The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Mojoguy]

They really should have set the JW2 release date on June 8th and said F*** Solo.

They needed some bigger balls, with Solo flopping, JW2 would have 2 extra weeks of summer.

Edited May 31, 2018 by Mojoguy

[Brainbug]

Just now, Mojoguy said:

They really should have set the JW2 release date on June 8th and said F*** Solo.

They needed some bigger balls, with Solo flopping, JW2 would have 2 extra weeks of summer.

 

I doubt they predicted that Solo would flop this badly. Also, having Incredibles the weekend before or after you doesnt really make a difference. JW will have plenty of summer weeks in July.

[WrathOfHan]

Adrift and Upgrade are looking pretty strong everywhere; I'm expecting them to overperform now.

[MrGlass2]

2 hours ago, Thematrixfilm said:

movietickets.com

1 - Solo - 32.8%

2 - Deadpool - 17.7%

3 - Book Club - 7.9%

4 - Jurassic - 7.3%

5 - Infinity War - 6.8%

 

With Jurassic World appearing in the top 5 and the staying power of The Book Club, I do not see Adrift, Action Point, or Upgrade standing a chance at breaking this top 5.  

 

It is possible especially for Adrift.

 

Updated by @akvalley: 2018-05-31 16:58:46 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-05-31 16:00:00	896	Solo A Star Wars Story
2018-05-31 16:00:00	812	Deadpool 2
2018-05-31 16:00:00	306	Adrift (2018)
2018-05-31 16:00:00	266	Avengers Infinity War
2018-05-31 16:00:00	190	Book Club
2018-05-31 16:00:00	120	Solo A Star Wars Story 3D
2018-05-31 16:00:00	119	Upgrade (2018)
2018-05-31 16:00:00	104	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom
2018-05-31 16:00:00	70	Life of the Party
2018-05-31 16:00:00	52	Solo A Star Wars Story The IMAX 2D Experience

[MCKillswitch123]

17 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

They really should have set the JW2 release date on June 8th and said F*** Solo.

They needed some bigger balls, with Solo flopping, JW2 would have 2 extra weeks of summer.

No one thought Solo would bomb the way it did, and JW2 coming a measly 2 weeks after Solo would hurt JW2 more than benefit it due to blockbuster overpopulation (especially since three of them - Avengers, Solo and JW - all target more or less the same audience). Plus, considering that it looks like a darker film than the 1st one (and being a sequel), I imagine Incredibles 2 would steal more of the family audience than what Inside Out stole from the 1st one on OW.

[PPZVGOS]

14 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Adrift and Upgrade are looking pretty strong everywhere; I'm expecting them to overperform now.

Upgrade is getting some pretty good reviews. Will probably perform better than expected. 

[DAJK]

Don’t really have any comps cause I didn’t spend time tracking Mountain Between Us but Adrift’s sales tonight seem damn strong at the batch of theatres I usually follow across Canada (Toronto, Ottawa, Calgary and Vancouver). One theatre is actually sold out which I find really surprising.

 

Dont think something like 17M for the weekend can be completely ruled out

[WrathOfHan]

Final sales at my theater:

 

Adrift: 37/78

Upgrade: 17/78

 

Adrift comps:

 

50% of Orient Express (14.4M)

75% of Tomb Raider (17.7M)

105% of The Post (20.4M)

105% of Red Sparrow (17.7M)

220% of Mountain Between Us (23.2M)

 

I'd say my theater is a fluke, but it's selling insane in Orlando too. Mid to high teens is totally a possibility. 

 

Upgrade (all using the PTA):

 

20% of A Quiet Place (4.2M)

40% of Jigsaw (3.3M)

45% of Happy Death Day (5.4M)

50% of Insidious 4 (6.9M)

60% of Annihilation (4.8M)

100% of Strangers 2 (6.2M)

285% of Unsane (7.7M)

 

Walkups are strong as fuck on both of these. The Blumhouse comps on this one are especially encouraging. Assuming audiences respond the same as critics, this will be a VERY interesting weekend to watch.

Edited May 31, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[GambitPool]

My theater's 7:45 showing for Adrift is more than halfway sold out. Comparing with the other data in this thread, this could be a decent break out 

[Nova]

Adrift reminds me of The Shallows. Studio decides to not lift the embargo for the film until very very late. Tracking indicating a high single digit OW. It stars actresses who attract the teen crowd. Wouldn't be shocked to see a similar OW and run for it to be honest. 

[MovieMan89]

Adrift may beat DP2. Though I was hoping a starved female audience could drive O8 to huge numbers next weekend, so Adrift breaking out could put a bit of a hamper on that.

[Cap]

14 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Though I was hoping a starved female audience could drive O8 to huge numbers next weekend

I would not worry. All my anecdoteal evidence points to the ladies being READY.

[WrathOfHan]

How tomorrow looks at my theater:

 

Spoiler

Book Club:

 

11:10: 8/113

1:50: 7/113

4:25: 0/113

7:00: 15/113

9:45: 0/78

 

Solo:

 

10:45: 5/78

11:30 3D: 0/69

12:15: 0/67

1:00 3D: 2/60

2:00: 4/78

2:45 3D: 2/69

3:30: 0/67

4:15: 0/60

5:15: 5/78

6:00 3D: 0/69

6:45: 2/67

7:30 3D: 0/60

8:30: 2/78

9:15 3D: 0/69

10:00: 0/67

10:45 3D: 0/60

 

Adrift:

 

10:10: 5/124

12:35: 6/124

3:00: 0/124

5:30: 2/124

8:00: 2/124

10:30: 0/124

 

Show Dogs:

 

10:20: 6/78

12:40: 4/78
 

Deadpool 2:

 

10:30: 0/78

1:30: 2/78

3:00: 2/78

4:30: 0/78

6:00: 0/78

7:30: 2/78

9:00: 0/78

10:30: 0/78

 

Upgrade:

 

11:15: 3/78

1:45: 1/78

4:15: 0/78

6:50: 0/78

9:20: 2/78

 

Breaking In:

 

1:00: 6/63

5:50: 0/63

10:45: 0/63

 

Life of the Party:

 

10:25: 0/63

3:15: 4/63

8:10: 0/63

 

Action Point:

 

10:15: 2/78

1:30: 0/78

4:00: 0/78

7:15: 0/78

9:35: 0/113

 

Avengers: Infinity War:

 

10:00: 2/78

12:30 3D: 0/78

3:45: 0/78

6:15 3D: 0/78

9:30: 0/78

 

Book Club: 30/530

Solo: 22/1,096 (18 2D/4 3D)

Adrift: 15/744

Show Dogs: 10/156

Deadpool 2: 6/624

Upgrade: 6/390

Breaking In: 6/189

Life of the Party: 4/189

Action Point: 2/425

Avengers: Infinity War: 2/390 (both 2D)

 

Adrift is lagging waaaaaaaay behind those other comps I used for previews; everything basically lands at 5-7M. As we saw tonight, that shouldn't be a big issue because of strong walkups.

 

Upgrade:

 

20% of Happy Death Day (5.2M)

20% of Insidious 4 (5.9M)

20% of Jigsaw (3.3M)

67% of Annihilation (5.4M using the PTA)

150% of Strangers 2 (9.2M using the PTA)

 

Action Point is obviously doing horrendously. It's trailing Suburbicon by a wide margin ffs  

 

 

[Poseidon]

Adrift is a pretty good sell to start June with no competition. 

Had it at $12m/$40m in my monthly preview for the lack of sharks, but it might end up in Shallows-Territory. 

[babz06]

Shailene's powah!

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, Nova said:

Adrift reminds me of The Shallows. Studio decides to not lift the embargo for the film until very very late. Tracking indicating a high single digit OW. It stars actresses who attract the teen crowd. Wouldn't be shocked to see a similar OW and run for it to be honest. 

Agreed. They have similarly good reviews too.

[FantasticBeasts]

7 hours ago, Nova said:

Who said it was universally beloved? No one. You're the one who said that you didn't meet anyone who did not dislike the film which may very well be true. 

But considering its legs, its OW (I mean what kind of movie opens north of $200M if people don't like it?), it's ratings on online sites the general consensus is that most folks actually enjoyed the film. Enjoying/liking a movie doesn't mean that people love the movie. But I don't know how someone can say that Jurassic World was disliked by the masses given the info we have about the movie 

I said it had a fine reception. You seem to agree so why the slightly agressive tone?

I really don't care enough for the franchise at all. I just said something that surprised me from my real life. I had no intention to start a discussion at all but we can't also pretend that every x3 multiplier means universal love for a film.

[bangbingchan]

6 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

They really should have set the JW2 release date on June 8th and said F*** Solo.

They needed some bigger balls, with Solo flopping, JW2 would have 2 extra weeks of summer.

OS start June 6.June 15 China.Dom is 2 weeks after OS. 

[DAJK]

Shailene 4 years ago had huge potential to be such a big movie star. A list talent right there, so hopefully this is a start of some sort of comeback for her.

 

Also holy shit it’s hard to believe that TFIOS came out 4 years ago. Wow

Edited June 1, 2018 by DAJK

[Porthos]

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report: T-21 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	97	9338	10113	7.66%

 

Total Shows Added Today:     5

Total Seats Added Today:   758

Total Seats Sold Today:      180

 

.1490x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after two days of pre-sales.

.1108x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 21 days before release. (IW had 19 more days of pre-sales)

.3769x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 21 days before release (IW had 16 more days of pre-sales)  [I don't have info for day one of pre-sales for BP]

.4527x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2  21 days before release (DP2 had one plus more days of pre-sales) [Some theaters also went on sale early for DP2]

.2777x as many tickets sold as Solo after two days of pre-sales (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to JW:FK's 22 days of presales) [Sometime next week I will switch to the "X days before release" as the comp]

 

NOTE:  I accidentally shorted JW:FK 20 seats sold yesterday due to a typing error.  I've gone back and corrected the stat block in the relevant posts.