The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[titanic2187]

<35m = Disaster

35-40m = Standard / Boring

40-45m = Not bad / Good

45m - 50m = Wow

>50m = the alarm next to my bed hasn't go off to wake me up....

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Ffs Eternals current sales are barely less in most chains.  

Did you look at megaplex data.

 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Even in Canada, Bond would be ahead. 

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

2 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

Maybe exhibitors are just talking out of their ass to drum up excitement?

 

Who the hell knows.  This is Deadline, but I do expect at least a base level of competence from them when it comes to sourced reporting.

 

What makes it even funnier is the very next sentence:

 

"From movie theaters’ P.O.V., they’re looking at a $50M domestic start, but that’s hard to call as a day-and-date film like this could be heavily front-loaded and then drop off significantly by Saturday."
 

Why would something that is "crushing" everything in pre-sales only get $50m OW (from exhibitors predictions/projections/hopes-and-wants) even if walkups are abysmal or it falls off a cliff on Sat?  Just a compare-contrast with NTTD should have given the Deadline writer a tiny bit of pause that they might be getting snowed here.

 

I get they added a equivocation about day-and-date, but NTTD alone would have raised my skepticism even if I didn't sit on a decent amount of hard pre-sale data.

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

<35m = Disaster

35-40m = Standard / Boring

40-45m = Not bad / Good

45m - 50m = Wow

>50m = the alarm next to my bed hasn't go off to wake me up....

35M is better than many people expect the whole year, and also the biggest WB opening, How this will be a disaster?

 

Boring yes, disaster never.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

<35m = Disaster

Oh hell NO.

[Starphanluke]

7 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

<35m = Disaster

35-40m = Standard / Boring

40-45m = Not bad / Good

45m - 50m = Wow

>50m = the alarm next to my bed hasn't go off to wake me up....

Those all need to shift up one lmao. "Disaster" would be like, $15-20M.

 

This thing ain't touching $50M, and I don't think anyone ever really expected it to.

Edited October 20, 2021 by Starphanluke

[Menor the Destroyer]

I keep forgetting day and date. Yeah then my Sat bump was too optimistic for sure.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Did you look at megaplex data.

 

Megaplex is sort of outlier, as was for Bond.

 

Anyhow, @Inceptionzq is also tracking Drafthouse, E is 80% of D as of yday for previews.

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, Sano said:

Seems like a lot of people on this forum have been consistently wrong in their OW predictions for a while.

you have 250 pages to read. god speed.

[Nikostar]

Deadline is about to cause some major meltdowns come Friday.

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

35M is better than many people expect the whole year, and also the biggest WB opening, How this will be a disaster?

 

Boring yes, disaster never.

And it is also the biggest marketing push WB has this year....And after all the festival play , high trailer views, improvement of delta, if this come only not much higher than TSS, yes this will be a disaster, especially after a solid overseas play. Below 35m is Maze runner-level box office that no one should envisages for a fantasy epic.

 

And don't talk to me about the HBO max viewership. They don't matter to me. Just to let you all know, a clip from The boy next door about Jennifer Lopez having sex with hot young dude generates 400m views on youtube.      

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

Deadline is about to cause some major meltdowns come Friday.

 

Nah.  Far too buried in an article and the tracking number itself is reasonable. We're just picking on it in this thread cause it's a pastime to snicker at Deadline. 👍

[Plain Old Tele]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

And don't talk to me about the HBO max viewership. They don't matter to me. 

They might not matter to you but they sure as hell matter to WB.

[TwoMisfits]

19 minutes ago, Sano said:

Seems like a lot of people on this forum have been consistently wrong in their OW predictions for a while.

 

Not really...at least not this month:)...

 

As for me personally, my Dune predict has been in the club forums, and as always, I'm not changing my mind:)...whether that goes well or not, well, I tend to make my personal calls before presales so I don't let initial subscriber rush affect me too much:)...

[Starphanluke]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Nah.  Far too buried in an article and the tracking number itself is reasonable. We're just picking on it in this thread cause it's a pastime to snicker at Deadline. 👍

Yeah, they actually gave a very reasonable number. It's just that they can't back that shit about presales up.

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

And it is also the biggest marketing push WB has this year....And after all the festival play , high trailer views, improvement of delta, if this come only not much higher than TSS, yes this will be a disaster, especially after a solid overseas play. Below 35m is Maze runner-level box office that no one should envisages for a fantasy epic.

 

And don't talk to me about the HBO max viewership. They don't matter to me. Just to let you all know, a clip from The boy next door about Jennifer Lopez having sex with hot young dude generates 400m views on youtube.      

There's a global pandemic that many markets have still not fully recovered from, and the film is releasing day one on a substantial streaming service for no extra charge in the world's 2nd largest market (and likely the #1 market for this movie unless something crazy happens in China). Those things have to be considered, no matter how much you don't want them to be. 

[famicommander]

7 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

And it is also the biggest marketing push WB has this year....And after all the festival play , high trailer views, improvement of delta, if this come only not much higher than TSS, yes this will be a disaster, especially after a solid overseas play. Below 35m is Maze runner-level box office that no one should envisages for a fantasy epic.

 

And don't talk to me about the HBO max viewership. They don't matter to me. Just to let you all know, a clip from The boy next door about Jennifer Lopez having sex with hot young dude generates 400m views on youtube.      

The Suicide Squad is the 10th movie in a 5.8 billion dollar franchise and it stars one of the most popular characters in all of comics.

 

Also, HBO Max is a premium subscription service. You can't compare US-only premium streaming numbers to worldwide Youtube hits. That's absurd.

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

Yeah, they actually gave a very reasonable number. It's just that they can't back that shit about presales up.

There's a global pandemic that many markets have still not fully recovered from, and the film is releasing day one on a substantial streaming service for no extra charge in the world's 2nd largest market (and likely the #1 market for this movie unless something crazy happens in China). Those things have to be considered, no matter how much you don't want them to be. 

HBO max is the reason why Dune number could be bad, not the excuses of why the number isn't bad. Just like TSS in the State, 26m opening is bad, it won't be a decent number just because of HBO max is out there. 

 

Fear is the mind killer and Excuse is goal destroyer. 

[ThomasNicole]

8 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

And it is also the biggest marketing push WB has this year....And after all the festival play , high trailer views, improvement of delta, if this come only not much higher than TSS, yes this will be a disaster, especially after a solid overseas play. Below 35m is Maze runner-level box office that no one should envisages for a fantasy epic.

 

And don't talk to me about the HBO max viewership. They don't matter to me. Just to let you all know, a clip from The boy next door about Jennifer Lopez having sex with hot young dude generates 400m views on youtube.      

Well this is your problem. Every single WB movie did way less than it could, if you don't accept HBO is the cause then fine, doesn't change the facts.

 

At this point what's preventing this to came to +45M OW is exactly HBO Max, like it or not. You can't compare a whole movie available "for free" for millions of people to a clip scene of a JLo movie on YouTube, wtf.

[Last Man Standing]

16 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

And it is also the biggest marketing push WB has this year....And after all the festival play , high trailer views, improvement of delta, if this come only not much higher than TSS, yes this will be a disaster, especially after a solid overseas play. Below 35m is Maze runner-level box office that no one should envisages for a fantasy epic.

 

And don't talk to me about the HBO max viewership. They don't matter to me. Just to let you all know, a clip from The boy next door about Jennifer Lopez having sex with hot young dude generates 400m views on youtube.      

35M would be like 50% more than TSS OW, how is that "not much higher"?

[famicommander]

The simple fact that WB is even considering the Wonder Woman 1984 and Mortal Kombat sequels and spinoffs they've been discussing should be proof enough that they're giving heavy consideration to HBO Max streaming. Wonder Woman did like 166M on a reported 200M budget and they're saying they've committed to a theatrical sequel and a streaming spin-off.

Edited October 20, 2021 by famicommander