Thursday Numbers (June 22): TF5 8.1M, Cars 3 4.4M, WW 4M (Deadline)

[baumer]

1 hour ago, mahnamahna said:

TF5 is just paying the price for three consecutive poorly-made, 150-165 minute sequels to the original 2007 crowdpleaser.

 

I wouldn't be shocked if WW and Cars 3 both remain above $30 million+ this weekend since TF5 is looking to do $35 million OW.

 

 

 

Three? Uh no. Part three was pretty damn awezome.

[Jonwo]

5 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

I'm not quite sure why Paramount went all-in on the Barco Escape thing, but they for sure drove up their budget a bit with very late additions to that format. (Set extensions, etc)

 

Maybe they saw it at a potential way to make more money with another PLFs/gimmick. 

 

 

[Barnack]

3 hours ago, a2knet said:

@Barnack had explained once how these % though accurate can give the wrong impression. cause China takes care of release costs and some other costs on behalf of the studio which makes the low 25% figure actually worthwhile compared to a lot of other countries. i will try to dig my posts and send it to you.

 

China theatrical net return is right in the average of intl market yes, around 21-22% because of how little releasing cost is there for the studio.

 

If you do 100m domestic bo with a 40 million domestic release P&A, you do around 13 million rental net return.

If you do 100m china bo with a 4 million China release P&A, you do around 21 million rental net return.

 

If you do 200m domestic bo with a 55 million domestic release P&A, you do around 51 million rental net return.

If you do 200m china bo with a 7 million China release P&A, you do around 43 million rental net return.

 

Has you see except for very large number of 250+ China net theatrical return is not that worst than the domestic market, even better for a large portion of it of the most common smaller number, and that was with no risk to actually loose money releasing there instead of releasing on video, not a bad deal at all.

 

The big difference is in the ancillary market, the US is special from dvd to toys versus most other it seem, and the TV market is also special in the US.

 

I did in the past a little comparative study at the total domestic revenue vs domestic box office and the same for intl, and the rules of thumbs is that the domestic box office is worth about 1.3 times Intl box office and could be a ratio used to compare movies with different dbo/intl ratio.

Edited June 23, 2017 by Barnack

[MrPink]

13 minutes ago, Goffe said:

Just don't hire Justin Lin and Paramount might be able to make the next Star Trek a decent hit.

 

They will hire Shawn Levy. And then I'm gonna find you and punch you in the face.

[Plain Old Tele]

4 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

Maybe they saw it at a potential way to make more money with another PLFs/gimmick. 

 

 

 

I'm sure that was the general goal, but there are very few Barco Escape-equipped theaters in the US. Maybe a couple of dozen at most? It's possible that Barco paid them for the opportunity, I suppose. That's honestly the only thing that makes sense to me.

[Ozymandias]

41 minutes ago, Spaghetti of 1000 Planets said:

Warner Bros. and Disney to Paramount right now:

 

 

130-150m domestic total for Transformers has me all like

 

[James]

If WW manages 30m or close o it this weekend I am tempted to say that Tele's club is a near lock.

[Plain Old Tele]

Just now, James said:

If WW manages 30m or close o it this weekend I am tempted to say that Tele's club is a near lock.

 

I don't think it gets close to 30m. We'll see.  

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

I'm sure that was the general goal, but there are very few Barco Escape-equipped theaters in the US. Maybe a couple of dozen at most? It's possible that Barco paid them for the opportunity, I suppose. That's honestly the only thing that makes sense to me.

 

I would assume it would be a revenue share agreement much like IMAX and 4DX. 

[Captain Craig]

13 hours ago, That One Guy said:

a master list of films paramount can make when they run out of ideas:

 

-Beverly hills cop 4

-Ghost 2

-Titanic 2

-Interstellar 2: Love Can't Transcend Time and Space

-What Men Want (all female remake of What Women Want)

-Crocodile Dundee reboot (all female cast too)

-Grease 3

-Godfather Part IV

-Getting Shyamalan to continue his visionary Last Airbender series

 

Anything else?

Top Gun 2 (pretty sure Cruise is talking about that being a certainty)

Jack Ryan (Harrison Ford back in an adaption of one of the books with an older Ryan)

Coming to America 2

[James]

48m OD in China for TLK.

[Plain Old Tele]

6 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

I would assume it would be a revenue share agreement much like IMAX and 4DX. 

 

I would think it had to be more than that -- the decision to add more than a handful of Escape scenes was made pretty late in the game, and wasn't cheap. But then again, who knows? I'm really just guessing.

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, James said:

48m OD in China for TLK.

 

The Lion King?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[James]

Just now, grey ghost said:

 

The Lion King?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well, when Disney will make TLK it will probably do that... in it's entire run.

[GiantCALBears]

 
I don't think it gets close to 30m. We'll see. [emoji4] 

Did you see BO.com had a prediction of $28.9m (I think it was on Monday though)? Seems absurdly high to me.

[Plain Old Tele]

Just now, GiantCALBears said:

Did you see BO.com had a prediction of $28.9m (I think it was on Monday though)? Seems absurdly high to me.

 

I did see that. It seems crazy high... I don't see how it can possibly get into that range unless it either has a really abnormal Friday jump (abnormal for the end of June) or it stays almost flat on Sunday, or both.

[jimisawesome]

33 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

 

yeah but most of the James Bond movies did not make back their budget domestically

 

 

 

 

Bond movies have a good third to over half of their budgets covered with product placement and a good 60 percent of P&A paid for by the same partners.  And this is with their relationship with Sony hurting their ability to sell say their phone rights for even more.   Throw in their tax breaks and location kickbacks and its basically impossible for a Bond Film not to be in profit from just NA box office. 

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, jimisawesome said:

 

Bond movies have a good third to over half of their budgets covered with product placement and a good 60 percent of P&A paid for by the same partners.  And this is with their relationship with Sony hurting their ability to sell say their phone rights for even more.   Throw in their tax breaks and location kickbacks and its basically impossible for a Bond Film not to be in profit from just NA box office. 

 

The OS market for Bond more than make up for any shortfalls in the domestic market, the UK box office for Spectre was $124m alone.

[grey ghost]

What studio is making the next Bond movie?

 

When are the rights up for grabs?

 

What about Terminator?

[GiantCALBears]

2 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

I did see that. It seems crazy high... I don't see how it can possibly get into that range unless it either has a really abnormal Friday jump (abnormal for the end of June) or it stays almost flat on Sunday, or both.

I think there is sometimes this misconception that people will just decide to go the movies anyways and shift their business to stronger performers because a specific tentpole sucks (in this case TF5). It doesn't always work like that, this weekend could be pretty ugly as far as holds go especially given the tough comps from last weekend.