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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Ronin46 Box Office Gold

Ronin46

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Kalo said:

I'm sticking to my gut and saying Dune hit's just barely over $50m. which would be fantastic for DaD. I am extremely bias for this film though so my judgement my be clouded, but the buzz and PoWM is there. that DaD streaming is such a mess for this though. I feel like saying it's hits 50m with it means it would do at least $60m without it. so well see.

 

I think 50 would indicate it would have done 75. So I agree with your 60 it would have done which translates into a 40 OW (and not 50 for me). I hope it does 50 because I want to see more movies like this made with this sort of scope and imagination and I like Villeneuve. Oscars beard is also magnificent. 

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Val357 said:

I think at this point it's pretty safe to say Eternals is NOT opening over $100M. Presales aren't bad but they don't seem to be indicating anything over the biggest opening weekends we've already seen (Venom: Let There Be Carnage, Black Widow).

Safe? Definitely not. The presales aren't that far behind BW, and it should have better late bumps since the characters aren't well known. I would be quite surprised if it didn't open higher than BW. 

 

Also with the BW comparison, remember BW had an awful Sat. Eternals is opening during the school year and is theatrical exclusive, will have a much better weekend trend. 

Edited by Menor
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Kalo Global Phenomenon

Kalo

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

I think 50 would indicate it would have done 75. So I agree with your 60 it would have done which translates into a 40 OW (and not 50 for me). I hope it does 50 because I want to see more movies like this made with this sort of scope and imagination and I like Villeneuve. Oscars beard is also magnificent. 

 

If it were not DAD I think $75m is doable. high end but doable. 

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Nikostar Sleeper Hit

Nikostar

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Maybe because it does not open for 5 weeks. The schedule is getting crowded and tickets are not on sale yet. 

Oh I thought it opened on the 25th but something tells me it will follow the same pattern as most adult films this year.

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Kalo said:

 

If it were not DAD I think $75m is doable. high end but doable. 

TSS probably ~40 without HBO Max (based on the UK opening). Dune has a more committed fanbase, so spitballing would maybe add 30% with no Max? Would need to open in the high 50s to justify the 75m without Max. 

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Ronin46 Box Office Gold

Ronin46

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Kalo said:

 

If it were not DAD I think $75m is doable. high end but doable. 

 

I think without DAD it would have done 60. I think it will do 40 now. Total will be 90 to 100m domestic and maybe would have been 150m before. Such a shame. Hopefully a part 2 is made and it will make up for it then.

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 376 882 42.63%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 417 1521 27.42%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
2045 280 11737 17.42% 15 68

 

Showings added: 13

Seats added: 1346

 

AMCs sold 1296
Cinemarks sold 212
Regals sold 477
Harkins sold 60

 

NTTD comp: 7.26M

Shang-Chi comp: 8.72M

Black Widow comp: 7.71M

Dune Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 395 882 44.78%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 474 1521 31.16%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
2292 247 12224 18.75% 15 73

 

AMCs sold 1409
Cinemarks sold 242
Regals sold 549
Harkins sold 92

 

NTTD comp: 7.13M

Shang-Chi comp: 8.49M

Black Widow comp: 7.44M

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famicommander Cult Classic

famicommander

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

I think without DAD it would have done 60. I think it will do 40 now. Total will be 90 to 100m domestic and maybe would have been 150m before. Such a shame. Hopefully a part 2 is made and it will make up for it then.

The Deadline article that caused all the fuss today cites insiders saying they'd be happy with 300M worldwide. I don't think there's much chance of them missing that target at this point.

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Val357 Cult Classic

Val357

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

I am not sure about that. Its sales I believe are in front of SC and Venom at the same stage. What the movie does in the last week leading in is what will count. Thats where Venom and SC picked up and Bond died. Ticket prices are higher now. The market is also more crowded so that might mute pre sales early on when people are more concerned with getting tickets for Dune/HK/Bond etc and will be waiting for closer to OW before they purchase. Before it was 1 big movie and then a month wait for the next 1.  Now its a different environment and that might be reflective of a different pattern for presales.

That's encouraging! Thank you. I guess I was reading into people's comments wrong. I was getting kind of a "lukewarm" vibe.

 

But last week before release is what counts. Got it! Thanks again, Ronin. You've been helpful on multiple occasions since I signed up here. 

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Val357 Cult Classic

Val357

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Menor said:

Safe? Definitely not. The presales aren't that far behind BW, and it should have better late bumps since the characters aren't well known. I would be quite surprised if it didn't open higher than BW. 

 

Also with the BW comparison, remember BW had an awful Sat. Eternals is opening during the school year and is theatrical exclusive, will have a much better weekend trend. 

Thank you for this! As I told Ronin, clearly I was getting the wrong impression.

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Megaplex

 

T-2 days Thursday(58 showings): 3034(+370)/15734 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD comp: 8.39M

Shang-Chi comp: 12.59M

Black Widow comp: 9.13M

 

T-3 days Friday(164 showings): 3790(+545)/44575(+8522) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD comp: 20.50M

Shang-Chi comp: 43.59M

Black Widow comp: 25.43M

 

T-4 days Saturday(162 showings): 2284(+371)/44200(+7720) in 15 theaters

 

T-5 days Sunday(147 showings): 661(+79)/40664(+8509) in 15 theaters

Dune Megaplex

 

T-1 days Thursday(59 showings): 3485(+451)/16304(+570) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD comp: 8.90M

Shang-Chi comp: 12.41M

Black Widow comp: 9.24M

 

T-2 days Friday(164 showings): 4474(+684)/44575 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD comp: 18.64M

Shang-Chi comp: 41.23M

Black Widow comp: 24.76M

 

T-3 days Saturday(162 showings): 2830(+546)/44200 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD comp: 20.98M

 

T-4 days Sunday(147 showings): 788(+127)/40664 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD comp: 22.79M

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Ronin46 Box Office Gold

Ronin46

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Val357 said:

That's encouraging! Thank you. I guess I was reading into people's comments wrong. I was getting kind of a "lukewarm" vibe.

 

But last week before release is what counts. Got it! Thanks again, Ronin. You've been helpful on multiple occasions since I signed up here. 

 

I understand your points. Its a "muted" response to the premiere. You draw a line from that with the sales slowing down and you reach a point well under 100M. But overall sales are well in front on SC and Venom at the same stage (I belive). People will be more likely getting tickets to Dune/Venom/HK/Bond rather than buying Eternal tickets. Marvel will ramp things up. SC was going to open at 50 to 60m and had an obscure character and fairly unknown cast. Venom did not have great reviews and coming off a less than stellar original and was looking like 70M 1 week out. But both way over performed. 

Bond on the other hand was looking great 1 week out (70 plus). Has incredible IP and history and fell flat. 

 

Marvel always wins in the end. I will believe it will fail when it actually does. Until then I am always optimistic with there brand. I dont count BW as I think D+ caused it to go from 100/110 down to 80.

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Eternals Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 314 1478 21.24%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 232 1741 13.33%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1196 66 15883 7.53% 15 88

 

AMCs sold 826
Cinemarks sold 157
Regals sold 160
Harkins sold 53

 

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 11.02m

 

Doesn't look like reactions did much, except to keep it pretty flat from yesterday's increase. It was already a good boost yesterday, so I wouldn't even say that the small decrease is bad.

Eternals Thursday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total 330 1478 22.33%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 238 1741 13.67%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1264 68 15883 7.96% 15 88

 

AMCs sold 868
Cinemarks sold 173
Regals sold 165
Harkins sold 58

 

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 11.03M

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Eternals Megaplex

 

T-16 days Thursday(44 showings): 955(+87)/15020 in 14 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 6.69M

 

T-17 days Friday(86 showings): 639(+158)/31248 in 14 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 15.09M

 

T-18 days Saturday(84 showings): 321(+44)/30586 in 14 theaters

 

T-19 days Sunday(70 showings): 79/23648 in 11 theaters

 

Reactions definitely helped it here.

Eternals Megaplex

 

T-15 days Thursday(44 showings): 995(+40)/15020 in 14 theaters

 

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 6.97M

 

T-16 days Friday(86 showings): 690(+51)/31248 in 14 theaters

 

Adjusted Black Widow comp: 16.00M

 

T-17 days Saturday(84 showings): 343(+22)/30586 in 14 theaters

 

T-18 days Sunday(70 showings): 86(+7)/23648 in 11 theaters

 

Started adjusting the BW comp here(dividing by .955). Don't know why I wasn't already

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