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fmpro

Friday estimates GR2 7 , TV 7,4 and SH 6,5

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Not surprised by GR2 as the first one is just terrible and there was no demand for a second (plus it seems that one turned out like shit too which doesn't help). TPM sinks like a stone but expected as well as who the hell wants to pay the 3D surcharge to see arguably the worst SW movie (it's only between that and AOTC, which will do even worse than TPM). The bad gross of those two better not effect the release of ROTS and the OT, which people actually want to see in 3D.

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^But those estimates aren't that big apart.

That may be true, but if the numbers are coming directly from the studios, they ought to match exactly. Even if it were a rounding issue, where one site tended to round up and the other to round down, that wouldn't explain it, since ERC is higher on The Vow but lower on TMW. Edited by Chrestomanci
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That may be true, but if the numbers are coming directly from the studios, they ought to match exactly. Even if it were a rounding issue, where one site tended to round up and the other to round down, that wouldn't explain it, since ERC is higher on The Vow but lower on TMW.

Yeah, it's wierd that it's not the same numbers coming from the studios to the boxoffice tracking sites. The only explanation would be that one of the sites is fabricating numbers.
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Cool, Safe House should cruise past 100 million.It's only the fourth time for Denzel Washington to hit 100 m. He has made 40 movies.

Denzel has had a lot of solid, under the radar hits since 2000. He's been fairly reliable at the box office. Since 2000, he's averaged a 21m OW and 73m domestic total with 14 movies, and that doesn't include Safe House, which will bolster those numbers. Very solid and steady.
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Nikki is a moron as usual. Arrietty a flop??! More like a huge breakout for Ghibli. if the estimate holds it will blow away the openings of all Ghibli films to date, even without Miyazaki on board. Heck, it will beat the openings of all Ghibli film US releases combined.

Ghibli opening weekends:

Arrietty $7 million (estimate)

Ponyo $3 million

Spirited Away $0.4 million

Howl's Moving Castle $0.4 million

Princess Mononoke $0.1 million

Tales from Earthsea $0.02 million

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Nikki is a moron as usual. Arrietty a flop??! More like a huge breakout for Ghibli. if the estimate holds it will blow away the openings of all Ghibli films to date, even without Miyazaki on board. Heck, it will beat the openings of all Ghibli film US releases combined.

Ghibli opening weekends:

Arrietty $7 million (estimate)

Ponyo $3 million

Spirited Away $0.4 million

Howl's Moving Castle $0.4 million

Princess Mononoke $0.1 million

Tales from Earthsea $0.02 million

Yeah, I agree, I have no idea what the hell she is talking about.
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I am not sure it will increase 30% on Saturday considering it is a sequel so there is bound to be some rush factor for the fans.

I dont think the rush factor will be that strong.. Most fans is of this wagon by now
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BOM

Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance sputtered out of the gate on Friday, allowing The Vow to once again claim first place at the box office. Safe House is also in the mix, and should pass Ghost Rider by the end of President's Day Weekend. This Means War had a surprisingly solid debut in fourth place, while The Secret World of Arrietty looks to be right in line with low expectations.

On its second Friday, The Vow fell 52 percent to an estimated $7.4 million. That's a fairly steep drop, though it was expected given that plenty of demand had already been filled over the past week. Through eight days, the movie has already made $69.3 million, and will pass Dear John's $80 million total by Sunday. For the four-day frame, The Vow should wind up in first place with close to $30 million.

Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance debuted to an estimated $7 million, which is less than half of the first Ghost Rider's $15.4 million on the same Friday five years ago. If Spirit of Vengeance follows Ghost Rider's pattern, it could finish in fourth place for the four-day weekend with less than $24 million.

Similar to The Vow, Safe House dropped a rough 52 percent to an estimated $6.5 million. Its $60.8 million eight-day total is very strong, though, and to this point it trails Denzel Washington's American Gangster by less than $3 million. Universal is currently forecasting a $27.5 million four-day weekend, and there's a very slight chance that Safe House ultimately eases ahead of The Vow by Monday.

This Means War opened in fourth place on Friday with a solid $5.6 million. That's a bit lower than The Tourist ($6.03 million) and Killers ($5.67 million), but up on Duplicity ($4.7 million). It also isn't too far off from Unknown, which debuted to $6.74 million on the same day last year ahead of a $25.45 million weekend. Based on this and other comparable titles, This Means War looks poised to end the four-day frame with at least $20 million.

Journey 2: The Mysterious Island eased 32 percent to an estimated $4.46 million on Friday. That may not look like much, but children's movies have long legs over President's Day weekend, and it could get as high as $25 million for the four-day frame. Through eight days, the sequel has made a very respectable $37.6 million.

Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace's 3D re-release didn't fare so well on Friday. The movie plummeted 78 percent to an estimated $1.92 million, which brings its total to an underwhelming $27.8 million. Still, by Sunday The Phantom Menace's total gross will exceed the original Star Wars ($461 million), which will make it the highest-grossing entry in the series and fourth highest-grossing movie ever.

The Secret World of Arrietty opened all the way down in ninth place with an estimated $1.7 million. That tops Ponyo's $1.17 million, though it trailed slightly in per-theater average ($1,120 vs. $1,267). For the four-day weekend, the Studio Ghibli title will earn at least $7 million.

Edited by fmpro
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Yeah, I agree, I have no idea what the hell she is talking about.

She's on crack. Nobody expected Arriety to do much of anything, Disney included. It's definitely beating expectations, granted when expectations are that small it's not that shocking. It's not like Disney is pumping a lot of money into advertising this thing. Edited by kowhite
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