DUNKIRK WEEKEND THREAD | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS | Official estimates Dunkirk 50.5M, GT 30.3M, SMH 22M, Apes 20.4M, Val 17M | Wonder Woman is the new summer champ with 389M total | Summer Sale is Live!

[Maxmoser3]

Dunkirk makes a slam dunk at the top spot, Girls get high. Valerian dies.

 

A busy weekend at the movies with Dunkirk and Girls Trip both knocking out expectations while Valerian is one of the biggest bombs of the year.

 

The top 12 was at an estimated $174.1 million which was up twelve percent from last year when Secret Life Of Pets led its second weekend and Ghostbusters debuted with $46 million and then crashed.

 

Dunkirk led the weekend with an estimated $50.5 million. that debut is 3rd best debut for a World War II film behind Captian America and Pearl Harbor,and a great start for a film having no big stars headlining the film. Overall with decent word of mouth, and competition dying down, Dunkirk should hold strong and should make a domestic take of at least $160 million.

 

Debuting at second place, Girls Trip had a trippy start with an estimated $30.3 million, that debut has been the best debut for an original live-action R-rated comedy since Trainwreck two years ago. It's also great to note that it's outgrossed the totals of this summer's R-rated comedy misfires with Rough Night and The House and should outgrossed those two combined by Friday. With amazing word mouth(an excellent 88% audience score), and zero competition for a while look for Girls Trip to hold on well and make at least a domestic take of at least $105-$110 million. 

 

First holdover Spider Man: Homecoming had a typical drop for a superhero film, and it passed the $250 mark this weekend! Look for Spidey to swing close to around $300 million.

 

Last weekend's leader, War For The Planet Of The Apes got shot down with a drop around 63% which the steepest drop for the apes trilogy as Rise and Dawn dropped around 50%, and was the steepest second weeekend  drop for an Apes film since the 2001 remake. Although it's word of mouth isn't bad, look for War to be the lowest grossing outing with a total around $145 million.

 

Rounding out the top five, was this weekend's not-so lucky opener Valerian And The City Of A Thousand Planets which debuted with an estimated $17 million its debut was identical with director Luc Besson's opening day of much smaller budget Lucy 3 years ago. It is also lower than the debut February's bomb The Great Wall and March's bomb Ghost In The Shell. but it is ahead of the debut of May's bomb King Arthur:Legend Of The Sword. Overall with a budget of $208 million(without P&A costs included), Valerian is going to be a rough road for STX Entertainment/Europacorp to recover on. With mixed word of mouth, look for Valerian to behave like Veneral Disease and make $40-$45 million domestic.

 

On the brighter stuff the others holdovers for the most part saw decent holds, Despicable Me 3 saw a drop around 34% and should make $245 million.

 

Baby Driver also saw a decent drop with 31%, and should be one(along with Girls Trip) of the sucessful stories/counter-programmers of the summer. Look for Baby Driver to drive by $100 million. 

 

After a decent expansion last weekend, The Big Sick had a healthy drop near 34% and should make at least between $35-$40 million domestic. 

 

The highest grossing film of the summer Wonder Woman continues to be strong with a drop around 32%. With summer winding down, look for Wonder Woman to whip past $400 million.

 

Finishing the top 10, last weekend's underperformer horror film Wish Upon had a typical drop and should come close to $15 million.

 

Cars 3 had one of its smaller drops under 40% and should come close to $150 million.

Transformers:The Last Knight had another rough night around 60% and should make $135 million total. 

[grim22]

Summer Top 15 speculation time

 

Rank	Movie Title (click to view)	Studio  Filter A24 AAE Abk. Abr. ADC Annapurna ArcEnt Argo. Arrow Aviron BG BH Tilt BSM BST BV BWP CBS CFI CGld CJ CL Cohen Col. Crimson ENTMP Eros Factory Fathom FIP FM Focus Fox FoxS FR Free FRun FUN G&S Ghop Gold. Good Deed Grav. IFC INDEP Indic. Instrum Jan. KL LG/S LGF LGP Magn. Mats. MBox MR N/A Neon Orch. ORF Orion Osci. Par. ParV PBS PDF PNT Purd. RAtt. Rialto Scre. Shout! Society Sony SPC Strand STX TFC TriS Uni. UTV VE Vita. VLA W/Dim. WB WB (NL) Wein. WGUSA Yash ALL	Total Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Open	Close
1	Wonder Woman	WB	$389,033,279	4,165	$103,251,471	4,165	6/2	-
2	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	BV	$387,252,502	4,347	$146,510,104	4,347	5/5	-
3	Spider-Man: Homecoming	Sony	$251,711,581	4,348	$117,027,503	4,348	7/7	-
4	Despicable Me 3	Uni.	$213,322,700	4,535	$72,434,025	4,529	6/30	-
5	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales	BV	$170,620,200	4,276	$62,983,253	4,276	5/26	-
6	Cars 3	BV	$144,021,565	4,256	$53,688,680	4,256	6/16	-
7	Transformers: The Last Knight	Par.	$127,561,805	4,132	$44,680,073	4,069	6/21	-
8	War for the Planet of the Apes	Fox	$97,750,914	4,100	$56,262,929	4,022	7/14	-
9	Baby Driver	TriS	$84,233,939	3,226	$20,553,320	3,226	6/28	-
10	The Mummy (2017)	Uni.	$79,380,625	4,035	$31,688,375	4,035	6/9	-
11	Alien: Covenant	Fox	$74,016,851	3,772	$36,160,621	3,761	5/19	-
12	Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie	Fox	$71,759,237	3,529	$23,851,539	3,434	6/2	-
13	Baywatch	Par.	$58,007,344	3,647	$18,503,871	3,647	5/25	-
14	Dunkirk	WB	$50,500,000	3,720	$50,500,000	3,720	7/21	-
15	Snatched	Fox	$45,834,043	3,511	$19,542,248	3,501	5/12	-

 

 

Girls Trip is guaranteed a spot in the top 15 making the barrier for entry onto the list Baywatch and its 58M. Hopefully Emoji and Annabelle both exceed that (else it will truly be a shitty finish to the summer movie season).

 

The question is whether Emoji and Annabelle can both exceed Captain Underpants and the 71M it put up. I have my doubts about Annabelle doing 70M because like Ouija 2 which was better than the first movie, audiences might not show up for a sequel to a movie they didn't particularly like. Emoji might, but again have my doubts there.

 

Don't think any other movie will break out enough to get past the 70M barrier, Dark Tower, Detroit and Atomic Blonde all look like 50-60M at the most currently.

 

Thinking that Mummy is safe for the top 15, and the final 2 spots come down to Covfefe, Underpants, Emoji and Annabelle.

[The Futurist]

26 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

MOTHERS TRAILER WAS FUCKING AMAZING HOLY FUCK

 

Speak to me HAN !

 

[Barnack]

59 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Commenting and predicting WW grosses is a bit an exercise in futility ?

 

Versus anything regarding box office predicting and commenting on it that is useful and helpful for who ?  It is all 100% futile, useless and a pure waste of time at is core.

 

Quote

 

Did you know Guardians Vol 2 could be a 1B WW grossing movie with Summer 2014's exchange rates ?

You probably didn't I assume.

 

 

People on this message board will tend to have some idea of the impact of the ER, some people did really great work about it:

 

 

[The Futurist]

Yup, the Transfomers franchise is officially dead in America.

Under 150m for a movie this size is a big no no to any studio executive.

Wonder what they will decide to be honest, post Bumblebee movie.

Edited July 23, 2017 by The Futurist

[Jonwo]

The UK OW was huge which probably isn't too surprising considering the subject matter. 

[XO21]

Yeah..ER have a big impact just look at this:

 

Meanwhile, it should be noted that Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales — with an estimated gross of $596.6M — has now become the highest grossing title of the Pirates franchise internationally for Disney (when looking at all at today’s FX rates), thereby passing Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides which grossed $593.4M at current rates.

 

$804 (2011) -> $593,4m 

[Barnack]

57 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

already pointed out in Valerian thread. So what is the NET budget? I assume the remaining budgets are NET figures. Why did BOM not post the 150 or 180 whichever is correct after subsidies?

 

 

Box office mojo do not really commit itself that much to say if the budget they show are net, gross mix of the 2.

 

They simply say on their website:

Production Budget refers to the cost to make the movie and it does not include marketing or other expenditures.

 

The cost to make a movie would be the gross, but they seem to often put the net the trades are talking about the week of the release. Lucy they didn't use the public gross available (over $60m USD) from the same source like they just did for Valerian for a very clear example of that.

 

Valerian net budget will probably stay secret (those are pretty much always really unknown unless of a leak).

 

It is around 180m-185m after then french credit, but depending on how much VFX work was made in Canada/New zealand and other place that give tax credit for them (because France cap at 30m it is a good idea to make after a certain point a lot of the work elsewhere) maybe it is maybe closer to the 150m throw around that we think (say 167 would not be surprising). But I doubt we will ever know.

Edited July 23, 2017 by Barnack

[75Live]

well Dunkirk was very good and a good way to continue the Hans Zimmer weekend.  The concert yesterday was pretty awesome and the music in Dunkirk was great too.

 

As for the movie, it was very good, as well and glad I picked it.  Well having to have $1.60 to see it never hurt either

[Jonwo]

I'm surprised Dunkirk's net budget is $100m, Nolan's salary was 20% of it so it must be closer to $80m for everything else. Nolan taking home a nice amount when all is said and done but it's going to be profitable for Warner Bros.

 

 

Edited July 23, 2017 by Jonwo

[debarr]

The 2 World Wars are saving Warner Bros' summer.

[marveldcfox]

I can say with utmost authority that FOX had a bad summer. For the last couple of years, their summer movies have disappointed at the boxoffice. Last summer was really bad and now this summer was bad. 2015 wasn't any good too. 

 

 

[grey ghost]

Can a hardcore cinephile rank these movies from Netflix, best to worst?

 

The list is for a middle aged woman who enjoys smart but relatable filmmaking.

 

The Big Short
Sing Street
Spotlight
Boyhood
Girlhood
Clouds of Sils Maria
Frank
Overnighters
Blue is the Warmest Color
Burn After Reading
The Place Beyond the Pines

 

[Cochofles]

If you believe that Dunkirk's budget is under 100, you can believe Infinity War cost under 200 million. 

[YM!]

44 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

This is why Tree is my favorite

High School Musical 1 and 2 are classics.

[Ethan Hunt]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

High School Musical 1 and 2 are classics.

 

 

 

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, Cochofles said:

If you believe that Dunkirk's budget is under 100, you can believe Infinity War cost under 200 million. 

 

Considering that Nolan is known for being an efficient film maker and Inception IIRC came under budget, it's fairly believable and given the cast was nowhere near as starry compared to Interstellar and Inception as well. 

[Ethan Hunt]

3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Can a hardcore cinephile rank these movies from Netflix, best to worst?

 

The list is for a middle aged woman who enjoys smart but relatable filmmaking.

 

The Big Short
Sing Street
Spotlight
Boyhood
Girlhood
Clouds of Sils Maria
Frank
Overnighters
Blue is the Warmest Color
Burn After Reading
The Place Beyond the Pines

 

Spotlight, Spotlight, and also Spotlight

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Can a hardcore cinephile rank these movies from Netflix, best to worst?

 

The list is for a middle aged woman who enjoys smart but relatable filmmaking.

 

The Big Short
Sing Street
Spotlight
Boyhood
Girlhood
Clouds of Sils Maria
Frank
Overnighters
Blue is the Warmest Color
Burn After Reading
The Place Beyond the Pines

 

 

Havent seen Sing Street, Girlhood, Sils Maria, Warmest Color, or Overnighters, so I'll rank the ones I've seen:

 

1. Boyhood
2. Jesus himself
3. Burn After Reading
4. Big Short
5. Frank
6. Place Beyond the Pines
7. Spotlight

[CoolioD1]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

Can a hardcore cinephile rank these movies from Netflix, best to worst?

 

The list is for a middle aged woman who enjoys smart but relatable filmmaking.

 

The Big Short
Sing Street
Spotlight
Boyhood
Girlhood
Clouds of Sils Maria
Frank
Overnighters
Blue is the Warmest Color
Burn After Reading
The Place Beyond the Pines

 

separated from my own personal preferences Sing Street and Spotlight seems to be the most broadly appealing ones that you can't go wrong with that i don't really know anyone who hates on them. Blue and Pines are my personal preferences but seem to be much more of a coin toss they got a few haters out there.