The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Deep Wang]

2 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Was it not a little strange that I read it several times?? I thought you were being a madman

 

Like, all time OW didn't even cross my mind, so I guess I just figured no one else thought it either!

 

You guys can't read my mind?  

 

TBF, March OW is still a long shot, but it is looking good so far!

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

Okay, somehow I can't place what DBZ is, and it's driving me nuts!

 

Especially since with presales that high, it should be obvious...

 

Those presales are VERY high!  They are over 900 thousand!

[Eric Duncan]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

Okay, somehow I can't place what DBZ is, and it's driving me nuts!

 

Especially since with presales that high, it should be obvious...

 

It's Dragon Ball Z. It's a Fathom Event though, so it's no big deal

[MrGlass2]

$200M OW for Captain Marvel.

$100M OW for Dragon Ball Z.

[Stewart]

5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Like, all time OW didn't even cross my mind, so I guess I just figured no one else thought it either!

 

You guys can't read my mind?  

 

TBF, March OW is still a long shot, but it is looking good so far!

So you were talking about March OW, and I thought you'd taken crazy pills again and suggesting CM would do $100m more than that

[Eric Duncan]

A Dogs Way Home	87	994	8.75%
Upside	185	1764	10.49%
Beale Street	69	994	6.94%

 

I should mention I forgot to check the early 6PM showtimes for Dog and Upside (my brain makes me think all previews start at 7, as they rightfully should). So this could be deflated a touch, but I'm sure it won't see that much of an impact.

 

Dog comps:

26% of Peter Rabbit (6.4M)

84% of Sherlock Gnomes (9M)

114% of Show Dogs (6.9M)

23% of Hotel Transylvania 3 (10.1M)

24% of Christopher Robin (6M)

48% of Smallfoot (11M)

19% of Grinch (13M)

33% of Spider-Verse (11.9M)

 

Guess low teens is the likely scenario here.

 

Upside comps:

120% of Uncle Drew (18.3M)

43% of Night School (11.7M)

51% of Nobody's Fool (6.9M)

 

This is one of those scenarios where I wished I was able to see sales for the 6PM show, because this seems pretty low, especially with it doing very solid on Pulse. But I guess Aquabro could live to see another #1.

 

Beale Street comps:

56% of BlacKkKlansman (6M)

431% of Hate U Give's second weekend (7.5M)

 

This is hard to do, since there's little comps here (this is in 1,000 theaters, been out for a while in limited), but this seems a tad too optimistic. Should still do okay this weekend.

[DAJK]

Damn, the Marvel brand at this point is stronger than the Pixar brand ever was IMO. This movie's hype is almost purely riding on the brand (and the IW hype I guess) as the trailers haven't been anything special.

 

And no don't go telling me there's 150M+ OW worth of Captain Marvel fans I just didn't know about. 

[Porthos]

A second "opening night fan event" showing has been scheduled for Captain Marvel at Century Arden.

 

I've seen this happen exactly once before (for Infinity War), also from Century Theaters (which is part of the Cinemark chain) at a couple of their theaters.

 

I have no idea what deal they have to make with Disney to do that, but I've only seen CInemark do this, and like I said only once before.

 

---

 

I suppose once the precedent was set with IW, it became easier to do it again.  But I do find it a little interesting that Cinemark was 'allowed' to schedule a second ONFE.  Maybe it's total number of seats (the first one isn't at their biggest screen, and this second one is in a much smaller one).

 

Either way, I find it a little noteworthy that Disney/Marvel is allowing places to double up on their ONFEs outside of the mega-events like Infinity War.

[WrathOfHan]

Previews:

 

The Upside:

7:00: 54/70

10:00: 8/70

Total: 62/140

 

A Dog's Way Home:

5:00: 16/51

7:45: 12/51

10:30: 0/51

Total: 28/153

 

Replicas:

7:00: 11/67

9:45: 14/67

Total: 25/134

 

Can't find OTBOS' and Ben's URLs and don't care enough to dig for them lol. Upside did pretty good tonight.

[kitik]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

A second "opening night fan event" showing has been scheduled for Captain Marvel at Century Arden.

 

My local theater has 2 of them right at 6:00.

 

 

3 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

It's Dragon Ball Z. It's a Fathom Event though, so it's no big deal

 

It's Dragon Ball Z. It IS a big deal!

 

The showtimes for it seem very strange though. Some theaters just have a 7pm (or thereabouts) showing, while other theaters have a full day of DBZ screenings. A full week actually. 5 showings a day from Wednesday until the following Thursday, so 9 full days.

 

Seems like the type of release that will almost certainly have it's box office reported on BOM.

 

Total box office should be over 10 million. Who knows, it might even get close to $20M.

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, kitik said:

My local theater has 2 of them right at 6:00.

What's the chain, if you don't mind me asking.  Kinda curious if this has expanded beyond Cinemark.

[MrGlass2]

On 1/10/2019 at 6:17 AM, MrGlass2 said:

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	11.972%	6923	Aquaman
2	07.624%	4409	Dragon Ball Super Broly
3	06.716%	3884	Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
4	06.518%	3769	The Upside
5	06.417%	3711	Escape Room (2019)

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-01-10 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	13.699%	8526	The Upside
2	10.445%	6501	Aquaman
3	06.994%	4353	Dragon Ball Super Broly
4	05.908%	3677	Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
5	05.669%	3528	On the Basis of Sex
6	05.233%	3257	A Dogs Way Home
7	05.124%	3189	Escape Room (2019)
8	04.706%	2929	Mary Poppins Returns (2018)
9	03.506%	2182	Vice (2018)
10	03.342%	2080	The Mule (2018)
...
17	01.600%	996	Replicas

[kitik]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

What's the chain, if you don't mind me asking.  Kinda curious if this has expanded beyond Cinemark.

 

its a Cinemark

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-56 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	8755	10608	17.47%

 

Total Showings Added Today:    12

Total Seats Added Today:       1060 

Total Seats Sold Today:            160

 

.3389x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after three days of pre-sales.

.9425x as many tickets sold as Black Panther after nine days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for BP]

1.0824 as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 after nine-plus days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for DP2] 

.6361x as many tickets sold as Solo after three days of pre-sales. 

2.1274x as many tickets sold as JW:FK after three days of pre-sales.
2.0844x as many tickers sold as FB2 after three-plus days of pre-sales.

 

===

 

Day Three Comps:

 

IW:      264 tickets sold [1 sellout/106 showings |   5033/10500 seats left  | 52.07% sold] 

Solo:   122 tickets sold [0 sellouts/87 showings  |   6435/9348 seats left    | 31.16% sold]

JW:FK:   96 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings  |   9242/10113 seats left  |   8.61% sold]

FB2:      83 tickets sold [0 sellouts/94 showings  | 12488/13377 seats left  |   6.65% sold] 

Edited January 16, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Two more theaters went to their initial slates today, and we might be at the total number of theaters in town showing the flick.  One or two other theaters might get CM, but they are cross-neighborhood 'rivals' so they don't always get a 'big ticket' film if the other chain gets it.

 

Speaking of which, I'd be a tiny bit careful about the BP comp.  Black Panther screened in Sacramento before a new complex opened up in town that has been selling a decent amount of tickets.  Not only that, in the year since I am now getting reserved seating info from a few more chains where I wasn't getting it before.  I've already talked about the plusses and minuses about this before, so I won't belabor the point.  Just consider it another point of context.

 

This is where the % of seats sold comes in handy, IMO, as it can help smooth out some of the problems with new info coming in over time.

 

For instance, while BP had 'only' sold 1966 tickets locally after eight days, it was at a whopping 32.21% of capacity of the seats I was tracking.  That more than anything else signaled its potential power.

 

Something to keep in mind while CM sits at 'only' 17.5% (which, I will point out, is still very good for this far out).

Edited January 11, 2019 by Porthos

[SchumacherFTW]

2 hours ago, kitik said:

 

My local theater has 2 of them right at 6:00.

 

 

 

It's Dragon Ball Z. It IS a big deal!

 

The showtimes for it seem very strange though. Some theaters just have a 7pm (or thereabouts) showing, while other theaters have a full day of DBZ screenings. A full week actually. 5 showings a day from Wednesday until the following Thursday, so 9 full days.

 

Seems like the type of release that will almost certainly have it's box office reported on BOM.

 

Total box office should be over 10 million. Who knows, it might even get close to $20M.

I dunno about that. Resurrection F did 8m a couple of years ago, I'd be surprised if Broly did more than double. 

[HouseOfTheSun]

6 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

The only OW record in play for CM is the March record. Or maaaaaybe the solo SH OW record if everything aligns perfectly. Incidentally that would make 7 of the top 10 OWs Disney SH movies.

I don’t think Black Panther is in play (yet). Above BVS, I think is going to happen 

[efialtes76]

Presales are bigger and bigger every year.

Aquaman had good presales and opened with $68M... 

 

 

Edited January 11, 2019 by efialtes76

[el sid]

MT after the Friday update:

#1 The Upside 12.9% - Night School had 15.1% two hours later/in two hours
#2 Aquaman 10.1%
#3 A Dog's Way Home 8.5%
#4 OTBOS 7%
#5 MPR 5.7%

Edited January 11, 2019 by el sid

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, efialtes76 said:

Aquaman had good presales and opened with $68M... 

Because it was Christmas break.