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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Jonwo Global Phenomenon

Jonwo

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

My local U.K. cinemas are putting Deadpool 2 and Avengers down to ONE evening show from tonight onwards for Jurassic World.

 

But keeping Solo on 8 times. Eek.

 

Ouch for the first two though. Yikesz  

Avengers isn't too surprising because it's been out a while. 

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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

My nearby AMC megaplex is hosting one of those Ocean's 8 Girls Night Out Dolby events on Wednesday at 8:00 PM. Here is how it looks so far:

 

vI3eptZ.png

I forgot about this :ph34r: The one by me has sold about 40 tickets which I would assume is very very good 

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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Pulse:

 

1. Deadpool 2

2. Solo

3. Adrift

4. Infinity War

5. Ocean's 8

 

5 minutes of watching:

 

19 Incredibles 2

13 Jurassic World

9 Hereditary

4 Hotel Artemis

1 Mamma Mia!

Already outsold every single summer blockbuster this far out in advance :ph34r:

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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

https://variety.com/2018/film/box-office/oceans-8-box-office-preview-sandra-bullock-hereditary-1202831094/

 

Ocean's 8: 33-38M

Hereditary and Artemis: 5-9M

 

Hereditary is opening in 2,800 theaters while Artemis has been upped to 2,340

From the article:

A mid-$30s opening should be enough to edge out “Solo: A Star Wars Story,” which has barely held onto the top spot for the last two weeks. 

 

:wintf:

So Solo went from having potential 30% drops in its second weekend to not dropping at all in its third weekend. The trades work in mysterious ways :thinking:

*Btw the article states Solo is looking at $11-15M. I just find it comical that they think a $30M OW for O8 "should" be enough to edge out Solo lol*

Edited by Nova
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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

Posted
Posted (edited)

‘Nother North Shore Cinema Update

 

Fallen Kingdom is running 88% ahead of Homecoming, 16% ahead of Rangarok and 4% behind Justice League at the same point in time.

 

Looking at a wide range from $89.3M (if it’s frontloaded like JL) to $141.5M to $220M OW (if it’s backloaded like HC) using them comparison.

Edited by YourMother the Edgelord
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dxmatrixdt Summer Tentpole

dxmatrixdt

Posted
Posted

IMO all Oceans 8 should need is good reviews etc. to 

holy hell at 2,340 theaters for Hotel Artemis and Hereditary going megawide at 2,800.  I'm concerned Solo: Star Wars will minus 1,000 positions because of the super saturated openers 

 

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 5/30/2018 at 8:28 AM, TwoMisfits said:

2nd local (Regal) is set and it has followed the path of the 1st 12.  It has booked THREE new movies, (Action Point, Adrift, and Upgrade) even though it presold none of them til this morning. Holdovers also got killed here - here's the set...

 

NEW

Action Point (1)

Adrift (1)

Upgrade (1)

 

Returning

Solo (2.4) 12 showings (6 3d/ 6 2d) - this is SUCH a bad sign for legs b/c this theater sells this demo, and is choosing to drop 1.6 screens by the 2nd weekend (1 on Tuesday and now .6 for Friday) for the new movies - another interesting this is that there is single 3d show in a tiny theater after 10pm...all other shows end at 8pm for this movie, so it's obviously dying at night like TLJ

Book Club (1)

Deadpool (1.6) 9 showings

Showdogs (.5) 3 showings - double screens at noon (one of Solo's shows) and then a 3pm

Life of the Party (.5) 3 showings - takes the rest of Showdogs screen 

A:IW (2) 8 showings - it actually has more showings (by 1) than last weekend - that tells you really all you need to know about legs of all the current movies...

 

Gone

Everything Else

 

Interestingly, there is a full screen not booked.  This theater never books foreign films, so I think they are saving the screen to see what movie (of the new ones) might break out or which of the 3 "big" holdovers is gonna need them this weekend...

 

Okay, 2nd local (Regal) is set...Solo continues to lose showings rapidly and has lost all 3d here (like it did at Cinemark)...in interesting news, somehow all of last week's new releases kept a full screen and it's Solo taking most of the hit for the new releases (instead of those woeful performers, like Action Point, getting split)...here's the set...

 

NEW

Oceans's 8 (2 - 10 showings)

Hereditary (1 - 5 showings)

 

RETURNING

Action Point (1)

Adrift (1)

Upgrade (1)

Solo (1.5 - 6 total showings - LESS than Deadpool this week - and in the smaller screens - one smallest and one below average)

Deadpool (1.5 - 7 total showings - takes the split with Solo on the 2nd screen)

Book Club (1)

Life of the Party (1 - somehow it gets back a full screen - if O8 is a hit, I expect some of these showings to fall away)

Avengers IW (1)

 

Gone

Showdogs

 

 

Edited by TwoMisfits
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report: T-16 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

97

8856

10113

12.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:      106

 

.2102x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after 7 days of pre-sales.

.1691x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 16 days before release. (IW had 19 more days of pre-sales)

.5122x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 16 days before release (BP had 16 more days of pre-sales)  [I don't have info for day one of pre-sales for BP]

.5732x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2  16 days before release (DP2 had one plus more days of pre-sales) [Some theaters also went on sale early for DP2]

.4072x as many tickets sold as Solo 16 days before release pre-sales (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to JW:FK's 22 days of presales)

Edited by Porthos
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Fanboy Box Office Gold

Fanboy

Posted
Posted

All four Ocean's movies opening to around the exact same numbers, even with 17 years of inflation would be hilarious. It could struggle to get $100M if the lukewarm reviews and Incredibles 2 and JW2 have a big impact on it. 

Must be a dire weekend to have Hereditary opening in 2,800 theatres. It should really be doing double digits if its going that wide. Hopefully pre-sales pick up a bit tomorrow. 

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Krissykins Global Phenomenon

Krissykins

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Fanboy said:

All four Ocean's movies opening to around the exact same numbers, even with 17 years of inflation would be hilarious. It could struggle to get $100M if the lukewarm reviews and Incredibles 2 and JW2 have a big impact on it. 

Must be a dire weekend to have Hereditary opening in 2,800 theatres. 

 

1. 78% isn’t lukewarm. It could be certified fresh soon. 

 

2. Not as dire as last weekend clearly. 

Edited by Krissykins
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Fanboy Box Office Gold

Fanboy

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

 

1. 78% isn’t lukewarm. It could be certified fresh soon. 

 

2. Not as dire as last weekend clearly. 

1. It was 74% at the time I posted that and I thought it would go down like JW2

2. Last weekend was at least understandable because it originally seemed as if Solo and Deadpool 2 would be big enough in their second and third weekends to not need another big release that weekend. 

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Fanboy said:

1. It was 74% at the time I posted that and I thought it would go down like JW2

2. Last weekend was at least understandable because it originally seemed as if Solo and Deadpool 2 would be big enough in their second and third weekends to not need another big release that weekend. 

Understandable.  Oceans 8 & JW2 both have the same 6.3 avg.  O8 is getting more of the borderline Freshes.  Still early-ish for both though with review numbers in the low 40s

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