The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

I think many didn't get my joke. I was saying that, "Deadline saying same numbers as mine i.e. 30-35M, probably mean that I will be wrong." There was no other serious commentary on any of Deadline mentions. 

 

As for @Sano's "I was saying 25M for Dune". I think its technically true. I was saying 25-35M, and earlier on Sunday I said its leaning toward lower end of that. I was thinking of 4.5-5M previews and (8.5-9.5 8.5-9.5 5-5.7 FSS) for 26.5-29.7M weekend. 

 

Even now, I am thinking of 4.5-5M previews, more likely 5 but FRI numbers and pace seems strong enough to crack 11M, which is sorta surprising considering BR2049 THU was 32% of OD, so was thinking around 35% for Dune, but seems like it will be low 30s. With 11M FRI, 35M is very likely. 

 

As for Dune needing $300M. Well that is sorta fine and reasonable with me and frankly is done like dinner. It will be around $220M in overseas without China. China may go on to gross $40-50M, that leaves US $30-40M to do.

 

$300M might as well be breakeven for Dune. The film cost only $165M to make, add another $150M to market and release. Its worldwide theatrical returns at $300M be $125M Approx (Actually can go for $330-340M for $150M), will probably make $25-50M from home media.  That leaves just $150M to recover which can be easily accounted to the traditional TV and day and date HBO Max release valuation. Its important this get good viewership on HBO Max however.

[famicommander]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think many didn't get my joke. I was saying that, "Deadline saying same numbers as mine i.e. 30-35M, probably mean that I will be wrong." There was no other serious commentary on any of Deadline mentions. 

 

As for @Sano's "I was saying 25M for Dune". I think its technically true. I was saying 25-35M, and earlier on Sunday I said its leaning toward lower end of that. I was thinking of 4.5-5M previews and (8.5-9.5 8.5-9.5 5-5.7 FSS) for 26.5-29.7M weekend. 

 

Even now, I am thinking of 4.5-5M previews, more likely 5 but FRI numbers and pace seems strong enough to crack 11M, which is sorta surprising considering BR2049 THU was 32% of OD, so was thinking around 35% for Dune, but seems like it will be low 30s. With 11M FRI, 35M is very likely. 

 

As for Dune needing $300M. Well that is sorta fine and reasonable with me and frankly is done like dinner. It will be around $220M in overseas without China. China may go on to gross $40-50M, that leaves US $30-40M to do.

 

$300M might as well be breakeven for Dune. The film cost only $165M to make, add another $150M to market and release. Its worldwide theatrical returns at $300M be $125M Approx (Actually can go for $330-340M for $150M), will probably make $25-50M from home media.  That leaves just $150M to recover which can be easily accounted to the traditional TV and day and date HBO Max release valuation. Its important this get good viewership on HBO Max however.

Worth noting that Deadline previously reported Godzilla vs Kong's break-even was 330M. Seems like a pretty reasonable comparison considering it had the same 165M budget, it was a day one HBO Max 2021 release, and it's a Legendary/Warner joint just like Dune. Obviously Dune isn't going to do GvK's insane numbers in China but it's going to beat it in Europe and has a chance to match it in the US.

[Rorschach]

Dune (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

 

Thursday:

IMAX showings: 84/776

6:00 P.M.: 64/388

9:45 P.M.: 20/388

 

2D showings: 65/648

6:30 P.M.: 45/135

7:30 P.M.: 9/67

8:00 P.M.: 0/85

8:30 P.M.: 0/85

9:30 P.M.: 0/141

10:15 P.M.: 11/135

Total Sold: 149/1,424 (10.5% sold)

 

Comps:

Black Widow: $3.33 mil

The Suicide Squad: $5.82 mil

Shang-Chi: $4.28 mil

Venom 2: $4.52 mil

No Time to Die: $6.75 mil

Average: $4.94 mil

 

Friday:

IMAX showings: 164/1,552

11:15 A.M.: 13/388

3:00 P.M.: 26/388

6:45 P.M.: 108/388

10:25 P.M.: 17/388

 

3D Showings: 0/67

9:40 P.M.: 0/67

 

2D showings: 113/1,143

10:00 A.M.: 6/135

10:30 A.M.: 3/67

12:00 P.M.: 0/67

12:45 P.M.: 1/67

1:45 P.M.: 11/135

2:15 P.M.: 0/67

3:45 P.M.: 0/67

4:30 P.M.: 4/67

5:30 P.M.: 28/135

5:55 P.M.: 9/67

7:30 P.M.: 27/67

8:10 P.M.: 4/67

9:15 P.M.: 20/135

Total Sold: 277/2,762 (10% sold)

 

Thurs + Fri: 426/4,186 (10.2% sold)

 

Comps:

Black Widow: $13.97 mil

The Suicide Squad: $30.63 mil

Shang-Chi: $22.6 mil

Venom 2: $22.51 mil

No Time to Die: $26.27 mil

Average: $23.2 mil

 

These numbers are pretty much on par with how No Time to Die performed here, just slightly higher. After a whole year of not cracking the $35 mil OW mark, it's so crazy to think this'll likely be the first WB film to do it. Whatever the final result ends up being, I'm pretty confident it'll be one that'll make the studio and everyone else happy. 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ron’s Gone Wrong (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

 

Thursday:

6:00 P.M.: 3/238

8:55 P.M.: 3/238

Total Sold: 6/476 (1.26% sold)

 

Friday:

10:15 A.M.: 10/238

1:10 P.M.: 0/238

4:05 P.M.: 2/238

7:00 P.M.: 10/238

9:55 P.M.: 0/238

Total Sold: 22/1,190 (1.85% sold)

 

Thurs + Fri: 28/1,666 (1.68% sold)

 

Comps:

The Addams Family 2: $2.19 mil

 

With these numbers, it's a very aptly named film.

Edited October 21, 2021 by Rorschach

[keysersoze123]

On 10/19/2021 at 9:19 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Dune MTC1

Previews(T-2) -  59641/318065 1066077.01 1744 shows

Friday(T-3) - 71486/709417 1246210.44 3863 shows

Dune MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 68917/324093 1217446.89 1785 shows

Friday(T-2) - 84455/718161 1455649.59 3922 shows

 

On to final day. Nothing more to add beyond what I said yesterday.

 

 

[Kalo]

7 hours ago, Ronin46 said:

 

I think without DAD it would have done 60. I think it will do 40 now. Total will be 90 to 100m domestic and maybe would have been 150m before. Such a shame. Hopefully a part 2 is made and it will make up for it then.

 

https://wegotthiscovered.com/movies/dunes-sequel-is-reportedly-already-greenlit/

[Eric Duncan]

On 10/19/2021 at 11:54 PM, Eric Atreides said:

Dune Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	52	1518	9307	16.31%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 12

Total Seats Added Today: 1,519

Total Seats Sold Today: 207

 

Comp

0.783x of F9 T-2 (5.56M)

0.354x of Black Widow T-2 (4.67M)

1.690x of The Suicide Squad T-2 (6.93M)

0.578x of Shang-Chi T-2 (5.08M)

0.702x of Venom 2 T-2 (8.14M)

0.812x of No Time to Die T-2 (5.12M)

 

Sigh...Jason Kilar, why must you torment me this way?

Dune Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	52	1760	9307	18.91%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 242

 

Comp

0.697x of F9 T-1 (4.95M)

0.342x of Black Widow T-1 (4.52M)

1.609x of The Suicide Squad T-1 (6.59M)

0.543x of Shang-Chi T-1 (4.78M)

0.591x of Venom 2 T-1 (6.85M)

0.763x of No Time to Die T-1 (4.81M)

 

You know...maybe the marketing campaign pushing for everybody to see this on the biggest screen possible wasn't the smartest idea in the world.

[famicommander]

24 minutes ago, Kalo said:

 

https://wegotthiscovered.com/movies/dunes-sequel-is-reportedly-already-greenlit/

I don't doubt that the decision has been made but I can tell you with 100% certainty that We Got This Covered is a horrible, horrible source. Take a look at this Twitter thread for one example among many as to why:

 

 

EDIT:

I see WGTC is just piggybacking on someone else's actual report:
https://www.giantfreakinrobot.com/ent/exclusive-dune-2.html

 

I am not familiar with the primary source on this one.

Edited October 21, 2021 by famicommander

[Eric Duncan]

On 10/19/2021 at 11:57 PM, Eric Atreides said:

Ron's Gone Wrong Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	25	21	3122	0.67%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 6

Total Seats Added Today: 859

Total Seats Sold Today: 7

 

Comp

0.344x of Addams Family 2 T-2 (189K)

Ron's Gone Wrong Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	25	29	3122	0.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 8

 

Comp

0.276x of Addams Family 2 T-1 (152K)

[Eric Duncan]

On 10/20/2021 at 12:03 AM, Eric Atreides said:

Eternals Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	58	1446	11831	12.22%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 270

Total Seats Sold Today: 90

 

Comp

0.841x of Black Widow T-16 (11.1M)

2.048x of Shang-Chi T-16 (18.02M)

Eternals Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	58	1530	11831	12.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 84

 

Comp

0.866x of Black Widow T-15 (11.43M)

1.846x of Shang-Chi T-15 (16.24M)

[Kalo]

15 minutes ago, famicommander said:

I don't doubt that the decision has been made but I can tell you with 100% certainly that We Got This Covered is a horrible, horrible source. Take a look at this Twitter thread for one example among many as to why:

 

 

EDIT:

I see WGTC is just piggybacking on someone else's actual report:
https://www.giantfreakinrobot.com/ent/exclusive-dune-2.html

 

I am not familiar with the primary source on this one.

 

Yeah it's not the greatest. not the first source I heard it from through https://www.giantfreakinrobot.com/ent/exclusive-dune-2.html

 

Not sure if giant freakin robot is much better. but It seems it is pretty likely atm tbh, if it can make $90m+ in the US plus it's already done fairly well internationally and is probably going to be quite popular on HBOMAX as well. 

[charlie Jatinder]

56 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 68917/324093 1217446.89 1785 shows

Friday(T-2) - 84455/718161 1455649.59 3922 shows

 

On to final day. Nothing more to add beyond what I said yesterday.

A bit soft THU bump. FRI seems fine.

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, Rorschach said:

With these numbers, it's a very aptly named film.

[charlie Jatinder]

I will do actual post when we get MTC2 numbers, but

 

1 day prior to release, Dune has ~$9.5M pre-sales in US/CAN.

 

At same time

Black Widow - $21M
Shang Chi - $16M
Venom 2 - $15M
NTTD - $14M
F9 - $12M

Edited October 21, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[famicommander]

20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I will do actual post when we get MTC2 numbers, but

 

1 day prior to release, Dune has ~$9.5M pre-sales in US/CAN.

 

At same time

Black Widow - $21M
Shang Chi - $16M
Venom 2 - $15M
NTTD - $14M
F9 - $12M

Do you have comparisons from the other day one HBO Max films? Godzilla vs Kong, Mortal Kombat, Conjuring 3, Space Jam, Suicide Squad?

[Porthos]

On 10/19/2021 at 10:58 PM, Porthos said:

 

Eternals Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	96	13774	15530*	1756	11.31%

* One theater adjusted its seat maps, resulting in a reduction of 11 seats available in the region.

 

Total Seats Sold Today

137

 

T-16 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	71.32		84	2273		0/117	16861/19134	11.88%		9.86m
Eternals (adj)	---		126	1621		0/87	12587/14208	11.41%		---

COMP NOTE: The Eternals comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for three more days than Eternals' tickets have been on sale.

 

Regal: 393/4570 [8.60% sold] [+59 tickets]

 

====

 

VERY nice social media boost. 👍

 

 

Eternals Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	96	13658	15541*	1883	12.12%

* One theater re-adjusted its seat maps, resulting in a additon of 11 seats available in the region.

 

Total Seats Sold Today

127

 

T-15 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	72.83		108	2381		0/117	16753/19134	12.44%		10.07m
Eternals (adj)	---		113	1734		0/87	12474/14208	12.20%		---

COMP NOTE: The Eternals comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for three more days than Eternals' tickets have been on sale.

 

Regal: 393/4570 [8.60% sold] [+59 tickets]

 

===

 

Another great day of post-social media embargo boost.

 

Think I'll bring back Shang-Chi comp tomorrow, even though it'll still be pretty out of whack (though, to be far, so is the Black Widow comp atm).

Edited October 22, 2021 by Porthos

[DAJK]

I’m sure Charlie can attest to this but Dune is overindexing in Canada compared to other films recently. Also, BC is one of the strongest regions in the country for it, and I live in the heart of where Dune is performing the strongest.

 

So my comps won’t really matter, but this movie’s still killing it here.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	109	13069	14811	1742	11.76%

 

Total Showings Added Today	173
Total Seats Added Today	1632
Total Seats Sold Today	235

 

T-2 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
NTTD	76.88		385	2266		0/176	22219/24485	9.25%		4.77m
SC	53.13		490	3279		0/183	21325/24604	13.33%		4.68m
V2	46.39		718	3755		0/241	29214/32969	11.39%		5.38m

 

T-2 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	65.41		397	2460		0/143	15720/18180	13.53%		4.86m
Dune (adj)	---		213	1609		0/99	11786/13395	12.01%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

 

Regal: 440/5277 [8.34% sold] [+62 tickets]

 

===

 

Not a very good day locally, I'm afraid...

 

Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 Day and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	109	12686	14793*	2107	14.24%

* NOTE:  A theater switched one of their showings to a smaller auditorium, resulting in 18 fewer seats available region wide.

 

Total Seats Sold Today

365

 

T-1 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
NTTD	74.66		556	2822		1/178	21896/24718	11.42%		4.63m
SC	50.07		929	4208		1/183	20777/24985	16.84%		4.41m
V2	41.10		1372	5127		0/244	28009/33136	15.47%		4.77m

 

T-1 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9	66.67		439	2899		0/168	17632/20531	14.12%		4.96m
Dune (adj)	---		324	1933		0/99	11444/13377	14.45%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

 

Regal: 531/5259 [10.10% sold] [+91 tickets]

 

===

 

Sigh.  At least the F9 comp went up?

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I’m sure Charlie can attest to this but Dune is overindexing in Canada compared to other films recently. Also, BC is one of the strongest regions in the country for it, and I live in the heart of where Dune is performing the strongest.

 

So my comps won’t really matter, but this movie’s still killing it here.

I think we warned the comps beforehand. BR2049 was 17% of North America in Canada. NTTD comps will work perfect for this.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, famicommander said:

I see WGTC is just piggybacking on someone else's actual report:
https://www.giantfreakinrobot.com/ent/exclusive-dune-2.html

 

I am not familiar with the primary source on this one.

 

1 hour ago, Kalo said:

 

Yeah it's not the greatest. not the first source I heard it from through https://www.giantfreakinrobot.com/ent/exclusive-dune-2.html

 

Not sure if giant freakin robot is much better. but It seems it is pretty likely atm tbh, if it can make $90m+ in the US plus it's already done fairly well internationally and is probably going to be quite popular on HBOMAX as well. 

 

Just by general reputation, Giant Freakin' Robot is better than WGTC, though that's not saying much.  I seem to recall over at reddit they have informal tiers for leakers nowadays.  Maybe over at the Marvel Studio Spoilers subreddit?  I've seen said list referenced over at SW Leaks, though as I said I don't know how formalized it is.

 

Maybe B-/C+?  Not garbage tier, that's for sure.  But maybe closer to "file away for later but don't take as gospel" with a side dash of "better on some geek/nerd properties than others".  I know @Inceptionzq is on reddit a decent amount, so he might have some insight on their reliability. 

[Inceptionzq]

I’m not sure about them. I’ve seen them mentioned once or twice before this, and I don’t believe it was in a positive light. But I rarely venture into other leak/spoiler subreddits outside of SW leaks.