WEEKEND THREAD | Actual: Wonder Woman 58.63M, Estimates: Mummy 32.2M, Underpants 12.3M, Pirates 10.2M, ICAN 6M

[titanic2187]

15 minutes ago, excel1 said:

I think it's worth noting that BB's legacy grew substantially when TDK exploded and many realized how popular BB truly was. Had Ledger not died, TDK was still going to open in the $110-120 range and be a top 5 opener all time.

also, TDK is the fuelled further by its quality 

[JohnnyGossamer]

18 minutes ago, AHepBurn said:

Thor's either been sub-$200mil or barely crossed it. I don't see it doing all that different with the third, especially since the MCU audience isn't really growing.

 

Spidey also wouldn't be able to cross it without Sony renting RDJ. Hos presence in the movie is pretty much the only reason it'll get over $300mil.

 

JL should cross $300 mil easily even without WW doing spectacularly right now. They're just so damn consistent with their numbers.

Adding Hulk and fun vibe should allow Thor to add a nice chunk DOM. Especially if it's well liked which neither of the first two were. I don't see much more thank $250M DOM though.

 

And, yeah, having Stark in and around Spidey definitely inflates what it will gross DOM. Not to mention, aside from maybe Transformers which is seeing diminishing returns by sequel, there will not have been a true family friendly four quadrant action mega release since Wonder Woman which will be in it's 5th or 6th weekend when Spidey drops. Again, I might be totally wrong, but I'm pretty surprised at how little many think it will make DOM one these forums. The marketing is everywhere, for better or worse. It has Stark. Seemingly has a compelling villain played a legend in Keaton. Has a fun bubbly vibe to drawn in teens by the hordes. Has a Spider-man that audiences seem to have reacted to very positively in Civil War and marketing. It does have much, much more competition than Guardians and Wonder Woman but has a pretty awesome release date to potentially offset that with summer weekdays at their absolute peak in July. Every Spider-man release adjusts to over $300M DOM save one, Amazing Spidey 2.

Edited June 12, 2017 by JohnnyGossamer

[filmlover]

I have Spider-Man pegged for a $90-100M opening at the moment.

[excel1]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

also, TDK is the fuelled further by its quality 

 

Well, obviously.

 

WB brilliantly released Rolling Stone's epic review in late June, 3 full weeks before opening.

 

At that point, everybody and their mother knew that the film they had heard about for months was even better than the insane hype advterised. It was the LeBron/Moss of blockbusters. Once in a generation.

[Cochofles]

So, when can we expect an actual announcement for a Wonder Woman sequel? Surely this won't be like Man of Steel, right? The way WW is being received, it would be idiotic for WB not to take advantage of the fact that they now have a brand new CBM franchise (that is actually beloved by audiences and critics, for a change).

Edited June 12, 2017 by Cochofles

[JohnnyGossamer]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I have Spider-Man pegged for a $90-100M opening at the moment.

I could be wrong but I can't even imagine that. That's same OW as Amazing Spidey 2, which adjusts to an OW DOM of $97M+. I can't even imagine an OW that low. I think the absolute floor is $120M+ OW DOM. Vibes just make it seem much, much more fun that Amazing Spidey 2. That flick had a primarily love interest snap her neck and die, best friend turn into a monster, Spidey with PTSD from the death of his girl's dad, on and off relationship and lots of sulking. Nothing about that, even if very good, played to good legs with families.

Edited June 12, 2017 by JohnnyGossamer

[DMan7]

Who thinks a sequel to WW can do 1B WW?

Edited June 12, 2017 by DMan7

[jf8350143]

Even though I don't like the direction they are going with, Spiderman: Home Coming will open 100M+ and gets over 300M for sure. Every MCU movie featuring Tony Stark has passed 300m, with only one exception, the Incredible Hulk. There is a reason why they put Tony in almost every trailer and poster and other marketing material.

 

 

 

[filmlover]

Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

I could be wrong but I can't even imagine that. That's same OW as Amazing Spidey 2, which adjusts to an OW DOM of $97M+. I can't even imagine an OW that low. I think the absolute floor is $120M+ OW DOM.

True, but Spider-Man has been ongoing as a movie franchise for 15 years and it's not like this one looks to bring much new to the table other than Tony Stark showing up to help save the day (not to mention the sour taste the last Spider-Man movie left in many mouths). It's gonna take a lot for the brand to feel fresh again.

[Premium George]

3 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I could be wrong but I can't even imagine that. That's same OW as Amazing Spidey 2, which adjusts to an OW DOM of $97M+. I can't even imagine an OW that low. I think the absolute floor is $120M+ OW DOM.

That's the exact point in my mind. Iron man, good reception of tom holland, GA gonna eat it up. No way it opens same as asm2.

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

True, but Spider-Man has been ongoing as a movie franchise for 15 years and it's not like this one looks to bring much new to the table other than Tony Stark showing up to help save the day (not to mention the sour taste the last Spider-Man movie left in many mouths). It's gonna take a lot for the brand to feel fresh again.

For me, I rather pretend ASM  never happen 

Edited June 12, 2017 by titanic2187

[Daxtreme]

All-time smallest 2nd wknd drops for $100M+ openers: Shrek2 33%, #SpiderMan 38%, #StarWars TFA 40%, JungleBook 40%, #WonderWoman 43%.

— Gitesh Pandya (@GiteshPandya) June 12, 2017

 

[grim22]

6 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

So, when can we expect an actual announcement for a Wonder Woman sequel? Surely this won't be like Man of Steel, right? The way WW is being received, it would be idiotic for WB not to take advantage of the fact that they now have a brand new CBM franchise (that is actually beloved by audiences and critics, for a change).

 

SDCC is where we will get all announcements I think, including movies post Aquaman.

[redfirebird2008]

5 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

So, when can we expect an actual announcement for a Wonder Woman sequel? Surely this won't be like Man of Steel, right? The way WW is being received, it would be idiotic for WB not to take advantage of the fact that they now have a brand new CBM franchise (that is actually beloved by audiences and critics, for a change).

 

Gotta sign contract with Patty. She has a lot of leverage now and I don't blame her if she decides to take her time on the sequel negotiations. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

True, but Spider-Man has been ongoing as a movie franchise for 15 years and it's not like this one looks to bring much new to the table other than Tony Stark showing up to help save the day (not to mention the sour taste the last Spider-Man movie left in many mouths). It's gonna take a lot for the brand to feel fresh again.

If it matches the admissions of Amazing Spider-man, it will gross $300M+ DOM. I certainly don't see it coming close to Spidey, Spidey 2 or, even, Spidey 3. But, it can fall $100M short of Spidey 3 adjusted and still would've grossed $335M DOM. Having Stark and the trailers reminding viewers of Spidey in Civil War further reminds that this is new Spidey. An MCU Spidey. I think audiences have a certain level of comfort and curiosity given that.

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

For me, I rather pretend ASM  never happen 

I think many viewers are already doing that... Even casual viewers. A lot of people saw Civil War. It grossed $400M+ DOM and well over $1B+ WW. All of them know who the new Spidey is... And, if they didn't, the pervasive marketing hammers home that's he's under Stark's wing and worked briefly with some of the Avengers. I don't think that can overlooked.

[Zakiyyah6]

10 minutes ago, Cochofles said:

So, when can we expect an actual announcement for a Wonder Woman sequel? Surely this won't be like Man of Steel, right? The way WW is being received, it would be idiotic for WB not to take advantage of the fact that they now have a brand new CBM franchise (that is actually beloved by audiences and critics, for a change).

Comic con in July I think.

[DAR]

28 minutes ago, filmlover said:

There goes its chances at financial success, probably.

I can't imagine the budget is that big for it.  It could be a hit along the lines of the Accountant.   

 

But more than likely it's going to live long on cable as a dad movie 

[Cochofles]

9 minutes ago, DMan7 said:

Who thinks a sequel to WW can do 1B WW?

 

If neither Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 2 nor The Hunger Games: Catching Fire did it, there's no way that WW2 does it.

[excel1]

Does WW catch GV2? It's $40m behind but should officially start gaining today.