Thursday Numbers (June 22): TF5 8.1M, Cars 3 4.4M, WW 4M (Deadline)

[a2k]

23 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

China theatrical net return is right in the average of intl market yes, around 21-22% because of how little releasing is there for the studio.

 

If you do 100m domestic bo with a 40 million domestic release P&A, you do around 13 million rental net return.

If you do 100m china bo with a 4 million China release P&A, you do around 21 million rental net return.

 

If you do 200m domestic bo with a 55 million domestic release P&A, you do around 51 million rental net return.

If you do 200m china bo with a 7 million China release P&A, you do around 43 million rental net return.

 

Has you expect for very large number of 250+, China theatrical return is not that worst than the domestic market, even better for a large portion of it, and with no risk to loose money involved.

 

The big difference, is the anciellary market, the US is special from dvd to toys versus most other it seem, and the TV market is also special in the US.

 

I did in the past look at the total domestic revenue vs domestic bocx office and the same for intl, and the rules of thumbs is that domestic box office is worth about 1.3 times Intl box office and could be a ratio to compare movie with different dbo/intl ratio.

 

Thanks. Love your posts.

[miketheavenger]

7 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

I did see that. It seems crazy high... I don't see how it can possibly get into that range unless it either has a really abnormal Friday jump (abnormal for the end of June) or it stays almost flat on Sunday, or both.

I think it'll end up around 24-25m, which will still be fantastic (about a 40% drop).

[grey ghost]

Looks like Spider-man Homecoming isn't listed for upcoming Disney films on BOM.

 

I guess Sony needs the win a little more than Disney. 

[Plain Old Tele]

3 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

I think there is sometimes this misconception that people will just decide to go the movies anyways and shift their business to stronger performers because a specific tentpole sucks (in this case TF5). It doesn't always work like that, this weekend could be pretty ugly as far as holds go especially given the tough comps from last weekend. 

 

I agree, but you know how it goes: every so often a movie performs completely unexpectedly.

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

Looks like Spider-man Homecoming isn't listed for upcoming Disney films on BOM.

 

I guess Sony needs the win a little more than Disney. 

 

It's a Sony film as they financed it and distributed it. Marvel will only get a licensing fee from it much like they did with previous Spidey films

[Walt Disney]

Nevermind.

Edited June 23, 2017 by Walt Disney

[Goffe]

23 minutes ago, MrPink said:

And then I'm gonna find you and punch you in the face.

And that will probably be a better experience than watching Strar Trek Beyond. At least it will be shorter.

[FilmBuff]

Please God no more terminators. That franchise has been beat to death with a shovel.

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, FilmBuff said:

Please God no more terminators. That franchise has been beat to death with a shovel.

 

What if Cameron returns?

[grey ghost]

What's deadline's weekend projections for Cars 3?

 

I can't find them.

[TalismanRing]

12 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Looks like Spider-man Homecoming isn't listed for upcoming Disney films on BOM.

 

I guess Sony needs the win a little more than Disney. 

 

Disney just cares abut saving their flagship Marvel character so they can continue selling billions in SM merchandise.

[Barnack]

22 minutes ago, jimisawesome said:

 

Bond movies have a good third to over half of their budgets covered with product placement and a good 60 percent of P&A paid for by the same partners.  And this is with their relationship with Sony hurting their ability to sell say their phone rights for even more.   Throw in their tax breaks and location kickbacks and its basically impossible for a Bond Film not to be in profit from just NA box office. 

 

Sony only advantage is to win the bid in case of a tie, they need to match Samsung and others offer for every product they achieve to place in the movie (that and well in way some of what they pay come back to them).

 

For the last Bond, Samsung offered 50m in advertising and 5 million in actual cash (that a really big amount and not common to have actual money involved in product placement, but Bond is the biggest ads for luxury product and smarthphone the biggest product placement I think) for a complete world campaign making Samsung the official Bond smartphone and having him using it in the movie. Some of that cash would have gone directly to Craig not to the movie thought.

 

I doubt it is possible for a Bond movie to be in the profit from the NA box office alone, yes they have really good price on budget and P&A for a movie like this, but it is still incredibly high cost.

 

Even for something extreme like Skyfall, from Sony point of view (the marketing is so low with the help of product placement, but also half of the marketing is paid by MGM):

 

DOMESTIC THEATRICAL REVENUE 160,905

  DTH MARKETING (26,661) 

  DTH PRINTS (COS) (3,257)

  DTH WPF, DUES, OTHER (COS) (1,675)

 

DOMESTIC THEATRICAL MARGIN 129,312 

 

DIRECT PRODUCTION COSTS (188,782)

OVERHEAD (9,370)

 

For Spectre, at 200 domestic:

DOMESTIC RENTALS 106,000

TOTAL DOMESTIC ADVERTISING (51,600)

DOMESTIC PRINTS (9,750)

OTHER COSTS (8,090)

PRODUCTION COST (220,000)

Edited June 23, 2017 by Barnack

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

I think people need to get rid of those "save by overseas", it's true international market is much bigger place especially china, but please bear in mind, POTC5, transformer 5, aliens or the mummy, through doing poor now domestically, all these franchise were initially doing very good here in USA, the overseas market only then followed up in the sequel.

 

Meaning, to get your film be successful in at least a decade, you still need to get "approval" from USA audience, the market still the biggest in the world, and have a huge post-cinema lifespan.

 

To me, film doing good in USA tends to have better overseas, USA's number has huge indirect influence in OS market and OS market react correspondingly.As example for GO, I dont think Get out could make $80m overseas if wasn't doing that huge in USA. 

 

All true, it's starting to look like when a franchise falls in domestic market, overseas can maybe save another installment or two, but eventually fatigue follows in overseas market as well, and domestic market is still very telling of the eventual fate of a franchise

[John Marston]

1	(1)	Transformers: The Last Knight	Paramount Pictures	$8,136,954	-48%	4,069	$2,000	$23,795,489	2
-	(4)	47 Meters Down	Entertainment Studi…	$1,237,361	+1%	2,270	$545	$16,825,932	7
-	(6)	The Mummy	Universal	$1,070,455	+1%	3,807	$281	$62,683,670	14
-	(7)	Rough Night	Sony Pictures	$875,672	n/c	3,162	$277	$11,934,947	7
-	(9)	Captain Underpants: The Fir…	20th Century Fox	$837,509	+11%	2,372	$353	$61,463,176	21
-	(11)	It Comes at Night	A24	$181,861	+1%	2,450	$74	$12,243,168	14
-	(12)	The Book of Henry	Focus Features	$167,435	+4%	579	$289	$2,157,355	7
-	(13)	Baywatch	Paramount Pictures	$129,875	+2%	609	$213	$55,907,889	29
-	(14)	The Boss Baby	20th Century Fox	$68,397	+13%	260	$263	$172,749,372	84
-	(-)	My Cousin Rachel	Fox Searchlight	$56,076	+4%	368	$152	$2,230,675	14
-	(-)	Alien: Covenant	20th Century Fox	$47,343	-4%	400	$118	$72,993,461	35
-	(-)	Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The L…	20th Century Fox	$32,694	+14%	171	$191	$20,218,914	35
-	(-)	The Fate of the Furious	Universal	$29,650	+13%	175	$169	$225,052,880	70
-	(-)	The Hero	The Orchard	$16,481	+16%	27	$610	$257,964	14
-	(-)	Snatched	20th Century Fox	$15,614	-1%	211	$74	$45,476,933	42
-	(-)	Gifted	Fox Searchlight	$12,176	+9%	100	$122	$24,468,706	77
-	(-)	Dean	CBS Films	$7,605	+4%	83	$92	$237,036	21
-	(-)	The Exception	A24	$4,130	-18%	14	$295	$112,334	21
-	(-)	Lowriders	BH Tilt	$3,860	-11%	40	$97	$6,179,955	42
-	(-)	Warriors of the Dawn	FIP	$3,441	+25%	32	$108	$61,730	7
-	(-)	The Lovers	A24	$2,275	-24%	35	$65	$2,158,696	49
-	(-)	Their Finest	STX Entertainment	$1,945	+23%	29	$67	$3,603,484	77
-	(-)	Logan	20th Century Fox	$1,652	+4%	22	$75	$226,258,569	112
-	(-)	Jeremiah Tower: The Last Ma…	The Orchard	$331	-87%	14	$24	$225,963	63
-	(-)	Radio Dreams

[Plain Old Tele]

Looks like everyone's recovering from a suppressed Wednesday.

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

I think people need to get rid of those "save by overseas", it's true international market is much bigger place especially china, but please bear in mind, POTC5, transformer 5, aliens or the mummy, through doing poor now domestically, all these franchise were initially doing very good here in USA, the overseas market only then followed up in the sequel.

 

Meaning, to get your film be successful in at least a decade, you still need to get "approval" from USA audience, the market still the biggest in the world, and have a huge post-cinema lifespan.

 

That could be true or not, when those franchise started in the early 2000's, I'm not even sure they got China release, it was certain that those movie would get sequels only if they did well domestic.

 

What happen with Warcraft and resident evil could be an indication if Intl only franchise from US studio has some reality on it, or if it is not the time yet (they need to build some China Netflix or other ancillary better base for it to become reality).

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I doubt it is possible for a Bond movie to be in the profit from the NA box office alone, yes they have really good price on budget and P&A for a movie like this, but it is still incredibly high cost.

 

 

 

I would argue the UK is more important for Bond than the US, that's where most of the OS money is made. 

[John Marston]

(5)

All Eyez on Me

Lionsgate

$1,083,911

-10%

2,471

$439

$32,792,319

7

[Barnack]

21 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

What studio is making the next Bond movie?

 

When are the rights up for grabs?

 

Eon Productions (private family business) will probably continue to do them for a long time, the distribution rights (now a partnership between MGM/Sony and a bit of FOX on home video) are for grabs for the next Bond movie.

[DAR]

I totally get why the domestic audience is looking at TF5 and Pirates and saying you know what we're good.  I just kind of wish something else stepped in for them.  Non-CBM