The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Boxofficerules]

8 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Alright so it's that time of year where basically everything in release now has to make as much money as it can before the 14th. Hoping to see some pretty decent holds. 

Why the 14th?

[Eric Wilson]

1 minute ago, Boxofficerules said:

Why the 14th?

...three new openers release on that day?

[grim22]

6 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

...three new openers release on that day?

Fair, but honestly speaking will Mortal Engines and The Mule actually affect any holdovers? One is targeting a much older audience and the other is looking like the biggest writedown of the holidays

[narniadis]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Fair, but honestly speaking will Mortal Engines and The Mule actually affect any holdovers? One is targeting a much older audience and the other is looking like the biggest writedown of the holidays

Screen counts will be dramatically cut for sure. I mean look at what happened just 2 weekends ago and 2 of the three new openers were under 15m. 

 

Also the low hanging fruit will be beyond keeping around at that point. Only saving grace for the Thanksgiving/prethanks movies. 

[Eric Wilson]

4 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Fair, but honestly speaking will Mortal Engines and The Mule actually affect any holdovers? One is targeting a much older audience and the other is looking like the biggest writedown of the holidays

...well, I guess Grinch and Ralph have to make as much money as possible before the 14th then. Fixed it for ya DAJK

[DAJK]

11 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Fair, but honestly speaking will Mortal Engines and The Mule actually affect any holdovers? One is targeting a much older audience and the other is looking like the biggest writedown of the holidays

I'm more worried about TC loss. Many larger theatres can keep movies that may not be doing crazy business anymore (thinking things like Instant Family or Widows or BR) before they lose older content like that on the 14th. 

[grim22]

Just now, DAJK said:

I'm more worried about TC loss. Many larger theatres can keep movies that may not be doing crazy business anymore (thinking things like Instant Family or Widows or BR) before they lose older content like that on the 14th. 

Good point. Everything with a low PTA will be cut going into the holidays. 

[filmlover]

I’m at a loss as to why Universal is opening Mortal Engines over the holidays. It would bomb no matter where it opened but it’s gonna get completely crushed by everything around it. I won’t be shocked by a Darkest Minds type of total at this point tbh.

Edited November 27, 2018 by filmlover

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

I’m at a loss as to why Universal is opening Mortal Engines over the holidays. It would bomb no matter where it opened but it’s gonna get completely crushed by everything around it. I won’t be shocked by a Darkest Minds type of total at this point tbh.

No way It's got a much bigger marketing push, more awareness, and it's not like it's going to take up multiple screens at any large theater. 

 

Still, not thinking anything higher than 50M total at this point. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

No way It's got a much bigger marketing push, more awareness, and it's not like it's going to take up multiple screens at any large theater. 

 

Still, not thinking anything higher than 50M total at this point. 

I haven’t seen the trailer once at the movies. Said it in the movie’s thread the other week but it reminds me of The Spirit, which opened in a similarly crowded Christmas marketplace and didn’t look very appealing and got completely lost in the shuffle a decade ago.

[Eric Wilson]

My dad and I got the Mortal Engines trailer in front of Grindelwald. Some of my Dad's favorite movies ever is the LOTR trilogy, and he really likes the first two Hobbit films. But even he thinks this looks lame (yes, I know Peter Jackson isn't directing this, but the film boasts itself as "from the filmmakers of Lord of the Rings and The Hobbit" and my Dad doesn't know jack about the industry or who directs what). That's a problem.

[Stewart]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I haven’t seen the trailer once at the movies. Said it in the movie’s thread the other week but it reminds me of The Spirit, which opened in a similarly crowded Christmas marketplace and didn’t look very appealing and got completely lost in the shuffle a decade ago.

I've had the trailer 3 times at the movies (one of which was FB2). 

Personally I think it looks like an interesting concept and I'm weirdly looking forward to it. Saying that I quite enjoyed The Darkest Minds and I think that was largely regarded as trash (unless I'm mistaken). So perhaps my concept of a "good" movie is vastly different from most.

[Valonqar]

ME is gonna be the RH of Xmas. It'll be clobbered by Spiderverse on the opening day and then MPR, Aquaman and Bumblebee will finish it. It's by far the weakest of movies that target the same demo. 

[WrathOfHan]

On 11/19/2018 at 6:17 PM, WrathOfHan said:

The Hate U Give, Nobody's Fool, and Venom are gone.

 

Ralph Breaks the Internet: 9 (5 2D/4 3D; Biggest and Average)

Creed II: 5 (Average)

Green Book: 5 (Average)

Robin Hood: 5 (2nd Smallest)

 

Dr. Seuss' The Grinch: 6 (Down 2 and lost 3D; 2nd Biggest)

Bohemian Rhapsody: 5 (Up 1; Average)

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald: 5 (Up 1; 3 2D/2 3D; Average)

Instant Family: 5 (Up 1; Average)

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms: 5 (Up 1; 4th Smallest)

Widows: 5 (Up 1; 3rd Smallest)

Overlord: 3 (Down 1; Smallest x0.6)

The Girl in the Spider's Web: 2 (Down 2; Smallest x0.4)

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:   

  Hide contents

 

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats

 

 

The Girl in the Spider's Web and Overlord are gone.

 

The Possession of Hannah Grace: 4 (2nd Biggest x0.5 and Average x0.5)

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween: 2 (Return; Average x0.5)

 

Ralph Breaks the Internet: 8 (Down 1; 5 2D/3 3D; Biggest and Average)

Bohemian Rhapsody: 4 (Down 1; 4th Smallest x0.5 and 2nd Smallest x0.5)

Creed II: 4 (Down 1; 2nd Biggest x0.5 and Average x0.5)

Dr. Seuss' The Grinch: 4 (Down 1; 4th Smallest x0.5 and 2nd Smallest x0.5)

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald: 4 (Down 1; 3 2D/1 3D; Average)

Green Book: 4 (Down 1; Average x0.5 and Smallest x0.5)

Instant Family: 4 (Down 1; Average)

Robin Hood: 4 (Down 1; Average x0.5, 3rd Smallest x0.25, and Smallest x0.25)

Widows: 4 (Down 1; Average x0.5 and 3rd Smallest x0.5)

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms: 2 (Down 3; 3rd Smallest x0.25 and Smallest x0.25)

 

During the weekend, Instant Family and The Grinch split the 2nd Biggest auditorium.

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:   

Spoiler

 

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats

 

 

Edited November 27, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[TwoMisfits]

56 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

ME is gonna be the RH of Xmas. It'll be clobbered by Spiderverse on the opening day and then MPR, Aquaman and Bumblebee will finish it. It's by far the weakest of movies that target the same demo. 

Monster Trucks, another enormous letdown movie, still made double digits its opening weekend...and it looked way worse than Mortal Engines.  There is probably some room in the market for a "big machine" movie, whether it ends up good or not.  And it will take 3000 screens away from holdovers, pretty much no matter what...theaters will open this movie, just to see if it has somewhere to go, before they toss it between Xmas and New Year's (if it performs where tracking says it will)...

[Valonqar]

8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Monster Trucks, another enormous letdown movie, still made double digits its opening weekend...and it looked way worse than Mortal Engines.  There is probably some room in the market for a "big machine" movie, whether it ends up good or not.  And it will take 3000 screens away from holdovers, pretty much no matter what...theaters will open this movie, just to see if it has somewhere to go, before they toss it between Xmas and New Year's (if it performs where tracking says it will)...

many holdovers have terrible PTA so they should be cut tbh. Oscar hopefuls such as Widows and Green Book continue to have shit PTA despite fewer theaters they play in. When movies that play for weeks and in more theaters still manage to have better PTA than these 2, that points at lots of empty seats.

Edited November 27, 2018 by Valonqar

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

many holdovers have terrible PTA so they should be cut tbh. Oscar hopefuls such as Widows and Green Book continue to have shit PTA despite fewer theaters they play in. When movies that play for weeks and in more theaters still manage to have better PTA than these 2, that points at lots of empty seats.

Nothing they can really do about right now since there’s nothing really coming out between now and December 14. Theater drops are gonna be ugly starting that weekend though.

[Valonqar]

33 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Nothing they can really do about right now since there’s nothing really coming out between now and December 14. Theater drops are gonna be ugly starting that weekend though.

so we can expect shit boxoffice until then cause nothing new but big shopping

[TLK]

5 hours ago, filmlover said:

I’m at a loss as to why Universal is opening Mortal Engines over the holidays. It would bomb no matter where it opened but it’s gonna get completely crushed by everything around it. I won’t be shocked by a Darkest Minds type of total at this point tbh.

Mortal Engines seems like one of those few movies that could've been helped by a more recognizable cast. It has an interesting concept but the lack of bigger stars may hurt the promo when stacked against the competition it is going to face.

[WrathOfHan]

On 11/20/2018 at 12:15 AM, WrathOfHan said:

Amar Akbar Antony, Beautiful Boy, Halloween, and Venom are gone.

 

Ralph Breaks the Internet: 17 (10 2D/7 3D; Dolby x0.6, Biggest x2, Average x0.6, Below Average x0.2, and Smallest x0.2)

Creed II: 13 (Dolby x0.4 and Biggest x2)

The Front Runner: 5 (Smallest)

Robin Hood: 5 (Average)

Green Book: 4 (Smallest)

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween: 1 (Return; Smallest x0.2)

 

Dr. Seuss' The Grinch: 10 (Down 6 and lost 3D; Above Average and Below Average x0.6)

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald: 10 (8 2D/2 3D; Down 5; IMAX, Above Average, and Average x0.2)

Boy Erased: 5 (Up 1; Smallest)

Instant Family: 5 (Flat; Smallest)

Widows: 5 (Flat; Average)

Bohemian Rhapsody: 4 (Down 1; Average)

Nobody's Fool: 3 (Down 2; Smallest x0.6)

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms: 3 (Down 3; Below Average x0.6)

Can You Ever Forgive Me?: 2 (Flat; Smallest x0.5)

Overlord: 2 (Down 3; Average x0.2 and Below Average x0.2)

A Star Is Born: 2 (Down 2; Smallest x0.5)

The Girl in the Spider's Web: 1 (Down 4; Below Average x0.2)

A Private War: 1 (Down 4; Below Average x0.2)

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:

  Hide contents

IMAX: 372 seats

Dolby: 236 seats

Biggest: 104-107 seats (4 auditoriums are this size)

Above Average: 77 seats (2 auditoriums are this size)

Average: 67-70 seats (4 auditoriums are this size)

Below Average: 51-54 seats (2 auditoriums are this size)

Smallest: 40 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

  

 

Can You Ever Forgive Me?, The Girl in the Spider's Web and A Private War are gone.

 

The Possession of Hannah Grace: 6 (Above Average x0.2 and Average)

2.0: 4 (All 3D; 2 Hindi/1Telugu/1 Tamil; Smallest)

 

Ralph Breaks the Internet: 12 (Down 5; 9 2D/3 3D; Dolby x0.5 and Biggest x2.5)

Creed II: 8 (Down 5; Dolby x0.5 and Biggest x1.5)

Dr. Seuss' The Grinch: 8 (Down 2; Above Average and Average x0.6)

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald: 8 (Down 2 and lost 3D; IMAX and Below Average)

Nobody's Fool: 5 (Up 2; Smallest)

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms: 5 (Up 2; Smallest)

Bohemian Rhapsody: 4 (Flat; Average)

Green Book: 4 (Flat; Smallest)

Instant Family: 4 (Down 1; Above Average x0.8)

Robin Hood: 4 (Down 1; Smallest)

A Star Is Born: 4 (Up 2; Below Average)

Widows: 4 (Down 1; Average)

Boy Erased: 2 (Down 3; Smallest x0.4)

The Front Runner: 2 (Down 3; Smallest x0.4)

Overlord: 2 (Flat; Average x0.4)

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween: 1 (Flat; Smallest x0.2)

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:

Spoiler

 

IMAX: 372 seats

Dolby: 236 seats

Biggest: 104-107 seats (4 auditoriums are this size)

Above Average: 77 seats (2 auditoriums are this size)

Average: 67-70 seats (4 auditoriums are this size)

Below Average: 51-54 seats (2 auditoriums are this size)

Smallest: 40 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)