WEEKEND THREAD | 3-DAY ESTIMATES: Pirates - 62M ; Baywatch - 18M; Alien - 10.5M (71% drop) like. F8 crosses 1B OS.

[Daxtreme]

I just wanna say that this is a great discussion we're having, civilized and thoughtful. Good arguments and points all around.

 

Something's that in rare supply on the Internet these days

[dudalb]

4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

No, obviously, Baywatch is opening above most wide release with terrible reviews, pirates will be a top movie of the year with bad reviews, The Founder, Kubos, NIce Guys, many good reviewed movie flopped.

 

You need much more than good reviews (and bad reviews for a certain type of movie is not a death on arrival), but it would help a lot a movie like Valerian, a movie that people have look fun, look nice but suspicious about it being actually good.

The saving grace for Baywatch is that it had a very modest budget.

But we will not be seeing another Baywatch movie. It is the kind of movie that a studio goes "Well, we got away with it this time, but we had better no press our luck.No sequels"

Re Valerian: Besson has always been something of a hard sell to mainstream American audiences. His whole style and approach are very, well,European. This is not a knock on Bresson, but just stating that his approach is not that a lot of American movie goers are comfortable with.

I am sure the studio is expecnting Valarian to make it big money overseas.

 

Edited May 28, 2017 by dudalb

[baumer]

22 minutes ago, franfar said:

I don't really get burned on movies. If it's bad, then it's bad, and I just accept it.

 

I agree 100% with this. Sometimes seeing a bad movie is just fine. You can complain about it but it also gives you something to talk about and spending two hours in a theater with a giant screen in front of you even watching a bad movie is sometimes better than an afternoon of doing something else.

[grey ghost]

WOM is still king.

 

Get Out could have 99% on RT.

 

It's still not making 170+ m without incredible WOM.

 

Guardians 2 has better legs than CW because it's a true crowd pleaser, rather than just fanboy driven.

[franfar]

Just now, Daxtreme said:

I just wanna say that this is a great discussion we're having, civilized and thoughtful. Good arguments and points all around.

 

Something's that in rare supply on the Internet these days

Don't jinx it

[The Panda]

I think reviews can help or hurt movies but I don't think they are what kill or make a movie a success.

 

I do think glowing reception can really help a movie get noticed and break out.  Such as Get Out, had universal praise and audiences obviously dug it.

 

But I do think it's easy to mistake reviews with WoM.  Alien for example isn't liked at all, despite fresh reviews.

Edited May 28, 2017 by The Panda of the Caribbean

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, dudalb said:

No one is saying that POTC 5 is a flop.

What they are saying is that it is not going to make the kind of jack that Disney is expecting from a POTC movie.

It's all about expectations. The expectations for POTC 5 were much higher then what it is going to end up making.

 

I disagree with this. I think Disney knew exactly what they were getting into when they green-lit this. They knew there was very little chance they were going to make anywhere close to what they made on the last film. If we know about exchange rates and how the last film was received and Johnny Depp's reputation right now then you can bet the marketing Geniuses and all the suits at Disney know what we know.

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

WOM is still king.

 

I think that except for small exception, for wide release at least the first weekend is now definitely the king and has a bigger impact than WOM. Guardian 2 was a success before anyone saw it.

[Daxtreme]

3 minutes ago, franfar said:

Don't jinx it

 

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, The Panda of the Caribbean said:

I think reviews can help or hurt movies but I don't think they are what kill or make a movie a success.

 

If the movie can open without them yes, but otherwise I think they can in the current market place it is not easy to overturn a terrible first weekend for a wide release.

[dudalb]

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

 

 

but why? If it makes money for the studio there is no reason for them to not continue. 

Nonsense. A good studio recognizes when Franchise Fatigue is setting in with an audience, and knows to quit when it is ahead.

[Goffe]

1 hour ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

They waited too long (4 years?!?) and the angle in the marketing ("Who is John Harrison?") was bland. But mostly I'd say it was the former. 

 

 

 

Marketing was pretty lazy, putting together one the most half-assed trailers for a major blockbuster I have ever seen. Classic mistake that a lot of sequels do thinking audiences will show up no matter what. As a Star Trek09 stan, I was all like "well ok, I guess I'll see it" back then. 

 

By the time the only good trailer (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAEkuVgt6Aw) rolled around, it was waaay too late.

[franfar]

If it's an anticipated blockbuster, then worst case scenario, bad reviews/WoM will kill it's legs but not really affect OW (when die hards see the movie)

 

POTC5 had limited hype even before the embargo ended

[grey ghost]

Just now, baumer said:

 

I agree 100% with this. Sometimes seeing a bad movie is just fine. You can complain about it but it also gives you something to talk about and spending two hours in a theater with a giant screen in front of you even watching a bad movie is sometimes better than an afternoon of doing something else.

 

I watch almost all superhero movies because I enjoy discussing the good and the bad with other comic nerds.

 

But there's no way I'm taking my wife and three kids to see a boring or insulting movie.

 

Not only did I waste 60 bucks and their precious free time but also the next time I really want them to see a movie, all four will give me the middle finger.

 

So yeah, I do my research first. 

[TwoMisfits]

I think people are seeing a disconnect on average vs bad movies...not that they think either of this weekend's movies were the Godfather...

 

A number of people have said Pirates 5 is much better than 4...and yet they scored the same 32%...

 

For me, Baywatch is a solid B movie, since it's got some real flaws that it did not overcome even with some great humor scenes...and something like BvS (since that came up) was an F movie...but somehow Baywatch is at 19% and BvS is 28%...so it's a disconnect in the scores that I think the studios are unhappy with.

 

Both Baywatch and Pirates should have probably hit the middling range of scores (45-55), but neither came close...and people see just the overall critics number and say "wow, that's really bad...not just average"...when in fact, both movies are probably average for what the expectations of the movies should have been.  Neither are awards bait, nor Citizen Kane...

[John Marston]

Just now, dudalb said:

Nonsense. A good studio recognizes when Franchise Fatigue is setting in with an audience, and knows to quit when it is ahead.

 

 

then they would have ended the Bond franchise, Fast and Furious franchise, MI franchise, Jurassic Park franchise, Star Trek franchise, etc 

[filmlover]

RT has become in an increasingly influential source in how people decide how to part with their money IMO, especially with the rise of streaming services in the last couple of years. With movie tickets as high as $20 (especially if you live in NYC), no one's gonna go out of their way to shell out a pretty penny for a film they aren't fully convinced they'll enjoy.

Edited May 28, 2017 by filmlover

[Cmasterclay]

I love reading reviews from good critics. I just love reading smart analysis and opinion on movies from people that love movies and dedicate themselves to the history even if I completely and totally disagree. Sometimes I'll read Ehrlich or Rex Reed and barely "agree" with a word being said but they'll still provide some illuminating perspective or thought that makes me think about something in a different way. That's value to me. 

[franfar]

2 hours ago, grim22 said:

 

Which again makes Mockingjay 1 one of the most unexplained drops ever, right next to Kung Fu Panda 2. Both coming off big installments which everyone liked and were primed for the next movie.

For the Mockingjay films:

 

1) They didn't need to be split into two

 

2) Book wasn't really that good

 

In retrospect, a big drop doesn't surprise me at all. I remember loads more hype for CF 

Edited May 28, 2017 by franfar

[baumer]

Let's not bring Citizen Kane into this. It's one of the most overhyped ridiculously boring films that brainwashed everybody in the world into liking it.