Thursday Numbers (June 22): TF5 8.1M, Cars 3 4.4M, WW 4M (Deadline)

[a2k]

TF5 trading graph is worth a lookie https://www.hsx.com/security/view/TFRM5

[Water Bottle]

7 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

 

All hail the king, apparently.

 

Yeah, I don't expect RT to stay as it is by the end of this year. Studio pressure will mount on it.

 

How would they change RT?

[GiantCALBears]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

It's not really a healthy number. Just because one moving is tanking pretty badly doesn't mean the other one isn't still tanking as well

In fairness, both of these movies are OS plays at this point (& were the major reason they were given the green lights). 

[narniadis]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

100+ will happen easily. But 130+ is not a lock.

 

In comparison, POTC5 is looking at ~159.5 by the end of this weekend of 4.5-5.

So it has a good shot at 170 once the dollar bump is done. That looks like a healthy number post TF5.

Yeah I am kicking myself for raising my SG prediction from 180cause the 180 would have been great. 

[Premium George]

1 minute ago, GiantCALBears said:

In fairness, both of these movies are OS plays at this point (& were the major reason they were given the green lights). 

And tf5 is doing bad OS too. That's why unlike f8, no "OS will save it" comments.

[Jonwo]

I think Disney will be happy with Pirates' total, don't know if they'll greenlight a sixth film but I wouldn't be surprised if they did.

[a2k]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

I think Disney will be happy with Pirates' total, don't know if they'll greenlight a sixth film but I wouldn't be surprised if they did.

 

750+ ww is looking very real.

170 dom + 530-535 os-japan (as of today os-japan is 508. last weekend was 19 so 530+ is reasonable) = 700-705 ww-japan.

45-50 from japan will give 750 (japan could do 60-70 too but am using a lower number).

[Zakiyyah6]

10 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

It's not really a healthy number. Just because one moving is tanking pretty badly doesn't mean the other one isn't still tanking as well

Yeah this revisionist idea that Pirates has done really well domestically because another movie is doing worse is odd.

[mahnamahna]

12 hours ago, GiantCALBears said:

DM3 & Spidey are on the way to save the day plus you got what's left of WW. 

TF5 is just paying the price for three consecutive poorly-made, 150-165 minute sequels to the original 2007 crowdpleaser.

 

I wouldn't be shocked if WW and Cars 3 both remain above $30 million+ this weekend since TF5 is looking to do $35 million OW.

 

 

[Arlborn]

Just now, Water Bottle said:

 

How would they change RT?

Oh I have no idea, it's just that once you start hearing studios talking about its impact on trades the whole "where there's smoke there's fire" scenario starts to play out in my head.

 

The only thing I'd love for them to do is to make it easier for people to check the consensus among their favorite critics, I think that would make a lot of sense as a next step to make it more user-friendly but I imagine that's no what the studios have in mind for it. As i said, I have no idea.

[BoilingHotCoffee]

What a plot twist.

 

Did not see POTC5 coming on top of TF5 a few months ago.

 

I think TF5 ends up a hair under $650M WW. But I am still wondering how its legs in China will fare at the moment.

 

With Japan next week it looks like POTC5 will at least hit $750M WW.

[a2k]

10 minutes ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

And tf5 is doing bad OS too. That's why unlike f8, no "OS will save it" comments.

 

tf5 probably looking at 130 dom + 290 ch + 300 (?) os-china =720 ww

so i would consider it well saved if the prod budget is "only" 215-220 (like reported).

 

but yeah, f8's been saved to completely different category. that one is a legit os blockbuster : 390 ch and 610 os-ch. that 610 is as amazing as the china gross. really thought it would do less os-china.

Edited June 23, 2017 by a2knet

[Spidey Freak]

19 minutes ago, zackzack said:

WW will pass all DCEU movies even in their adjusted domestic figures.

Boys, you gonna allow a girl kick your ass?!!

 

Yes

 

 

And it took only 21 days. Unbelievable. 

[John Marston]

3 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Yeah this revisionist idea that Pirates has done really well domestically because another movie is doing worse is odd.

 

 

Its not doing good domestic but it's at least better than the 140-150 it looked liked after the second weekend 

[GiantCALBears]

Oh I have no idea, it's just that once you start hearing studios talking about its impact on trades the whole "where there's smoke there's fire" scenario starts to play out in my head.
 
The only thing I'd love for them to do is to make it easier for people to check the consensus among their favorite critics, I think that would make a lot of sense as a next step to make it more user-friendly but I imagine that's no what the studios have in mind for it. As i said, I have no idea.

How lazy are we getting where it's difficult to find your favorite critics opinion? I get the point behind aggregating your own RT score but it's not going to change the issues people have with the "good or not" choice.

[a2k]

Now only DM3 and SM6 can challenge GOTG2 for the summer WW crown.

 

DM3 could do it with 900+.

SM6 can challenge GOTG2 but not DM3 imo.

[Arlborn]

4 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

How lazy are we getting where it's difficult to find your favorite critics opinion? I get the point behind aggregating your own RT score but it's not going to change the issues people have with the "good or not" choice.

It's a review aggregator; the ship has already long sailed on your whole "lazy" point from the moment RT came into existence and became popular. We all know anyone could actually just google each of their favorite critics reviews if they wanted to but the whole point of an aggregator is to make things easier, faster and more dynamic in an age where that's what most people want. Well, that and shiny numbers. But yeah, I'm glad you get my overall point.

 

Edited June 23, 2017 by Arlborn

[The Futurist]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Now only DM3 and SM6 can challenge GOTG2 for the summer WW crown.

 

DM3 could do it with 900+.

SM6 can challenge GOTG2 but not DM3 imo.

 

Maybe Apes 3 can go there, movie seems to be insanely good.

[GiantCALBears]

It's a review aggregator; the ship has already long sailed on your whole "lazy" point from the moment RT came into existence and became popular. We all know anyone could actually just google each of their favorite critics reviews if they wanted to but the whole point of an aggregator is to make things easier, faster and more dynamic in an age where that's what most people want. Well, that and shiny numbers. But yeah, I'm glad you get my overall point.
 

I think the issue with RT is the same thing that makes it great to me personally. I personally am OK with a ranking system that's basically a compilation of "hot or not." If you want to check out the level of quality it's not a great choice and Metacritic is much better.

[zackzack]

12 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Yes

 

 

And it took only 21 days. Unbelievable. 

 

You are a masochist