The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[YLF]

MT update:

1 82.8% Avengers: Infinity War

2 2.4% I Feel Pretty

3 2.3% Quiet Place, A

4 1.5% Rampage

5 1.1% Black Panther

[WrathOfHan]

Pulse:

 

1. Infinity War

2. Infinity War 3D

3. Infinity War IMAX

4. Infinity War IMAX 3D

5. Deadpool 2

 

5 minutes of watching:

 

7 Overboard

2 Tully

1 Breaking In

 

That seems fine for Overboard. I don't know how presale frontloaded Latin Lover was, but given it's a comedy, walkups should still be strong.

That's pretty weak for Tully, but again, things can change tomorrow.

lol @ Breaking In showing up but not Bad Samaritan  

[JB33]

MT.com:

 

Avengers: Infinity War | 83%

I Feel Pretty | 2.3%

A Quiet Place | 2.1%

Rampage | 1.4%

Deadpool 2 | 1.4%

[TalismanRing]

https://pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-avengers-infinity-war-eyes-massive-second-frame-opener-overboard/
 

Weekend Forecast

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, May 6	% Change from Last Wknd
Avengers: Infinity War	Disney / Marvel	$111,000,000	$444,600,000	-57%
Overboard	Pantelion	$14,000,000	$14,000,000	NEW
A Quiet Place	Paramount	$7,900,000	$160,200,000	-28%
I Feel Pretty	STX	$5,400,000	$38,300,000	-34%
Rampage	Warner Bros. / New Line	$4,500,000	$84,600,000	-38%
Tully	Focus Features	$3,900,000	$3,900,000	NEW
Black Panther	Disney / Marvel	$3,000,000	$693,300,000	-36%
Blockers	Universal	$2,100,000	$56,600,000	-28%
Bad Samaritan	Electric Entertainment	$1,900,000	$1,900,000	NEW
Ready Player One	Warner Bros.	$1,800,000	$133,700,000	-29%

Quote

 

Ultimately, Infinity War has shown early signs of slightly stronger holding power than predecessors like Civil War and Age of Ultron, so it remains to be seen how long-term performance balances out against the limited micro trends we’ve seen in early days thus far. 

 

  Really?

 

It's shown early signs of holding stronger than Avengers

 

 

 

 

Edited May 2, 2018 by TalismanRing

[TalismanRing]

Fandango Tracker

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

 

Avengers: Infinity War

 

Monday 4.30	67,770	24 Hours CT
Tuesday 5.1	64,634	24 Hours CT
Wednesday 5.2	40,688	(Up until 5pm CT)
Monday 4.30	14,453	1pm-5pm CT
Tuesday 5.1	13,480	1pm-5pm CT
Wednesday 5.2	13,447	1pm-5pm CT

 

Interestingly, even with Tues Discount day the Tues drop on the Tracker for sales was 4.85% - very close to it's B.O. drop of 5.3%. 

 

It could be because the majority of tickets now being sold online are are for non traditionally discounted PLF screens which also might explain the near 100% Wed sales retention so far

[Legion Again]

14 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Fandango Tracker

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

 

Avengers: Infinity War

 

Monday 4.30	67,770	24 Hours CT
Tuesday 5.1	64,634	24 Hours CT
Wednesday 5.2	40,688	(Up until 5pm CT)
Monday 4.30	14,453	1pm-5pm CT
Tuesday 5.1	13,480	1pm-5pm CT
Wednesday 5.2	13,447	1pm-5pm CT

 

Interestingly, even with Tues Discount day the Tues drop on the Tracker for sales was 4.85% - very close to it's B.O. drop of 5.3%. 

 

It could be because the majority of tickets now being sold online are are for non traditionally discounted PLF screens which also might explain the near 100% Wed sales retention so far

Woah. If this comes in over 20 everyone is going to lose their mind.

[The Mad Titan]

18 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Fandango Tracker

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

 

Avengers: Infinity War

 

Monday 4.30	67,770	24 Hours CT
Tuesday 5.1	64,634	24 Hours CT
Wednesday 5.2	40,688	(Up until 5pm CT)
Monday 4.30	14,453	1pm-5pm CT
Tuesday 5.1	13,480	1pm-5pm CT
Wednesday 5.2	13,447	1pm-5pm CT

 

Interestingly, even with Tues Discount day the Tues drop on the Tracker for sales was 4.85% - very close to it's B.O. drop of 5.3%. 

 

It could be because the majority of tickets now being sold online are are for non traditionally discounted PLF screens which also might explain the near 100% Wed sales retention so far

Could this possibly do $20 million??

[Biggestgeekever]

The Fandango tracker is a fun tool, but it's in its infancy so it'll be awhile before we can see patterns from it on a daily basis I think. For instance, as we get later in the week, I would anticipate a larger amount of sales will be for the weekend on Wednesday than Monday.

[LonePirate]

Gotta love these large cineplexes. Here are the films and their number of showings for Friday at the megasized AMC which I frequent:

 

Infinity War: 35 (earliest starts at 9:45 am; latest starts at 11:15 pm)

Overboard: 5

A Quiet Place: 10

I Feel Pretty: 4

Tully: 5

Rampage: 4

Black Panther: 4

Blockers: 6

Truth or Dare: 4

Super Troopers 2: 5

Ready Player One: 3

Chappaquiddick: 2

Isle of Dogs: 2

Bad Samaritan: 5

I Can Only Imagine: 2

Sherlock Gnomes: 1

The Miracle Season: 5

A Wrinkle in Time: 3

Pacific Rim Uprising: 1

Sgt. Stubby: 2

Peter Rabbit: 2

Paul, Apostle of Christ: 2

Love, Simon: 2

Game Night: 2

102 Not Out: 5 (Hindi film)

 

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Biggestgeekever said:

The Fandango tracker is a fun tool, but it's in its infancy so it'll be awhile before we can see patterns from it on a daily basis I think. For instance, as we get later in the week, I would anticipate a larger amount of sales will be for the weekend on Wednesday than Monday.

The tracker or the Fandango system might also not be completely steady.   The 17:00 hr just had a big 30-50% dip for most movies that has no comparison to the previous two days and then the 18:00 hr bounced back up to where the earlier hours were trending.

[The Mad Titan]

12 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

The tracker or the Fandango system might also not be completely steady.   The 17:00 hr just had a big 30-50% dip for most movies that has no comparison to the previous two days and then the 18:00 hr bounced back up to where the earlier hours were trending.

It may be a bit off but it's still interesting. Like the fact that if the trend continues (The last hour, 18:00, outsold yesterdays 18:00.) Then the numbers tonight will be within 10% of yesterdays. So let me ask you, if these 2 numbers are that close, can you see Wednesday coming in more than 20% below Tuesday in BO?

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said:

It may be a bit off but it's still interesting. Like the fact that if the trend continues (The last hour, 18:00, outsold yesterdays 18:00.) Then the numbers tonight will be within 10% of yesterdays. So let me ask you, if these 2 numbers are that close, can you see Wednesday coming in more than 20% below Tuesday in BO?

Really hard to know w/o more comparative data.  Now if the B.O. dips close to the % of the tracker tomorrow then Thur numbers might be easier to come close to predicting and so on..

 

 

Edited May 3, 2018 by TalismanRing

[Eric is Anxious]

MT.com Update:

 

1. Avengers: Infinity War: 84.1%

2. I Feel Pretty: 2%

3. Deadpool 2: 1.9%

4. A Quiet Place: 1.7%

5. Overboard: 1.2%

[filmlover]

$14M sounds right for Overboard. Derbez clearly has a fanbase (plus Faris should help pull in some of the Mom crowd) and they're marketing it in the right places.

[WrathOfHan]

Deadline: http://deadline.com/2018/05/avengers-infinity-war-300-million-box-office-record-and-second-weekend-preview-1202381070/

 

Infinity War: 100-125M

Overboard: "On par with Latin Lover's 12.2M"

Tully: 3-4M

[The Panda]

Also something to consider with Tuesday sales vs Wednesday.

 

I know, at least at my main theater, I have to buy my tickets either at the theater or on that theaters webpage to get the Tuesday or student discounts.  Idk if this is true for all theaters but it could explain why Wednesday is a bit more steady on the fandango tracker than expected (because higher walk ups are potentially what drive the Tuesday bump)

 

This is only my brief thought on it though, and I don’t have real data on how many theaters are like this.

[harrycaul]

57 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Deadline: http://deadline.com/2018/05/avengers-infinity-war-300-million-box-office-record-and-second-weekend-preview-1202381070/

 

Infinity War: 100-125M

 

 

I've decided I could be a paid box office writer. I too can specify a meaninglessly wide range of numbers.

[The Panda]

1 hour ago, harrycaul said:

 

I've decided I could be a paid box office writer. I too can specify a meaninglessly wide range of numbers.

To be fair to them, they’re likely just constructing a confidence interval, which will lead to a bigger range if you want accuracy.

 

I don’t think you accurately Project a specific number at this point

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, harrycaul said:

 

I've decided I could be a paid box office writer. I too can specify a meaninglessly wide range of numbers.

I honestly don’t get the disdain that some people here or on reddit seem to have for wide prediction ranges. A range should be no wider than is needed to reflect the true uncertainty that someone has — but also no narrower.      

 

If you think that a movie could reasonably open as low as 130 or as high as 170, then just put 130-170. 110-190 would be stupid and dishonest because it tells people that some numbers are plausible that you don’t actually believe are. But giving a range of 145-155 would also be stupid and dishonest. In effect it would be telling people that a bunch of numbers aren’t going to happen that you actually think are quite plausible, just cause you think have a super narrow range is going to make you look smarter or something. There’s nothing smart about giving an unrealistically narrow range.

Edited May 3, 2018 by Thanos Legion

[TalismanRing]

6 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Fandango Tracker

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

 

Avengers: Infinity War

 

Monday 4.30	67,770	24 Hours CT
Tuesday 5.1	64,634	24 Hours CT
Wednesday 5.2	40,688	(Up until 5pm CT)
Monday 4.30	14,453	1pm-5pm CT
Tuesday 5.1	13,480	1pm-5pm CT
Wednesday 5.2	13,447	1pm-5pm CT

 

Interestingly, even with Tues Discount day the Tues drop on the Tracker for sales was 4.85% - very close to it's B.O. drop of 5.3%. 

 

It could be because the majority of tickets now being sold online are are for non traditionally discounted PLF screens which also might explain the near 100% Wed sales retention so far

Monday 4.30	67,770
Tuesday 5.1	64,634
Wednesday 5.2	61,077

Down about 10% from Monday. That would truly remarkable if reflected at the B.O. but doubtful. That tickets are now also being bought for the w/e seems like a likely component.