The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Inceptionzq]

On 10/20/2021 at 3:29 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Megaplex

 

T-1 days Thursday(59 showings): 3485(+451)/16304(+570) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD comp: 8.90M

Shang-Chi comp: 12.41M

Black Widow comp: 9.24M

Dune Megaplex Thursday(74 showings)

 

5001(+1516)/18245(+1941) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD comp: 7.75M

Shang-Chi comp: 10.34M

Black Widow comp: 7.97M

 

Same thing here. If only. But looks like it'll be Megaplex's second biggest movie of the year behind BW.

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT): [12:00pm - 12:20pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	109	12402	14793	2391	16.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

284

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
NTTD [12-12:35]	76.51		303	3125		1/178	21593/24718	12.64%		4.74m
TSS [12:00-12:45]	143.17		327	1670		0/111	15173/16843	9.92%		5.87m
SC [12:00-12:55]	49.38		634	4842		1/192	20608/25450	19.03%		4.35m
V2 [12:00-12:50]	36.93		1346	6473		3/247	27183/33656	19.23%		4.28m

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9 [12:00-12:45]	64.54		491	3390		0/170	17331/20721	16.36%		4.80m
Dune (adj)	---		255	2188		0/99	11189/13377	16.36%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

 

Regal: 622/5259 [11.83% sold] [+91 tickets]

 

====

 

"Not great, not terrible."

 

Anywho, zeroing in on just what the hell the local SMG is currently capping at (been watching it off and on the last couple of weeks) and should I become satisfied with a number, I'll adjust all prior movies where it mattered, which should raise the comps of NTTD, V2, and SC a bit.  Not gonna move it a whole hell of a lot, tho.

 

For those who care:

 

PLF: 1386/4901 [28.28% sold] | 57.97% of all tickets sold.

3D:      65/1198 [5.43% sold]   |   2.72% of all tickets sold. (lol) 

 

Dune Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT): [5:10pm - 5:30pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	109	11878	14793	2915	19.71%

 

Total Showings Reaching Cap Since Mid-Day	1
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	524

 

T-0 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
NTTD [3:50-4:25]	78.00		648	3737		0/178	20981/24718	15.12%		4.84m
TSS [5:40-6:10]	124.94		682	2352		0/111	14491/16843	13.96%		5.08m
SC [4:40-5:30]	49.85		1041	5847		0/196	19856/25703	22.75%		4.39m
V2 [3:50-4:35]	37.80		1369	7712		0/249	26023/33735	22.86%		4.38m

 

T-0 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
F9 [5:30-6:10]	60.25		1017	4407		0/161	15341/19748	22.32%		4.48m
Dune (adj)	---		467	2655		0/99	10722/13377	19.85%		---

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in F9's track.

 

Regal: 763/5259 [14.51% sold] [+141 tickets]

 

PLF:  1580/4901 [32.24% sold] | 54.20% of all seats sold

 

====

 

A decent enough day but still off the pace of NTTD locally.  Plugged in some rudimentary guesstimates for what SMG is capping at, otherwise the comps would be worse.  About 10% more PLFs locally for Dune versus NTTD (that was 43.77% of all tickets sold), and it might be underperforming here so let's call for an even 5m +/- .3m.

 

CBMs would suggest something lower, but I reckon there aren't quite as many children's tickets being sold for Dune as there are for the non-R rated CBMs so I'll use NTTD plus a smidge. 

 

Wish it was higher, but data is what the data is.

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

*Watches lonely from BC*

Im sure another BCer (is that a word?)will be around who follows the box office, give it time!

 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Im sure another BCer (is that a word?)will be around who follows the box office, give it time!

 

I am in BCer in spirit if that matter.

[DAJK]

Dune is around 93% of Bond tonight at my theater.

[Eric Duncan]

21 hours ago, Eric Atreides said:

Eternals Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	58	1530	11831	12.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 84

 

Comp

0.866x of Black Widow T-15 (11.43M)

1.846x of Shang-Chi T-15 (16.24M)

Eternals Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	59	1576	11921	13.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 46

 

Comp

0.852x of Black Widow T-14 (11.24M)

1.777x of Shang-Chi T-14 (15.64M)

 

I mean it probably would have gone down after the reaction hype died down, but it's still a wee bit too low for my taste.

[Cap]

Dune Comps

 

Regal: Fox Run Mall

Total: 208/707

 

BW: 436/858 || 47.71% - 6.29M

SC: 405/780 ||  51.35 - 4.52M

VLTBC: 231/894 ||  111% - 12.88M

NTTD: 175/772 || 84.13% - 5.3M

 

Average: 7.25M

Average W/O Venom: 5.37M

 

 

Falmouth Flagship

Total: 108 / 172

 

BW: 252/399 || 5.6M

SC: 154/218 ||  6.17M

VLTBC: 82/191 || 15.28M

NTTD: 113/268 || 6.59M

 

Average Comp:  8.41M

Average W/O Venom: 6.12M

 

Couple things we learned from the Data.  The Northeast is bonkers for Tentacle Porn cause Geeez that Venom outliner! Hopefully they're just as in Oscar Issacs.  But once you take it out, you get a better picture.  I'd say put me down for 6M.

 

***

 

Little bit more Business.  Since this was the first BIG release for my Movie Theater (YAY!) I have data for that chain as well.  I also decided to do the entire Apple Cinemas Chain (No Relation to Your Phone), so that's gonna be tracking 11 theaters across five states up in New England.  Once I get that sorted out more, I'll post it.  But the jist is the theaters are healthy.  We had about 100 tickets sold for the IMAX tonight and 150 old for Westbrook.  SO, good showing there.  

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, No Eternals Spoilers 4 Cap said:

Apple Cinemas Chain (No Relation to Your Phone)

Catchy

[Menor the Destroyer]

Dune at MTC2 is at 56030/261888, $745765. Will probably final at 58k. Definitely slowed down in the late hours (runtime also might contribute to that). Will finish around 90% of Bond, though with MTC1 doing better, I will stick with ~5m. 

 

Friday final PS is looking like ~52k though I won't have full numbers tonight. Running about 70% of Bond pretty consistently, so I think 11-12m seems likely for true Friday. Hopefully MTC1 is better. 

 

Edited October 22, 2021 by Menor

[keysersoze123]

20 minutes ago, No Eternals Spoilers 4 Cap said:

Dune Comps

 

Regal: Fox Run Mall

Total: 208/707

 

BW: 436/858 || 47.71% - 6.29M

SC: 405/780 ||  51.35 - 4.52M

VLTBC: 231/894 ||  111% - 12.88M

NTTD: 175/772 || 84.13% - 5.3M

 

Average: 7.25M

Average W/O Venom: 5.37M

 

 

Falmouth Flagship

Total: 108 / 172

 

BW: 252/399 || 5.6M

SC: 154/218 ||  6.17M

VLTBC: 82/191 || 15.28M

NTTD: 113/268 || 6.59M

 

Average Comp:  8.41M

Average W/O Venom: 6.12M

 

Couple things we learned from the Data.  The Northeast is bonkers for Tentacle Porn cause Geeez that Venom outliner! Hopefully they're just as in Oscar Issacs.  But once you take it out, you get a better picture.  I'd say put me down for 6M.

 

***

 

Little bit more Business.  Since this was the first BIG release for my Movie Theater (YAY!) I have data for that chain as well.  I also decided to do the entire Apple Cinemas Chain (No Relation to Your Phone), so that's gonna be tracking 11 theaters across five states up in New England.  Once I get that sorted out more, I'll post it.  But the jist is the theaters are healthy.  We had about 100 tickets sold for the IMAX tonight and 150 old for Westbrook.  SO, good showing there.  

Awesome User name for sure :-)

 

 

Dune MTC1

Previews Final - 94843/326874 1615809.43 1822 shows

Friday PS final - 107136/728057 1811176.50 4026 shows

 

1st off all previews did taper off after it looked like hitting 100K tickets early on. I am thinking low 5's(~5.3m  ) from my perspective. its tad above 30% gross from Suicide Squad final as well. Strong Canada and few other minor chains balance weak MTC2. 

 

Its PS is more than 90% in gross compared to NTTD. Similar walkups should take it close to 15m but let us see how things go. Should be suffice for OW around low to mid 40s. Not bad after it looked worse couple of days ago. 

[Cap]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Awesome User name for sure 🙂

 

It's all part of my Admin Style.  I'm all for open and clear conversation.  I just want to make sure that everyone knows no one is talking to me about this movie until November 5!!!  And that thread is off limits.  Eric can handle it.  I'm not going in there.  LOL.

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Awesome User name for sure 🙂

 

 

Dune MTC1

Previews Final - 94843/326874 1615809.43 1822 shows

Friday PS final - 107136/728057 1811176.50 4026 shows

 

1st off all previews did taper off after it looked like hitting 100K tickets early on. I am thinking low 5's(~5.3m  ) from my perspective. its tad above 30% gross from Suicide Squad final as well. Strong Canada and few other minor chains balance weak MTC2. 

 

Its PS is more than 90% in gross compared to NTTD. Similar walkups should take it close to 15m but let us see how things go. Should be suffice for OW around low to mid 40s. Not bad after it looked worse couple of days ago. 

You didn't have Bond final Thu right? I thought it would have been higher than that but it did crash at night.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

You didn't have Bond final Thu right? I thought it would have been higher than that but it did crash at night.

I am not 100% sure about my bond final. I have it at 96921/510183 1594243.41 but it could be missing few shows of data. Anyway Dune is tad up from it. Anyway I went with SS to project as it was skewed towards MTC1. MTC2 should make pause but overperformance in canada/megaplex makes me think it will go up a bit from what MTC2 is saying. We will know for sure tomorrow. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Dune Harkins Report

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	40	8,098	1,222	15.09%	$14,927	$12.22
Cine 1	14	3,759	1,688	44.91%	$24,257	$14.37
IMAX	3	1,335	722	54.08%	$10,830	$15.00
Total	57	13,192	3,632	27.53%	$50,014	$13.77

 

Very IMAX and PLF heavy. 3 IMAX shows has 27%+ gross of 51 shows I tracked of 8 cinemas. IMAX 3rd show is at 1AM so that will need recheck.

 

Halloween Kills without any PLF or IMAX had 4,297 admits in regular 8 cinemas, while this has 3,035 i.e. 70%. Gross is 78%. 

 

Removing IMAX theater, i.e. Arizona Mills, gross is 60% of Halloween Kills and 44% of Shang Chi. I guess around $75-80K in Harkins. Better than NTTD. Thinking $5-5.25M previews.

Edited October 22, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Inceptionzq]

7 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Megaplex

 

T-1 days Friday(167 showings): 5441(+967)/45004(+429) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD comp: 17.27M

Black Widow comp: 22.78M

Dune Megaplex Friday(170 showings)

 

6366(+925)/45490(+486) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD comp: 16.15M

Black Widow comp: 19.60M

 

I may have to take back what I said about this being the second biggest opener of the year for Megaplex. NTTD will beat it with this pace. Still gonna be close though

Edited October 22, 2021 by Inceptionzq

[Legion Again]

2 hours ago, Menor said:

11-12m seems likely for true Friday

 

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

close to 15m

Harrumph 🤔   
 

Guess I’ll treat that as 13 😛 
 

 

[Porthos]

On 10/20/2021 at 11:14 PM, Porthos said:

 

Eternals Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	96	13658	15541*	1883	12.12%

* One theater re-adjusted its seat maps, resulting in a additon of 11 seats available in the region.

 

Total Seats Sold Today

127

 

T-15 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	72.83		108	2381		0/117	16753/19134	12.44%		10.07m
Eternals (adj)	---		113	1734		0/87	12474/14208	12.20%		---

COMP NOTE: The Eternals comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for three more days than Eternals' tickets have been on sale.

 

Regal: 393/4570 [8.60% sold] [+59 tickets]

 

===

 

Another great day of post-social media embargo boost.

 

Think I'll bring back Shang-Chi comp tomorrow, even though it'll still be pretty out of whack (though, to be far, so is the Black Widow comp atm).

 

Eternals Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	96	13542	15541	1999	12.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

116

 

T-14 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
SC	206.72		121	967		0/101	16035/17002	5.69%		18.19m

PRE-SALE NOTE: Eternals' tickets have been on sale for seven more days than Shang-Chi' tickets have been on sale.

 

T-14 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	73.94		106	2487		0/117	16647/19134	13.00%		10.22m
Eternals (adj)	---		105	1839		0/87	12369/14208	12.94%		---

COMP NOTE: The Eternals comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: DUNE (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps in this point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Black Widow's tickets have been on sale for three more days than Eternals' tickets have been on sale.

 

Regal: 456/4570 [9.98% sold] [+63 tickets]

 

====

 

Just keeps chugging along here in Sacto.  Decided to rope in the Shang-Chi comp, even though it's pretty LOL-tastic right now.  Then again, the Black Widow comp ain't exactly gold standard right now, either.  

 

All in all, still smooth sailing here.

[charlie Jatinder]

Anecdotally, I think sort of films in current schedule impact the run of sales. Shang Chi and Widow presales for most part had very soft competition from the current releases of those week. October however has been very full with good number of releases, I suppose GA will spend money on current film first rather than putting it 2 weeks in advance.

[Legion Again]

A lot of different things are possible from here, especially if reviews are soft. ButI am still sort of thinking 14+ with better final week growth and ATP than BW.

Edited October 22, 2021 by Let There Be Legion

[Krissykins]

$5m previews and a $40m opening weekend would be good for Dune and Warner Bros, all things considered.