during the first weekend of March and overindexed in its opening to $75M, spurred by its great humor and social cultural message, besting its $60M-$70M projections. While spring break goes into effect this weekend with 4% K-12 out on Friday and 12% on Monday (higher than the 3% and 5% which Zootopia had on both days), forecasts remain lower on this original Pixar film. While I’ve heard some demo numbers on tracking are higher than Inside Out, we need to remember it’s not a June release.

 

Also going wide this weekend is Warner Bros.’ Ben Affleck drama The Way Back from director Gavin O’Connor about a former high school basketball phenom, struggling with alcoholism, who is offered a coaching job at his alma mater. No Rotten Tomatoes score yet, which is not a good sign. Estimates are between $7M-$10M for the weekend at 2,718 theaters. First shows are Friday morning; no previews. The Way Back is the last in a string of dramas by Warner Bros., going back to September’s Goldfinch (most of which failed), before they return with a more event and genre-driven slate, starting with the animated Scoob! on May 15 followed by anticipated juggernaut Wonder Woman 1984 on June 5.

 

Expanding wide, is Focus Features’ revisioned Jane Austen feature Emma starring Glass actress Anya-Taylor Joy. Pic will explode from 97 theaters to around 1,500 venues in its third weekend with an industry projected take of $3M-$5M. To date, Emma, off an 85% certified fresh Rotten Tomatoes score has minted $1.57M through 11 days.

 

[dudalb]

Variety today saying a lot of the concerns about the virus by studios is not driven by immediate impact on the box office, but by the damage it might do the economy as a whole which would really hurt the studiios.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Pixar just never has any luck doing 2 films a year it seems.

[Krissykins]

$50m would be the lowest Pixar opening since The Good Dinosaur (They’ve only released one original film since then to be fair) and before that, Ratatouille, 13 years ago ($47m....unadjusted). Maybe it’ll over perform industry expectations though. 

 

WB will be glad this Ben Affleck yarn is their last adult drama for a while. 

[xiazhi]

Seattle People won't go out for movies for at least a few weeks

[ThomasNicole]

I’m expecting around $ 55M (which is Good)

 

But people can’t pretend the virus isn’t already a thing that the movies will have to deal... Deadline make it very clear on their article and seems reasonable 

[Madhuvan]

9 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I’m expecting around $ 55M (which is Good)

 

But people can’t pretend the virus isn’t already a thing that the movies will have to deal... Deadline make it very clear on their article and seems reasonable 

People love to see Disney fail. 

They don't care about reasoning. 

I knew Onward was tracking low but it's also true that cronavirus fear is making many families stay at home. 

[DAJK]

Big Fish is one of my all-time favourite movies. I clearly have a thing for movies that discuss father-son relationships, so I can really see myself having a soft spot for Onward. 

 

While I usually like seeing Disney fail, I think Pixar is a brilliant team of talented storytellers and filmmakers that I love to see them succeed whenever possible. 

[Jamiem]

I think Onward has bigger problem so than just the Coronavirus, although that is likely having some sort of impact just hard to tell how much, the marketing has been mixed at best with most of the positive press from the Tom and Chris bromance rather than the film it seems. The film is obviously getting good (hell even great) reviews but for a Pixar film that is just ok unlike recent great films like Toy Story 4, Coco and Inside Out. 

 

Also the most perplexing thing to me is that given the subject of the film it not coming out in the June for Fathers Day weekend is crazy and then in this scenario Soul could’ve come out last month for Black History mouth I think that would’ve been a much better release schedule to maximise the two Pixar films in my opinion. 

 

All of this his said I want the film to succeed but it has a lot going against it, and hey at worst a bunch of people will check it out on Disney+ in 8 or so months so it won’t be a huge loss for Pixar from a viewership standpoint maybe just a finical disappointment, 

[Eric the Ape]

Onward Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	76	243	13,868	1.75%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 24

Total Seats Added Today: 3,080

Total Seats Sold Today: 59

 

Comp

2.336x of Dora 2 days before release (2.92M)

4.050x of Abominable (2.63M)

1.396x of Addams Family (1.74M)

1.000x of Maleficent (2.3M)

0.841x of Jumanji (3.95M)
3.037x of Dolittle (2.81M)

0.491x of Sonic (1.47M)

 

I'll admit, not a bad day. Almost every comp increased, apart from Addams Family, which exploded on Tuesday for whatever reason, only to go back to Earth later (I think that T-Mobile deal went into effect that day?). If Wednesday and Thursday continue this momentum, I feel this would result in decent potential for high 2s, which should at least ensure 50M.

[Eric the Ape]

A Quiet Place Part II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	45	116	11,049	1.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 12

 

Comp

0.171x of It: Chapter Two 15 days before release (1.79M)