The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-7 days Thursday(272 showings): 26415(+380, +1.46%)/34849

 

Eternals final comp: 24.98M

 

Daily pace comparison: 2.28x Eternals T-8 (+167, +3.14%)

 

T-8 days Friday(319 showings): 23897(+524, +2.24%)/42552

 

Eternals final comp: 38.90M

 

Daily pace comparison: 2.35x Eternals T-9 (+223, +4.61%)

 

T-9 days Saturday(355 showings): 23563(+768, +3.37%)/47103

 

Eternals final comp: 38.10M

 

Daily pace comparison: 4.09x Eternals T-10 (+188, +3.84%)

 

T-10 days Sunday(295 showings): 12570(+662, +5.56%)/39325

 

Daily pace comparison: 8.17x Eternals T-11 (+81, +2.83%)

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-6 days Thursday(282 showings): 26918(+503, +1.90%)/36004(+1155)

 

Eternals final comp: 25.46M

 

Daily pace comparison: 2.15x Eternals T-6 (+234, +4.26%)

 

T-7 days Friday(328 showings): 24829(+932, +3.90%)/43120(+568)

 

Eternals final comp: 40.41M

 

Daily pace comparison: 2.67x Eternals T-7 (+349, +6.90%)

 

T-8 days Saturday(360 showings): 24786(+1223, +5.19%)/47804(+701)

 

Eternals final comp: 40.07M

 

Daily pace comparison: 5.71x Eternals T-8 (+214, +4.21%)

 

T-9 days Sunday(300 showings): 13494(+924, +7.35%)/40028(+703)

 

Daily pace comparison: 6.16x Eternals T-9 (+150, +5.09%)

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, Eric Feels Pretty said:

Morbius is a Marvel movie. When people see “Marvel” they turn into robots and automatically go to it. It’ll make bajillions and we all know it

 

I feel like that's what everyone assumes, but forget that characters like Venom and Spider-Man have been insanely popular forever. 

 

Morbius feels like Fant4stic to me, but apparently I'm in the minority on that one!

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Morbius feels like Fant4stic to me, but apparently I'm in the minority on that one!

I don't think it'll be that bad because it gets to tie into an enormous franchise that had 2 films come out in the preceding 4 months, one of which will be the biggest film since Endgame (domestically, at least). 

 

[Pinacolada]

Tom Hardy is most definitely in Morbius and I just want to get him the hell out of there

[Deep Wang]

12 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

I don't think it'll be that bad because it gets to tie into an enormous franchise that had 2 films come out in the preceding 4 months, one of which will be the biggest film since Endgame (domestically, at least). 

 

 

I'm sure that will help a lot, but at the end of the day it's Morbius.  I just don't see it, just like I'm not gonna see the movie lol.

[Inceptionzq]

On 12/9/2021 at 4:41 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Matrix Resurrections Wednesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

198

794

24.94%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

141

1036

13.61%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
805	218	10018	8.04%	15	63

 

AMCs sold	534
Cinemarks sold	66
Regals sold	136
Harkins sold	69

 

Don't have any good comps for this... But it's ahead of Dune's day 4 now

Matrix Resurrections Wednesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

223

794

28.09%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

143

1036

13.80%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
901	96	10302	8.75%	15	64

 

AMCs sold	590
Cinemarks sold	87
Regals sold	149
Harkins sold	75

 

96.78% of Dune T-12. Not gonna put the actual value of the comp since it's previews vs OD, but I think it'll be a decent indicator of how it's doing for now

[Inceptionzq]

On 12/9/2021 at 4:43 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Matrix Resurrections Megaplex

 

T-13 days Wednesday(40 showings): 508(+208)/8906 in 10 theaters

 

T-14 days Thursday(36 showings): 177(+55)/8294 in 9 theaters

 

T-15 days Friday(26 showings): 94(+13)/5436 in 9 theaters

 

T-16 days Saturday(37 showings): 94(+30)/8029 in 9 theaters

 

T-17 days Sunday(25 showings): 23(+12)/4882(+680) in 6 theaters

Matrix Resurrections Megaplex

 

T-12 days Wednesday(49 showings): 580(+72)/10551(+1645) in 12 theaters

 

T-13 days Thursday(45 showings): 198(+21)/9939(+1645) in 11 theaters

 

T-14 days Friday(26 showings): 114(+20)/5436 in 9 theaters

 

T-15 days Saturday(39 showings): 126(+32)/8861(+832) in 9 theaters

 

T-16 days Sunday(25 showings): 27(+4)/4882 in 6 theaters

[Inceptionzq]

On 12/9/2021 at 4:48 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Matrix Resurrections Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-13 days Wednesday(90 showings): 3532(+616)/11765(+652)

 

T-14 days Thursday(87 showings): 1901(+483)/10840(+749)

 

T-15 days Friday(53 showings): 543(+166)/6175(+590)

 

T-16 days Saturday(70 showings): 854(+216)/7840(+310)

 

T-17 days Sunday(58 showings): 436(+121)/6744(+310)

Matrix Resurrections Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-12 days Wednesday(90 showings): 3784(+252)/11765

 

T-13 days Thursday(87 showings): 2132(+231)/10840

 

T-14 days Friday(53 showings): 612(+69)/6175

 

T-15 days Saturday(70 showings): 972(+118)/7840

 

T-16 days Sunday(58 showings): 508(+72)/6744

[ZackM]

Spider-Man: No Way Home Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago
Showings Added	205	275
Seats Added	20,008	24,954
Seats Sold	13,783	12,603
12/10/2021	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	433	7,782	605,056	1,231,147	49.15%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	88	719	1,492	2,382	3,295

Edited December 14, 2021 by ZackM

[Porthos]

On 12/9/2021 at 11:34 PM, Porthos said:

 

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 Days and Counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	0	325	20446	39120	18674	47.74%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

445

 

As of T-7, No Way Home has sold...

2.0307x as many tickets as Black Widow  did at stop of tracking.             [28.07m]*

3.1938x as many tickets as Shang-Chi did at stop of tracking.                 [28.11m]

2.4214x as many tickets as Let There Be Carnage did at stop of tracking. [28.09m]

2.9137x as many tickets as Eternals did at stop of tracking.                     [27.68m]

* [adj for Ontario]

 

T-7 Adjusted Comp 

[Made under OFFICIAL PROTEST]  [***100% use at own risk*** — see cautionary note below]

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
EG	84.79		240	19469		18/243	5107/24576	79.22%		50.87m
TROS	115.33		256	15355		5/213	9341/24696	62.18%		46.13m
NWH (EG adj)	---		393	16697		0/325	17274/33971	49.15%		---
NWH (SW adj)	---		412	17709		0/325	18018/35727	49.57%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NWH (EG adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year, a theater which converted to reserved seating this year as well as making an on-the-fly adjustment for a theater which I had partial data for EG and has now shut down and been replaced by another theater a mile a way [for this I am doing only a PLF-PLF comparison for the theater in question]

ADJUSTMENT NOTE #2: NWH (SW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year as well as a theater that which converted to reserved seating this year.  The theater which has been replaced is 100% included in this comp. 

CAUTIONARY 2021 COMPS NOTE:  ***ALL*** Sacramento 2021 comps when compared to similar pre-COVID movies have been running higher than what has actually been reported.  ABSOLUTELY KEEP THIS IN MIND THAT THIS COMP COULD VERY WELL BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 15 to 20 PERCENT, or even more.   See here for explanation.

 

Regal:       5034/12528 [40.93% sold] [+94 tickets]

Matinee:    1849/5174  [35.74% sold | 9.90% of all tickets sold]

 

No Way Home Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 Days and Counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	1	325	19887	39120	19233	49.16%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	1
Total Seats Sold Today	559

 

As of T-6, No Way Home has sold...

2.0915x as many tickets as Black Widow  did at stop of tracking.             [28.91m]*

3.2893x as many tickets as Shang-Chi did at stop of tracking.                 [28.95m]

2.4939x as many tickets as Let There Be Carnage did at stop of tracking. [28.93m]

3.0009x as many tickets as Eternals did at stop of tracking.                     [28.51m]

* [adj for Ontario]

 

T-6 Adjusted Comp 

[Made under OFFICIAL PROTEST]  [***100% use at own risk*** — see cautionary note below]

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
EG	87.32		223	19692		20/243	4884/24576	80.13%		52.39m
TROS	117.07		214	15569		6/213	9129/24698	63.04%		46.83m
NWH (EG adj)	---		498	17195		1/325	16776/33971	50.62%		---
NWH (SW adj)	---		518	18227		1/325	17500/35727	51.02%		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: NWH (EG adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year, a theater which converted to reserved seating this year as well as making an on-the-fly adjustment for a theater which I had partial data for EG and has now shut down and been replaced by another theater a mile a way [for this I am doing only a PLF-PLF comparison for the theater in question]

ADJUSTMENT NOTE #2: NWH (SW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include DBOX tracking which started earlier this year as well as a theater that which converted to reserved seating this year.  The theater which has been replaced is 100% included in this comp. 

CAUTIONARY 2021 COMPS NOTE:  ***ALL*** Sacramento 2021 comps when compared to similar pre-COVID movies have been running higher than what has actually been reported.  ABSOLUTELY KEEP THIS IN MIND THAT THIS COMP COULD VERY WELL BE OFF BY AS MUCH AS 15 to 20 PERCENT, or even more.   See here for explanation.

 

Regal:       5257/12528 [41.96% sold] [+223 tickets]

Matinee:    1920/5174  [37.11% sold | 9.98% of all tickets sold]

Edited December 12, 2021 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Total Sellouts Added Today 

1

Got your wish     
 

A pretty nice day, let’s hope next few follow suit

[charlie Jatinder]

T-6 Days Nationwide Estimates

 

THU - $26.75M

FRI - $20.75M

SAT - $13.75M

Rest - $10.75M

 

Total - ~$72M Approx

 

At same time

 

TROS was ~$68M

Endgame was ~$115-120M

TFA was ~$90M

TLJ was ~$80M

Edited December 11, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

30 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Got your wish     
 

A pretty nice day, let’s hope next few follow suit

My wish would have been to get a few more than one. 👍

 

(also I am a litttttle skeptical of it as it was a semi decent jump and not one I was expecting to sell out soon.  But there’s no other indication of capping at that theater or any of the other theaters that are part of that chain.   And in this case it really would be a drop in the ocean if I was off by 20 or so seats, so I have pretty much ceased to care. )

[XXR vs XXR]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

As of T-6, No Way Home has sold...

2.0915x as many tickets as Black Widow  did at stop of tracking.                  [28.91m]*

3.2893x as many tickets as Shang-Chi did at stop of tracking.                      [28.95m]

2.4939x as many tickets as Let There Be Carnage did at stop of tracking.   [28.93m]

3.0009x as many tickets as Eternals did at stop of tracking.                           [28.51m]

 

Looks like all of your numbers are coalescing pretty clearly. By the time your final track arrives, we can probably use it +/- 3% and be correct. 

Edited December 11, 2021 by Multiverse of XXR

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

Looks like all of your numbers are coalescing pretty clearly. By the time your final track arrives, we can probably use it +/- 3% and be correct. 

Those are all final comps so they are exactly as coalesced as they were t-17 and as coalesced as they will be at t-0. All it really says is that BW V2 Eternals and SC had similar national/Sacto ratio as each other.

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, Product Driven Legion said:

Those are all final comps so they are exactly as coalesced as they were t-17 and as coalesced as they will be at t-0. All it really says is that BW V2 Eternals and SC had similar national/Sacto ratio as each other.

 

Correct, and I expect NWH to be similar as there's no reason for it not to be. 

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Those are all final comps so they are exactly as coalesced as they were t-17 and as coalesced as they will be at t-0. All it really says is that BW V2 Eternals and SC had similar national/Sacto ratio as each other.

It doesn't matter what tracking says, only Sacramento matters.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

Correct, and I expect NWH to be similar as there's no reason for it not to be. 

Well, I can think of reasons. But to be safe better to use those.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Well, I can think of reasons. But to be safe better to use those.

Sure, perhaps there are some reasons BUT it would be odd (IMO) if 4 Marvel movies comps in the last 6 months all pointed to a 2% difference and it DIDN'T hit right around there. At most I would take the average and do +/- 5%. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

Sure, perhaps there are some reasons BUT it would be odd (IMO) if 4 Marvel movies comps in the last 6 months all pointed to a 2% difference and it DIDN'T hit right around there. At most I would take the average and do +/- 5%. 

Well not really. Let's say that a really big movie is able to kickstart some regions that have been performing poorly this year. Then it will overperform that comp. I don't know if this will actually happen but wouldn't be surprised.