Weekend Thread 7/7-7/9 | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SMH 117M, DM3 34M, BD 12.5M, WW 10.1M, TF5 6.3M, Biggus Dickus 3.65

[fabiopazzo2]

7 minutes ago, a2knet said:

10.5-11m for WONDY? 369-369.5 after the weekend ... would lock over GOTG2. Cause would be only 25-26 away from 395 after a 10.5-11 weekend and GOTG2 is looking at well below 395.

 

Just 30-31 away from 400, and holy shit ... 34-35 away from SM1 / Tele's Club

Good for a mediocre film... ops

[Valonqar]

10 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

42-45 is not a god signs for Spidey but is too early

 

stupid deadline

 

42-45M from Deadline is a very good sign cause Deadline is notoriously off and by that I mean notoriously low/under-predict. That number is just an embarrassingly conservative projection on their part. We'll laugh at it when the real number comes out. 

 

 

Edited July 7, 2017 by Valonqar

[JohnnyGossamer]

Guardians and Wonder Woman both well exceeded their early Friday estimates, weekend estimates by $20M+ each. Spidey will do the same. Presakes showed a $10M+ preview number, actual preview $15M+. Walk ups made a huge difference. These numbers are entirely based on matinees solely on the east coast and presales. Not buying anything until Rth or Deadline update us around midnight PT.

[nomyth]

I'm guessing 45-50 for SMH today and anything over will be a nice surprise. Will be super interesting to watch it's IM. WOM is clearly great, but how much of a rush factor was there for this compared to WW? It's gonna be a fun weekend!

 

Deadline better not be trolling us with that 11M figure for WW. This is the weekend I've been the most nervous for WW. If it comes out unscathed, I don't see how it misses 400M.

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, The Panda said:

 

Civil War came out in May, and SM:H is coming out in the middle of the summer where previews are much larger percentages of the OW.

 

CW was also a far more hyped must see event movie - hence the $25m in previews - in May.

 

Deadline already said that minus previews the early shows had SM HC running 5% ahead of WW and pulling away.  At just 5% more + previews it would do  $112m ow for a 7.27 multi

[Nova]

1 minute ago, iJackSparrow said:

$60m+ OD 

 

 

 @baumer, my last week prediction will count for the contest? Please say yes. If it does, I'm winning this thing and it will be fucking legendary 

I mean I don't know if $60M+ is happening. That would be an insane IM for the previews to OD....but I believe $50M+ is happening. 

 

I really don't see why this movie would be extremely front loaded when 

1). It's getting insane WOM 

2). Its presales never indicated front loadedness...basically it wasn't having insane presales numbers so why would I assume it's front loaded if it wasn't doing huge numbers in the presales department  

3). It's a family friendly movie so in my eyes it's going to play like a family movie 

 

I think an OD in the range of $50-53M is probably where it's headed, and then the weekend will play out from there. 

[Rman823]

19 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

So much better than the Amazing Shit-man staring Andrew Garfield. 

 

So proud of Sony for getting it right this time. Hail Amy Pascal. What a great producer.

 

[grey ghost]

17 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

that's not how it works

 

 

this is still a franchise movie with a huge upfront fanbase thus will cause some frontloading in the previews

 

It's not a direct sequel, it has fantastic WOM, it plays well to families, ppl have blue balls for a good Spider-man movie, etc

 

Why would it play out like the typical superhero sequel?

 

 

Edited July 7, 2017 by grey ghost

[Premium George]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

 

CW was also a far more hyped must see event movie - hence the $25m in previews - in May.

 

Deadline already said that minus previews the early shows had SM HC running 5% ahead of WW and pulling away.  At just 5% more + previews it would do  $112m ow for a 7.27 multi

Completely agree. Civil war was very frontloaded. It and homecoming are not much comparable.

Gotg 2 is much better comp.

[a2k]

9 minutes ago, The Panda said:

 

Civil War came out in May, and SM:H is coming out in the middle of the summer where previews are much larger percentages of the OW.

 

Good point.

But CW was uniquely front-loaded. Even ended up with only 2.29x over-all multiplier.

 

Looking at other OW/preview multipliers in summer,

SS 6.52x (August)

GOTG1 8.42x (August)

ANT-MAN 8.94x (July)

WONDR 9.39x (June)

 

And SS had that T-Mobile deal inflating things. So for SM:H to do less than 7x would still be bad.

(But it's just early estimates right now. I think it will do 110 at least in the end.)

 

Edited July 7, 2017 by a2knet

[Water Bottle]

1 minute ago, Rman823 said:

 

 

IMO she is 2 for 2 of the movies she's produced.

[The Panda]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

CW was also a far more hyped must see event movie - hence the $25m in previews - in May.

 

Deadline already said that minus previews the early shows had SM HC running 5% ahead of WW and pulling away.  At just 5% more + previews it would do  $112m ow for a 7.27 multi

 

112m would make sense, I'm just mentioning why an IM under Civil War isn't unreasonable if it happens.

 

Its also right in the middle of the range y'all kept shitting on me about.

[Nova]

The unique thing about Spider-man Homecoming is that you don't really even need to know anything that's happened before. 

 

A person could walk into the theater without watching any prior MCU film, and not be confused about what's going on. And I think in the end that's going to help the movie in terms of its legs. While it is connected to the MCU obviously, it's still very much a stand alone Spider-man film. 

[Rman823]

1 minute ago, Water Bottle said:

 

IMO she is 2 for 2 of the movies she's produced.

I feel the same way. 

[Water Bottle]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

The unique thing about Spider-man Homecoming is that you don't really even need to know anything that's happened before. 

 

A person could walk into the theater without watching any prior MCU film, and not be confused about what's going on. And I think in the end that's going to help the movie in terms of its legs. While it is connected to the MCU obviously, it's still very much a stand alone Spider-man film. 

 

Same for most MCU films though.

[Rman823]

Just now, Nova said:

The unique thing about Spider-man Homecoming is that you don't really even need to know anything that's happened before. 

 

A person could walk into the theater without watching any prior MCU film, and not be confused about what's going on. And I think in the end that's going to help the movie in terms of its legs. While it is connected to the MCU obviously, it's still very much a stand alone Spider-man film. 

But it's still filled with Easter eggs for the hardcore Marvel fans. The perfect balance.

[DealWithIt]

Yeah this is doing north of $50 million for the day. Deadline really needs to stop it with these way too early numbers, they just look stupid when they end up so far off what it actually ends up being. 

[AndyK]

Looks like the GAP are much more forgiving of reboots than I am.

 

But spare a thought for poor old Spidey, its traumatic enough for any teenager going through puberty, but having to go through it 3 times............

[Kvikk Lunsj]

It is strange to think Spider Man 3 made 150m OW a decade a go. With Inlfation that would be 176m with little IMAX screens little to no PLF, and no 3D.  That would have hit 200m in today standards

[CJohn]

6 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Oh, okay then. Nevertheless, wow if that's what it is. I mean, according to Wikipedia, The Mummy sold 40K+ tickets IN ITS 2ND WEEKEND 

The Mummy is on track to finish with over 200,000 tickets sold here. Big hit.