The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Taruseth]

2 hours ago, TLK said:

 

Its Tuesday-Wednesday jump isn't that bad but it will probably need Incredibles 2's levels of walkups to get to $135 million+

Is it though?

+82.3%

Solo +80%

 

Okay I2 had just 67.9% increase, but that was also twice as big.

And IW was in another Universe.

[Boxofficerules]

1 hour ago, HeyItsMoses said:

what backlash?

People pissed off with him due to his actions in Infinity War!

[TalismanRing]

28 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Is it though?

+82.3%

Solo +80%

 

Okay I2 had just 67.9% increase, but that was also twice as big.

And IW was in another Universe.

AIW also had enormous pre-sales - $50m+ - only less than TFA and TLJ..

 

The thing is Solo didn't have very strong pre-sales yet was still pre-sale heavy compared to DP2 until opening week. 

 

JW:FK doing less M-W than Solo after having  what look to be from theater reports lower earlier pre-sales than Solo is gong to have to do huge walk ups tonight to get near Solo Thu previews. 

 

It doesn't need Solo preview numbers to do better than it since it's w/e multiplier should be much bigger but I think it needs near $14m to come anywhere near the high end of tracking ($150m)

 

Edited June 21, 2018 by TalismanRing

[efialtes76]

6 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Not even close to safe. Every sign right now is pointing to sub 100. This thing better be insanely walk up driven or FK may literally pull a Solo, 85m and all. 

FK will make $100M+.

100% assured.

[filmlover]

6 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

If under 120m for JWFK , then Pratt backlash is confirmed

What backlash? Cause he's getting divorced? Who cares?

[salvador-232]

21 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

FK will make $100M+.

100% assured.

If the China thread taught me anything this is now 100% assured not to happen 

[Nova]

32 minutes ago, salvador-232 said:

If the China thread taught me anything this is now 100% assured not to happen 

When it comes to box office, there is nothing that is 100% assured. 

 

Does that mean JW will open under $100M? Heck no. But to say it’s guaranteed to open over $100M when opening at $100M let alone over $100M is no easy feat is why we have meltdowns all the time on BOT when it comes to these blockbusters. People think there’s no way a movie can only open to such and such or make less than whatever amount but then when the movie opens less than that or makes less than what people thought would be the low end, we get the meltdowns. 

[WrathOfHan]

If there was Pratt backlash, Infinity War wouldn’t be doing so well.

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

If there was Pratt backlash, Infinity War wouldn’t be doing so well.

I don't think there's any serious backlash but he's not exactly the star of AIW.

 

 

Edited June 21, 2018 by TalismanRing

[Nova]

The fact that some of you are actually replying to the “Pratt backlash” comment. 

 

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

I don't think there's any serious backlash but he's not exactly the star of AIW.

 

 

He had the some of the most screentime out of any character though 🤔

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

The fact that some of you are actually replying to the “Pratt backlash” comment. 

 

"Fallen Kingdom will underperform cause people are mad at Chris Pratt's character in Infinity War" has to be the dumbest reason anyone has ever given as to why a film could underperform and that's saying something.

[Nova]

Heading out early so I have to do the update now. 

7:00PM 122/142

7:40PM 18/116 (new)

10:30PM 70/142 

10:45PM 4/116 (new)

 

Total 2D: 214/516

 

3D 

7PM 90/142 

10PM 30/142 

 

Total 3D: 120/284 

 

Total seats sold 334/764 

 

I’m not going to use Solo as a direct comparison anymore because as I said Solo’s sales pretty much remained stagnated at my theater whereas JW2 has seen increases but just for getting an idea of how JW2 is doing, Solo sold 266 2D and 150 3D for a total of 416 (Not the final amount as I never checked back before each showtime)

 

DP2 is a better comparison (at my theater) because it saw a huge uptick in sales when new showtimes were added on Wednesday before release. This is where DP2 was on Thursday: Total seats sold 705/1,045 (Not the final amount as I never checked back before each showtime) 

 

Solo and DP2 obviously had more showtimes but it doesn’t seem like JW2 needs more showtimes than what it’s gotten. Anyways I know JW2 isn’t expected to be as front loaded as DP2 but just as I was concerned about Solo being so far off from DP2, I’m concerned that JW2 is even more far off. The distance between it and Solo will be covered no doubt but the distance between it and DP2 for Thursday night at my theater won’t even be close. 

 

Also to note for the weekend it’s finishing with 2 less showtimes than DP2 per day. 

 

I’m thinking low teens for the previews but unlike DP2 it’ll have a better IM and get into the $110M range (still thinking $105M-$115M). But if the walk ups don’t come it’ll be closer to $105M than $115M in which case I2 over JW2 would be totally possible. 

 

This whole situation just seems really really similar. A big opener the weekend before taking the thunder. The movie lagging behind on MT. BOT (myself included) thinking it had to do with the previous opener just doing so well. Then folks just being in outright denial. I can’t quite remember how that situation played out so I guess we shall see if JW2 can create its own path

 

Also one final note (sorry this post is long): I’m not doubting or hating on JW2 like some folks insist those of us in the tracking thread are doing. Personally, I’m just posting the numbers I’m getting at my theater for it and making comparisons. Im not just doing this for JW2 but to have it as data for future films too. If JW2 breaks out and does bigger numbers then I’m gonna be excited as hell for it. But I’m not just gonna put my hands over my ears and walk around yelling “it’s fine, fine, fine. It’s gonna do $150M+” when the data simply doesn’t back that up. Again if it does that then that’s fantastic for it and it’ll make the run for it that much more exciting. 

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

"Fallen Kingdom will underperform cause people are mad at Chris Pratt's character in Infinity War" has to be the dumbest reason anyone has ever given as to why a film could underperform and that's saying something.

Which is why you shouldn’t even be responding to it 

[WrathOfHan]

Currently at 67%with 15 reviews and a 6.5 average. Top critics are at 60%

[TwoMisfits]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

"Fallen Kingdom will underperform cause people are mad at Chris Pratt's character in Infinity War" has to be the dumbest reason anyone has ever given as to why a film could underperform and that's saying something.

Gotta get those reasons out early in case you need them:)...

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Gotta get those reasons out early in case you need them:)...

Looking forward to people using "Bryce Dallas Howard didn't run in high heels this time!" as an excuse at some point this weekend.

[jj99]

I can feel the sub 100 surprise coming. unless the walkup business is similar to the first one. 

 

Or maybe its doing a much larger portion of its presales in theaters and not online, so it's harder to track.

[Nova]

MT Thursday morning update 

I2: 52.6

JW: 31% 

*The rest (who cares) 

 

 

Edited for Book keeping purposes here are the other films 

O8: 2.9

Tag: 2.1

Solo: 1.3

 

Edited June 21, 2018 by Nova

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

Has anyone posted the daily breakdown link for those Fandango sales?