The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

Disney is shooting itself in the foot with their tactic. 

 

Anyway on GVK

MTC1 - 107188/929807 1051090.00 5441 shows

MTC2 - 90508/729923 924345.45 5144 shows

 

I dont see 300K at this point. Sunday evening BO aint that great. I am thinking 270-280K. I will update tonight. 

 

 

[Borobudur]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Disney is shooting itself in the foot with their tactic. 

 

Anyway on GVK

MTC1 - 107188/929807 1051090.00 5441 shows

MTC2 - 90508/729923 924345.45 5144 shows

 

I dont see 300K at this point. Sunday evening BO aint that great. I am thinking 270-280K. I will update tonight. 

 

 

Do you sense any "underperformance" due to capacity constraint ? or GvK is genuinely unable to hit higher?

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

Do you sense any "underperformance" due to capacity constraint ? or GvK is genuinely unable to hit higher?

There are no capacity issues today. Sunday evening demand goes down unless its an uber blockbuster with huge spillover. 

 

Anyway 

GVK Sunday End

MTC1 - 154594/930226 1611260.00 5444 shows (428 theatres)

MTC2 -  127192/722135 1321972.33 5043 shows (294 theatres)

 

At least it crossed 280K. MTC1 did well with evening shows. Still looking at a big drop. I am thinking 7.7m Sunday. PWP held better than regular shows adding another 200K.  

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am thinking 7.7m Sunday

To be clear, with or without PWP? 
 

38% would be a pretty big Easter Sun drop though I guess Jat did warn about lack of Canada.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

To be clear, with or without PWP? 
 

38% would be a pretty big Easter Sun drop though I guess Jat did warn about lack of Canada.

With. If you look at MTC data, minus PWP it dropped worse than that. MTC1 dropped just above 40% and MTC2 dropped about 45%. But PWP held well(MTC1 only 10% drop and MTC2 30% drop), but that wont make up that much considering ratio of PWP to overall BO is still small. On top of that looking at MTC2 drop, smaller theatre chains would have done just as bad. 

 

 

[Legion Again]

So about 31.8 3 day 48 5-day.    
 

Still a rock solid result, if it goes like 3.8 Mon for 52 cume, add 13x Mon would be like 101 still. So passing KOTM DOM may be up in the air for a while.   
 

On the other hand, no competition upcoming, good reception, solid legs wouldn’t surprise me.

Edited April 5, 2021 by WandaLegion

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

So about 31.8 3 day 48 5-day.    
 

Still a rock solid result, if it goes like 3.8 Mon for 52 cume, add 13x Mon would be like 101 still. So passing KOTM DOM may be up in the air for a while.   
 

On the other hand, no competition upcoming, good reception, solid legs wouldn’t surprise me.

MTC1 will drop hard tomorrow as many theatres go offline for weekdays. Only plus point will be LA county will start to allow 50% occupancy. Still I expect it to drop 70% while MTC2 will hold much better. But overall drop wont be that good as you expect. 

[Legion Again]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 will drop hard tomorrow as many theatres go offline for weekdays. Only plus point will be LA county will start to allow 50% occupancy. Still I expect it to drop 70% while MTC2 will hold much better. But overall drop wont be that good as you expect. 

I suspect those MTC1s are not too important to gross. Sun-Mon drops have been pretty normal looking across the market for the last many Mondays.

[charlie Jatinder]

Thinking $7-7.25M.

[john2000]

@keysersoze123 any update ?

[Borobudur]

6 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

So about 31.8 3 day 48 5-day.    
 

Still a rock solid result, if it goes like 3.8 Mon for 52 cume, add 13x Mon would be like 101 still. So passing KOTM DOM may be up in the air for a while.   
 

On the other hand, no competition upcoming, good reception, solid legs wouldn’t surprise me.

Actually I am little bit disappointed with <50m for 5 days. Obviously this is the first 20m, 30m opener since pandemic begin but I was so hyped for 50m 5 days since there are multiple predictions here that peg that number at >50m.  Seeing the movie achieving lesser is just not satisfying enough.  

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

Actually I am little bit disappointed with <50m for 5 days. Obviously this is the first 20m, 30m opener since pandemic begin but I was so hyped for 50m 5 days since there are multiple predictions here that peg that number at >50m.  Seeing the movie achieving lesser is just not satisfying enough.  

As the original conductor of the 50M train (I called for it back in February) I consider this an absolute win. Especially with LA delaying their 50%. It’s a very very very strong result, try not to anchor to the higher end of BOT chatter which can run a little wild.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

As the original conductor of the 50M train (I called for it back in February) I consider this an absolute win. Especially with LA delaying their 50%. It’s a very very very strong result, try not to anchor to the higher end of BOT chatter which can run a little wild.

Remove 8M off it I will still take it as a good result considering Hollywood trades were expecting $25-30M 5 days just a few days back.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

Actually I am little bit disappointed with <50m for 5 days. Obviously this is the first 20m, 30m opener since pandemic begin but I was so hyped for 50m 5 days since there are multiple predictions here that peg that number at >50m.  Seeing the movie achieving lesser is just not satisfying enough.  

I always labeled my predictions as optimistic. High-end predictions shouldn't be taken as an indicator of what would be a good number. 48 is not that different from 50 anyway. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Though if we didnt has @keysersoze123's scrapper, considering how our 3 cities (sac, denver and philly) were doing bonker numbers, we would have expected numbers way way too high and meltdowns would have been 😛

Edited April 5, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Borobudur]

15 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

As the original conductor of the 50M train (I called for it back in February) I consider this an absolute win. Especially with LA delaying their 50%. It’s a very very very strong result, try not to anchor to the higher end of BOT chatter which can run a little wild.

 

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

I always labeled my predictions as optimistic. High-end predictions shouldn't be taken as an indicator of what would be a good number. 48 is not that different from 50 anyway. 

Since Monday is a semi-holiday I should just roll Monday number in for that >50m illusion.

[Legion Again]

27 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Remove 8M off it I will still take it as a good result considering Hollywood trades were expecting $25-30M 5 days just a few days back.

I try not to anchor to HW trades either, they run a little wild in the other direction 🤣

 

But yeah even a 40M debut would have been pretty good, the previous pandemic record 5-day cume was presumably WW84 with half that. 

Edited April 5, 2021 by WandaLegion

[Legion Again]

I also thought Regal would more seriously reopen when I originally went for 50. I think without LA artificially delaying and wider Regal penetration we would have 50+ easily.

[titanic2187]

9 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

So about 31.8 3 day 48 5-day.    
 

Still a rock solid result, if it goes like 3.8 Mon for 52 cume, add 13x Mon would be like 101 still. So passing KOTM DOM may be up in the air for a while.   
 

On the other hand, no competition upcoming, good reception, solid legs wouldn’t surprise me.

Titanic 3D similarly opened for 5 days during Easter weekend. While not a comparable genre, both Titanic 3D and GvK are widely available on other platforms , free or not. This should provide some comparison point for both titles, Titanic 3D did 25.6m (5 days opening)  for a 57.9m total, GvK would gross ~108.6m if follow Titanic 3D's leg.    

[titanic2187]

2 hours ago, Borobudur said:

Actually I am little bit disappointed with <50m for 5 days. Obviously this is the first 20m, 30m opener since pandemic begin but I was so hyped for 50m 5 days since there are multiple predictions here that peg that number at >50m.  Seeing the movie achieving lesser is just not satisfying enough.  

I too, expect at least 50m for 5 days but that Friday bump turns out lower than I hope.....