The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

20 hours ago, Menor said:

It's at like 80% of what OD PS was at this point, and the pace is better. I think PS can come close to matching OD. 

Ok I messed up this calculation of Keyser's data but there is a clear trend.  

 

At its T-4 Friday was about 60% of OD sales at the same point. By T-2 it was up to 67% and the pace was nearly identical. The trend will certainly continue to improve and so final Friday PS will be more than 80% of final OD PS.

 

Now Saturday at its T-4 was already about 73% of OD at the same point. Let's see how it trends but if it keeps going then it should hit perhaps 90%+ or even match OD. 

 

PSm should be significantly better, as these are D3 and D4 and these are also weekends rather than weekdays. The show count is also bigger, which will help with any capacity issues. So Friday and Saturday should both exceed OD, Saturday significantly so. 

Edited April 1, 2021 by Menor

[titanic2187]

6 minutes ago, Menor said:

Ok I messed up this calculation of Keyser's data but there is a clear trend.  

 

At its T-4 Friday was about 60% of OD sales at the same point. By T-2 it was up to 67% and the pace was nearly identical. The trend will certainly continue to improve and so final Friday PS will be more than 80% of final OD PS.

 

Now Saturday at its T-4 was already about 73% of OD at the same point. Let's see how it trends but if it keeps going then it should hit perhaps 90%+ or even match OD. 

 

PSm should be significantly better, as these are D3 and D4 and these are also weekends rather than weekdays. The show count is also bigger, which will help with any capacity issues. So Friday and Saturday should both exceed OD, Saturday significantly so. 

Checking through regal showtimes over the weekend in New York and i realise the first show only start on 12.00pm. Is that a regulatory requirement for the cinema to open this late?  

[Inceptionzq]

Was bored and messing around with Inspect Element on Chrome, and found a faster way to count seats sold. So I did a count for GvK for today. 2508 tickets sold for Denver so far. Don’t have anything to compare it to because my final count for Wednesday was done Tuesday night at 10. But I guess I’ll do a count tomorrow and maybe Saturday too

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

Checking through regal showtimes over the weekend in New York and i realise the first show only start on 12.00pm. Is that a regulatory requirement for the cinema to open this late?  

Nah. There are no regulations around how early cinema can open. But demand for very early shows aren't great unless its a uber blockbuster and you can watch Zilla in HBO Max as well. 

[keysersoze123]

At just beyond Noon PST Zilla is at  83990/525475 1072081.00 at MTC1 and 77693/578938 834186.77 at MTC2. If i have to guess its going to end up around 250-270K between the 2 chains. Minus PWP its headed for around 5.5m . But there is still time for it to make up. 

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, Borobudur said:

Stronger late-night walk-ups possible for holiday eve? Are cinema allowed to have midnight show?

To my knowledge there are no restrictions. But even at Empire 25 where I remember seeing shows up to 2AM, the last show is at 1030PM and Imax/Dolby etc are ending even earlier. May be covid related scheduling to avoid late shows. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

At just beyond Noon PST Zilla is at  83990/525475 1072081.00 at MTC1 and 77693/578938 834186.77 at MTC2. If i have to guess its going to end up around 250-270K between the 2 chains. Minus PWP its headed for around 5.5m . But there is still time for it to make up. 

5.5 minus PWP would be pretty decent I think, that may be like 6.2 overall. 

[keysersoze123]

GVK Friday PS Update

MTC1 - 84925/890436 1054220.00 4912 shows(428 Theatres) +25133 // 472 sellouts

MTC2 - 71208/688106 810466.64  4636 shows(293 Theatres) +18889 // 213 sellouts

 

PWP - MTC1 has 1716 sellouts and MTC has 2440 sellouts

 

This is just over a day of PS. Compared to OD at the same point the PS is down about 15% in MTC1 and 25% in MTC2. PWP sellouts are higher but not sure how many one can attribute to GVK. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

GVK Friday PS Update

MTC1 - 84925/890436 1054220.00 4912 shows(428 Theatres) +25133 // 472 sellouts

MTC2 - 71208/688106 810466.64  4636 shows(293 Theatres) +18889 // 213 sellouts

 

PWP - MTC1 has 1716 sellouts and MTC has 2440 sellouts

 

This is just over a day of PS. Compared to OD at the same point the PS is down about 15% in MTC1 and 25% in MTC2. PWP sellouts are higher but not sure how many one can attribute to GVK. 

That seems quite good. If it follows the usual trend, final PS will be 85% of OD. With better walkups it should easily clear OD. 

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

GVK Friday PS Update

MTC1 - 84925/890436 1054220.00 4912 shows(428 Theatres) +25133 // 472 sellouts

MTC2 - 71208/688106 810466.64  4636 shows(293 Theatres) +18889 // 213 sellouts

 

PWP - MTC1 has 1716 sellouts and MTC has 2440 sellouts

 

This is just over a day of PS. Compared to OD at the same point the PS is down about 15% in MTC1 and 25% in MTC2. PWP sellouts are higher but not sure how many one can attribute to GVK. 

HOLY FUCK, it is going to stay flat from the OD at this pace. 

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

That seems quite good. If it follows the usual trend, final PS will be 85% of OD. With better walkups it should easily clear OD. 

I agree. The PS run rate is slightly better for Friday at MTC1. Back then my update was just for 20 hours of PS. But OD PS exploded in final day evening and it finished at 255K between the 2 chains. I think MTC1 should be 90% or even slightly better. But MTC2 seem well lower. I guess NY theatres with limited capacity will sellout for the weekend. Plus it will help GVK overall as MTC1 ticket prices are higher. 

[Porthos]

*scans Sacto on a whim*

 

Huh.  That's a fair amount of sellouts for the evening showings.

 

(like, a ton of them)

[keysersoze123]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

At just beyond Noon PST Zilla is at  83990/525475 1072081.00 at MTC1 and 77693/578938 834186.77 at MTC2. If i have to guess its going to end up around 250-270K between the 2 chains. Minus PWP its headed for around 5.5m . But there is still time for it to make up. 

Just before 6PM PST MTC1 at 121502/541604 1497440.00 (3260 shows) and MTC2 at  118029/605959 1237180.82 4564 shows. East coast is almost done and so most business will have to happen in the west coast. Probably will finish at high end of my projections earlier today(~275K). But walk ups have been quite good. Much better than yesterday as there were more shows with seats available. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Assuming MTC 1 hit 125K and MTC 2 hit 120K, I am thinking of $6.5M Day two. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Assuming MTC 1 hit 125K and MTC 2 hit 120K, I am thinking of $6.5M Day two. 

The actual ticket numbers should be higher than that as we have several more hours to go. But yeah 6.5-6.8 seems about right unless PWPs really fell off a cliff today (doubtful). That will be ~80% of RPO's true OD. The same ratio for Friday would give 12. GvK should have a better jump with PS being so strong and the fact that it's jumping from D2 rather than OD, but even that same 12 would put it on pace for a $50 million 5-day. 

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Assuming MTC 1 hit 125K and MTC 2 hit 120K, I am thinking of $6.5M Day two. 

So I did some math and 130K & 140K is possible

Spoiler

MTC 1	Wed	Thu
10:00	128629	65815
12:00	143500	83990
15:00	167228	108000
Final	190839	130000
10:00	67.40%	50.63%
12:00	75.19%	64.61%
15:00	87.63%	83.08%
Final	100.00%	100.00%

 

 

MTC 2	Wed	Thu
10:00	127394	61907
12:00	141000	77693
17:00	179788	114000
Final	204241	140000
10:00	62.37%	44.22%
12:00	69.04%	55.50%
17:00	88.03%	81.43%
Final	100.00%	100.00%

 

 

If this happens, in that case $6.5-6.75M OD.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, Menor said:

The same ratio for Friday would give 12. GvK should have a better jump with PS being so strong and the fact that it's jumping from D2 rather than OD, but even that same 12 would put it on pace for a $50 million 5-day. 

130 MTC 1 and 140 MTC 2 will be ~24% and ~23% respectively as compared to 32% and 30% on Wednesday.

 

If occupancy on Friday are of Thursday level, we shall see $13M Friday. If they increase, which might happen as it is a Holiday, $15M ain't impossible.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

130 MTC 1 and 140 MTC 2 will be ~24% and ~23% respectively as compared to 32% and 30% on Wednesday.

 

If occupancy on Friday are of Thursday level, we shall see $13M Friday. If they increase, which might happen as it is a Holiday, $15M ain't impossible.

 

Yeah, 130 and 140 makes more sense to me than 125 and 120, as we have still many more hours to go on the West Coast. As far as Friday I do think 13+ million, but I was being conservative with that 12 (hence why I said "GvK should have a better jump"). Right now Friday occupancy is lower than Thursday at the same point, but Good Friday walkups should be stronger. Fingers crossed.

Edited April 2, 2021 by Menor

[Legion Again]

Reasonable: 9.6-7-13-14-10 (~54)

 

Or optimistic: 9.6-7-14.5-15.5-11 (~58)

 

Club is not dead I guess but does need a lot going right (mostly perhaps Sat bump can beat above).

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Or optimistic: 9.6-7-14.5-15.5-11 (~58)

Optimistic

9.6 6.8 16 16 11 = 59.4

Edited April 2, 2021 by charlie Jatinder