The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

15 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

If its 450K in 2 MTCs, it will be $10.25-10.5M excluding PWPs. PWPs may be $1.25-1.5M? 

 

11.5-12M.

Does that estimate include the 600+ theaters that opened today?

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 hours ago, ReturnOfTheBoxOffice said:

Does that estimate include the 600+ theaters that opened today?

Yes. Excluding those it would be ~9.6 million excluding PWPs. 

Edited April 3, 2021 by Menor

[john2000]

any update ?

[keysersoze123]

I dont have any update beyond what I provided yesterday. Final update for MTC1 was 210K but a failed partial run looked like 235-240K finish. MTC2 last run finished at 199K but a restart looked like around 205-210K. Beyond that sellouts and PWP numbers looked really good. 

 

Sellouts  - MTC1 - 3083(including non reserved shows) !!! and MTC2 - 1335 sellouts

PWP - MTC1 1837 and MTC2 -2523 // To reiterate this is not movie specific. 

 

I put 10.5-11 as raw reserved data was under 15% increase from OD. I hope I am wrong and its closer to 12m. 

 

FYI Day 4 - PWP is even better. MTC1 - 2108 MTC2 - 3210 !!! 

 

I dont have MTC data for Day 4 beyond what I posted at 5PM Pacific yesterday but PS is around OD level overall(MTC1 is slightly better and MTC2 is slightly under that). But show counts today also is great. I am expecting 12K + reserved shows between 2 MTC. I am hoping for 550K+ finish. 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

11.6 Friday. Model works.

[keysersoze123]

Nice. This implies almost all the PWP were for GVK and that itself contributed close to 1.5 million. I Hope weekend update breaks up weekend PWP gross. 

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Nice. This implies almost all the PWP were for GVK and that itself contributed close to 1.5 million. I Hope weekend update breaks up weekend PWP gross. 

I expect $1.2-1.3M range PWPs.

 

MTC 1 & MTC 2 ratio probably reached 45% on Friday with 600+ theater expansion. Regal probably would have taken 1.5-2% of its share back and Canada getting better as well.

 

In normal times MTC 1 is around 23% while MTC 2 around 13%.

Edited April 3, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Menor the Destroyer]

33 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont have any update beyond what I provided yesterday. Final update for MTC1 was 210K but a failed partial run looked like 235-240K finish. MTC2 last run finished at 199K but a restart looked like around 205-210K. Beyond that sellouts and PWP numbers looked really good. 

 

Sellouts  - MTC1 - 3083(including non reserved shows) !!! and MTC2 - 1335 sellouts

PWP - MTC1 1837 and MTC2 -2523 // To reiterate this is not movie specific. 

 

I put 10.5-11 as raw reserved data was under 15% increase from OD. I hope I am wrong and its closer to 12m. 

 

FYI Day 4 - PWP is even better. MTC1 - 2108 MTC2 - 3210 !!! 

 

I dont have MTC data for Day 4 beyond what I posted at 5PM Pacific yesterday but PS is around OD level overall(MTC1 is slightly better and MTC2 is slightly under that). But show counts today also is great. I am expecting 12K + reserved shows between 2 MTC. I am hoping for 550K+ finish. 

 

 

If PS is close to OD level then we can expect a sizeable bump today. Maybe even 14 is possible.

Edited April 3, 2021 by Menor

[Legion Again]

If today PS are ~OD level, that’s roughly 25% up from Fri. Expecting mild PSm drop, similar PWP share, 5-15% gross increase for 12-13 day.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

3326 tickets sold for Denver so far today. Straight up comp suggests 8.89M. But note that Denver’s theaters have been open all week, none are only open on the weekends. There’s 50%+ capacity here. So, I think getting close to OD for a Denver comp is quite good considering all the factors. 

Using some guesswork to account for 600 more theaters, increased PWPs, and presumably stronger walkups, I think this will land high 10s-low 11s.

4195 tickets sold in Denver so far today. Comp says 14.63M.

[Legion Again]

15 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

4195 tickets sold in Denver so far today. Comp says 14.63M.

Is this comping to other GvK days or other Saturdays?

[Inceptionzq]

20 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Is this comping to other GvK days or other Saturdays?

GvK Friday in Denver

[titanic2187]

3 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

If today PS are ~OD level, that’s roughly 25% up from Fri. Expecting mild PSm drop, similar PWP share, 5-15% gross increase for 12-13 day.

I think it is a bit too much to ask from GvK, the past Easter weekend holdover all struggling achieve double digit growth on saturday, let alone an opener like Gvk.  

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I think it is a bit too much to ask from GvK, the past Easter weekend holdover all struggling achieve double digit growth on saturday, let alone an opener like Gvk.  

The presales are ~25% up from Friday though (from Keyser's estimates and the numbers from Inceptionzq). Doesn't mean the gross will be, but the 25% statement referred to the presales. 

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

The presales are ~25% up from Friday though (from Keyser's estimates and the numbers from Inceptionzq). Doesn't mean the gross will be, but the 25% statement referred to the presales. 

Wanda expect PSm to be lower but is that common for Saturday?

I am genuinely feeling the capacity constraint for GvK to hit higher. In that case, I would hope for softer Sunday drop benefit from spillover effect. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Wanda expect PSm to be lower but is that common for Saturday?

I am genuinely feeling the capacity constraint for GvK to hit higher. In that case, I would hope for softer Sunday drop benefit from spillover effect. 

In general Saturday PSm will be better, but when PS are up by 25%, that would probably influence the PSm lower just because it's harder to get a high multi off a high base. So it's possible it could be lower. 

Edited April 3, 2021 by Menor

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Wanda expect PSm to be lower but is that common for Saturday?

Generally a D2 Sat would see PSm rose from an OD Fri, because OD has high raw PS->lowest PSm of any day of run. 
 

But with a midweek opener, or after the first week, I’d generally expect M-Th PSm>Fri PSm> Sat/Sun PSm. 

Edited April 3, 2021 by WandaLegion

[keysersoze123]

Godzilla vs Kong Day 4 morning update

MTC1 - 133605/1031297 1454996.00 5991 shows(428 theatres) // 1700 sellouts (about half are from non reserved shows)

MTC2 - 110724/825542 1234548.25  5732 shows (294 theatres) // 385 sellouts

 

PWP MTC1 - 2108 MTC2 - 3216

 

There are another 2K shows just from non reserved theatres at MTC1. FYI 90% of the data is from 930AM Pacific or earlier. I just updated data for newly added show after noon as I am back from trekking. I am hoping for 550K combined from both MTC. That would be 22% increase today. Let us hope that happens :-)

[charlie Jatinder]

MTC 1 is a bit down from yesterday but MTC 2 is sorta flat. Not gonna try to predict MTC trend but seems flat-ish.

 

 

I am hoping for 12. If it truly end up being 550k, that will be $14.5-15m approx.

Edited April 3, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

MTC 1 is a bit down from yesterday but MTC 2 is sorta flat. Not gonna try to predict MTC trend but seems flat-ish.

 

 

I am hoping for 12. If it truly end up being 550k, that will be $14.5-15m approx.

Doesn't seem flat to me. MTC 1/2 numbers last morning were significantly lower than these. It was like 2.2 million vs 2.68 million here. Remember that those numbers Keyser posted are from the morning, just only posted now.

Edited April 3, 2021 by Menor