Transformers Last Knight 5.5m in previews...WW 5.45 -37% from last Tuesday

[Barnack]

54 minutes ago, Heat Vision said:

This film has a hefty 260 million production budget. What does it need to break even at this point? 

 

Rumors did put it at 217 to 260 million I think:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-preview-transformers-5-looks-biggest-bang-overseas-1014891

The studio puts the film's budget at $217 million before a major marketing spend.

 

That change the break even point quite a bit, and Bay/Walhbergh/Hasbro/others (like Speilbergh if he got involved on that one) could be getting bonus that start before the break even point, they were in the past, that make the calculation hard (because you need to make the budget growth by that amount at BE level)

 

The budget at the break even point could be at 300 million for example, even if it started at 230m before bonus started.

 

Combined with the China heavy source of revenue, weak domestic the break even point could be quite high.

 

If we start from those estimate for a rough start:

http://deadline.com/2015/03/transformers-age-of-extinction-profit-box-office-2014-1201391233/

 

Total cost: 593.2 (with a 210 million budget, similar to the 217 mentionned above)

Total revenue: 843.36

 

The total cost at break even point would be lower (less residual, less participation bonus than they gave on that billion dollar hit) a little bit, say at 580m (using a larger rumored budget of 235 instead of 210m for T4 deadline estimate).

 

It would grossly do 580 million revenue by doing about 580/843 it's box office if it follow similar theatrical rental/total revenue pattern, it would be a break even point around a performance like this:

 

171m dom + 377m intl + 224m china = around 772m WW

 

If it does only 145m dom, that could up the needed WW total a bit higher to around 805m

 

Now those number start with a deadline estimate, those are not real figure, the market changed a bit, the budget is a bit secret and also there is many big partner/financier like this, the big China 1 billion partnership, Hasbro, etc... and Paramount break even point will not be necessarily be the same has for the 3rd party financier, studio often pay the distribution cost first and get a lower break even point that others taking a bigger risk (but usually having invested less and did 0 work).

 

If someone has a better idea how China box office translate into revenue in a movie life, maybe the above scenario is really pessimistic about ancillary revenue in China and that it change since, and it would be significantly lower if everyone accepted to shift from first dollar gross bonus to a post break even bonus, to something more like 650m WW, but I doubt people want to do transformer movies to accept to take a risk like that.  Also the deadline estimate put only 30m at the line Merchandise, that seem quite low for a toy ads movie.

 

 

 

Edited June 21, 2017 by Barnack

[BoilingHotCoffee]

$1 billion has to be off the table now. 

[Ethan Hunt]

In theatre for Cars 3

[That One Girl]

32 minutes ago, CJohn said:

June 21, 2017 - The day Paramount ended.

 

Luckily, God Gianopulos is going to prevent the studio from killing itself.  Bless his soul.

[That One Girl]

Just now, Ethan Hunt said:

In theatre for Cars 3

 

I only gave this a like cause I was reminded of that time when you said you were in the theater for Rogue One and you got like 10 likes.

[Ethan Hunt]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

I only gave this a like cause I was reminded of that time when you said you were in the theater for Rogue One and you got like 10 likes.

I of course came of the movie to say that it was hot garbage. Hopefully that doesn't happen this time

[m3racer123]

I've been predicting under $150m for TF5 all along, it will be interesting to see if my club is a success.

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/23099-transformers-the-last-knight-under-150-175m-dom-club-merged-the-two-clubs/

[CJohn]

15 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Luckily, God Gianopulos is going to prevent the studio from killing itself.  Bless his soul.

Lol. Gianopulos is probably on suicide watch as we speak.

[That One Girl]

Just now, CJohn said:

Lol. Gianopulos is probably on suicide watch as we speak.

 

The Paramount reign of terror begins.

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/features/paramounts-jim-gianopulos-starting-his-fox-exit-reviving-a-struggling-studio-1015023

[Cmasterclay]

So this is the parking lot report equivalent: I was at Universal Orlando a few weeks ago, and the line for both Harry Potters and the Marvel rides were over an hour, Kong, Mummy, and Jurassic Park were 45 minutes, Despicable Me was an hour, and even Men In Black and Shrek were at least a half hour. Transformers was only 10 minutes! Right in the middle of the day too. #NotAnEvent. At theme parks, at least.

[WrathOfHan]

I think Paramount's remainder of the year slate looks pretty damn great:

 

An Inconvenient Sequel could do extraordinary numbers for the genre

mother!, Cloverfield, and Daddy's Home will all gross at least 70M and stand decent chances at 100M

Suburbicon will be a solid midsize hit

Downsizing is a wild card

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

So this is the parking lot report equivalent: I was at Universal Orlando a few weeks ago, and the line for both Harry Potters and the Marvel rides were over an hour, Kong, Mummy, and Jurassic Park were 45 minutes, Despicable Me was an hour, and even Men In Black and Shrek were at least a half hour. Transformers was only 10 minutes! Right in the middle of the day too. #NotAnEvent. At theme parks, at least.

 

Hmm...

 

Mummy over Transformers confirmed?

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

So this is the parking lot report equivalent: I was at Universal Orlando a few weeks ago, and the line for both Harry Potters and the Marvel rides were over an hour, Kong, Mummy, and Jurassic Park were 45 minutes, Despicable Me was an hour, and even Men In Black and Shrek were at least a half hour. Transformers was only 10 minutes! Right in the middle of the day too. #NotAnEvent. At theme parks, at least.

The waits for Transformers fluctuate a lot. Ever since Fallon opened (they're within 500 feet of each other), waits have subsided a bit, but they really can be anywhere from 30-70 minutes on a non-peak day.

Edited June 21, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[YM!]

56 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Another cinematic universe bites the dust. 

 

I guess that cookie cutter Marvel formula ain't so easy to copy. 

It's almost as if there's some quality behind it.

[jj99]

40 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

no, Groot 2, Wonder Woman, then Gru 3

 

 

this must happen. 

 

I predicted DM2 to win in the summer game with 400M.

 

With all the recent flops, i hope it really breaks out. 

[WrathOfHan]

I'm reading the Gianopulos interview right now, and he seems to imply that Annihilation could still release this year.

[The Panda]

Paramount isn't dead because Transformers is (expectedly) underperforming domestically.  They aren't even making the Transformers movies with the US in mind really, it'll still made a nice profit.

 

I do think it'll have diminishing returns world wide though, and so I don't see there being much more to milk from this franchise after this.

[PhantomX1313]

Breaking: Paramount files for bankruptcy 

[aabattery]

58 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

@WrathOfHan could see a picture of my dog wearing my hat but he deleted snapchat

 

C'mon you can't say that and not link a picture of your dog wearing a hat.

[grey ghost]

Now Paramount only has Star Trek and Mission Impossible as their only major franchises.

 

RIP