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A Simple Favor | Sep 21 2018 | Paul Feig thriller with Anna Kendrick and Blake Lively

By aabattery, in Box Office Discussion

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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

I've just watched the trailer...

 

I'll go on and say

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Anna Kendrick said 

Spoiler

Her and Blake's character kiss in the movie. That doesn't happen in the book so there is some relationship stuff going on between their characters in the film. It's hinted at in the book but I am guessing the movie elaborates more on it. 

 

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Blaze Heatnix Box Office Gold

Blaze Heatnix

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Nova said:

Anna Kendrick said 

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Her and Blake's character kiss in the movie. That doesn't happen in the book so there is some relationship stuff going on between their characters in the film. It's hinted at in the book but I am guessing the movie elaborates more on it. 

 

 

Probably, but my post isn't a spoiler, just my opinion about what may happen in the movie. XD

 

I just don't want to be correct, so I put the tag to hide it. :)

 

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TombRaider Box Office Gold

TombRaider

Posted
Posted (edited)

this web's estimations are terrible, lol (they have ASF at 14/40 but...

 

8/10/2018 The Meg $14,000,000   $37,000,000     Warner Bros.
8/10/2018 Slender Man $21,000,000 11% $55,000,000 8%   Sony / Screen Gems
8/15/2018 Crazy Rich Asians $13,000,000   $42,000,000     Warner Bros.

 

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-predator-simple-favor-white-boy-rick-highlight-mid-september/

Edited by TombRaider
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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, TombRaider said:

this web's estimations are terrible, lol (they have ASF at 14/40 but...

 

8/10/2018 The Meg $14,000,000   $37,000,000     Warner Bros.
8/10/2018 Slender Man $21,000,000 11% $55,000,000 8%   Sony / Screen Gems
8/15/2018 Crazy Rich Asians $13,000,000   $42,000,000     Warner Bros.

 

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-predator-simple-favor-white-boy-rick-highlight-mid-september/

That's run by the guy who owns these message boards :ph34r:

 

BUT in their defense, films like these (The Meg, CRA and even this one) are imo hard to track. I don't think any trade got those films right (expect for Slender Man). These are the films that always give me trouble because sometimes they follow a model perfectly and you get it right and other times, they don't and break out. Industry tracking relies so heavily on social media, youtube views, advance tickets and polls when in reality non franchise films aren't going to be behaving in one set way. For example, The Meg for all intents and purposes had bad social media activity and yet opened to $40M+. If you also look at its presales the week of release, while they were good, they were not indicative of a $40M+ weekend. 

 

This film can go either way. I think as long as it gets decent reviews (doesn't get trashed), it will do fine and open in the high teens with a $55-$60M total.  A critic in Australia who just got back from a screening told me that the review embargo for Australian critics is 8AM (Eastern Australian time) September 10th which would be Sunday night in the states. So that could either kill this movie's week of release presales or it can drive a last minute push. We shall see. 

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted

Long range predictions are of course more off than short range.   Significant marketing and pre-sales a month out are usually just for blockbusters which is why predictions further out for non blockbusters/ franchises are more erratic.  Reviews also have an impact.   

 

Anyway, the latest long term projection was from last week.

 

AUGUST 31, 2018

 

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-star-born-hunter-killer-johnny-english-strikes/

 

9/14/2018 A Simple Favor $13,500,000 -4% $38,600,000 -4% 3,000 Lionsgate
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TombRaider Box Office Gold

TombRaider

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Long range predictions are of course more off than short range.   Significant marketing and pre-sales a month out are usually just for blockbusters which is why predictions further out for non blockbusters/ franchises are more erratic.  Reviews also have an impact.    

 

Anyway, the latest long term projection was from last week.

 

AUGUST 31, 2018

 

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-star-born-hunter-killer-johnny-english-strikes/

 

9/14/2018 A Simple Favor $13,500,000 -4% $38,600,000 -4% 3,000 Lionsgate

yeah this seems more realistic to me than nova's prediction. i hope ryan reynolds promotes it on his insta and we all know blake obvious will do and they both have a lot of followers so i'm hoping it does a 15m OW

 

Their peppermind prediction seems way off

 

9/7/2018 Peppermint $13,000,000   $34,000,000   2,850 STX Entertainment

 

 

I am thinking 8/21

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Cap Summer Tentpole

Cap

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Nova said:

BUT in their defense, films like these (The Meg, CRA and even this one) are imo hard to track.

Shawn also said that on movies like CRA, he prefers to go more conservated with his forecasts.

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted
On 9/7/2018 at 11:24 AM, TombRaider said:

yeah this seems more realistic to me than nova's prediction. i hope ryan reynolds promotes it on his insta and we all know blake obvious will do and they both have a lot of followers so i'm hoping it does a 15m OW

 

Their peppermind prediction seems way off

 

9/7/2018 Peppermint $13,000,000   $34,000,000   2,850 STX Entertainment

 

 

I am thinking 8/21

It's opening to a projected $12.7m - so quite on point.

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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Barnack said:

That a twist.

I mean in the film's defense, the book had SOOOOO MUCH going on that there would no way anyone would take it seriously (in a Gone Girl type way) so I can understand why someone would want to have fun with the premise of those kinds of thrillers and just go batshit crazy with it 

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