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MCKillswitch123

WEEKEND THREAD | Weekend actuals (pg. 87 onward) - Dunkirk: 26.6M; The Emoji Movie: 24.5M; Girls Trip: 19.6M; Atomic Blonde: 18.2M; SM Homecoming: 13.2M; War For The POTA: 10.4M; Despicable Me 3: 7.4M; Valerian: 6.3M; Baby Driver: 3.9M; Wonder Woman: 3.3M

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1 minute ago, YourMother said:

 

 

Universal will do decent this year thanks to Fast/Furious and Despicable Me.

 

How will the top 3 studios rank this year WW?

 

I'm guessing:

 

1) Disney

2) Universal or Warner Bros (not sure which)

 

Warner Bros is definitely benefitting from DCEU but how much longer can Universal milk the JW/Furious/DM trifecta???

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3 minutes ago, Stutterng baumer Denbrough said:

I just hope the Emoji movie has terrible legs so it does not make the top 15 for summer game purposes LOL.

 

Dunkirks drop is good. Three multiplier should happen.

The WoM of how “terrible" it is will spread and everyone will rush out to see it.

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5 minutes ago, babz06 said:

Girls Trip.

47 Meters Down was a low key breakout. I think thats it though. Overall, a meh summer. 

 

3 break outs is actually not that bad for a single season.

 

But yeah, franchise fatigue was like a locust swarm this summer.

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23 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

That would suck.

 

I invested heavily in those movies for the fantasy box office game.

It means you are heavily fucked :ph34r:

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Can't see DUNKIRK missing 3.5x multi. I was skeptical after the ow.

Needs 176.8 for 3.5x.

 

But 101.5 by end of this weekend of 27?

131.5 by end of next weekend (30 more over Mon-Sun)

149.5 by end of weekend after (18 over Mon-Sun / 40% weekly drop)

161 by end of weekend after (11.5 over Mon-Sun / 36.5% weekly drop)

168 by end of weekend after (7 over Mon-Sun / 39% weekly drop)

172 by end of weekend after (4 over Mon-Sun / 43% weekly drop)

175 by end of weekend after (3 over Mon-Sun / Labor Day FSS / 25% weekly drop)

....180+ finish.

 

EDIT: Even if this weekend comes to 26, my drops haven't been very optimistic and average to 40% weekly, apart from Labor Day weekend. So 3.5x should happen with a 26 weekend too. Also by the above calcs, it's doing 5+ more than what it needs for a 3.5x. So a 27 weekend changing to 26 won't whittle away enough to miss 3.5x.

Edited by a2knet
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2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

3 break outs is actually not that bad for a single season.

 

But yeah, franchise fatigue was like a locust swarm this summer.

Spring took summer's thunder like many suspected it would. There were even more breakouts in Jan/Feb. I hope fall can explode, maybe a record September on the cards.

 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Star Trek Beyond did a 48% jump last year, that would be the ceiling. Wouldn't count on it however.

 

They jumped pretty similar amount on Friday. Star Trek Beyond also dropped only 18% on Sunday. If Dunkirk can pull 40% increase today and 22% drop tomorrow, that would be a great result around $27.94 million. That would be a 44.7% drop from last weekend. 

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11 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Can't see DUNKIRK missing 3.5x multi. I was skeptical after the ow.

Needs 176.8 for 3.5x.

 

But 101.5 by end of this weekend of 27?

131.5 by end of next weekend (30 more over Mon-Sun)

149.5 by end of weekend after (18 over Mon-Sun / 40% weekly drop)

161 by end of weekend after (11.5 over Mon-Sun / 36.5% weekly drop)

168 by end of weekend after (7 over Mon-Sun / 39% weekly drop)

172 by end of weekend after (4 over Mon-Sun / 43% weekly drop)

175 by end of weekend after (3 over Mon-Sun / Labor Day FSS / 25% weekly drop)

....180+ finish.

 

EDIT: Even if this weekend comes to 26, my drops haven't been very optimistic and average to 40% weekly, apart from Labor Day weekend. So 3.5x should happen with a 26 weekend too. Also by the above calcs, it's doing 5+ more than what it needs for a 3.5x. So a 27 weekend changing to 26 won't whittle away enough to miss 3.5x.

 

The best finish is that it finishes at like 187.7, below Interstellar, and then the Academy re-release in January nets it another 400-500k like Mad Max to put it over the hump

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0.9 + 9.1 + 10.9 (+20%) + 7.85 (-28%) = 28.75 OW (10 OD)

 

Don't know if the weather is gonna have some effect but can't see EMOJI missing 28. My holds are pretty conservative. I think 29+ could happen.

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Friday, July 28, 2017 

<<Prev Day <Wk <Mo <Yr
     
>Yr >Mo >Wk >>Next Day
TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day
1 - The Emoji Movie Sony $10,050,000 - - 4,075 $2,466 $10,050,000 1
2 1 Dunkirk WB $8,000,000 +54% -60% 3,748 $2,134 $82,706,220 8
3 - Atomic Blonde Focus $7,100,000 - - 3,304 $2,149 $7,100,000 1
4 2 Girls Trip Uni. $6,200,000 +95% -47% 2,648 $2,341 $51,639,220 8
5 3 Spider-Man: Homecoming Sony $3,900,000 +41% -39% 3,625 $1,076 $268,806,805 22
6 4 War for the Planet of the Apes Fox $2,975,000 +48% -50% 3,374 $882 $111,287,629 15
7 5 Despicable Me 3 Uni. $2,300,000 +18% -40% 3,030 $759 $224,999,905 29
8 6 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets STX $1,840,000 +39% -72% 3,553 $518 $25,666,147 8
9 7 Baby Driver TriS $1,175,000 +45% -33% 1,961 $599 $89,171,188 31
10 8 Wonder Woman WB $985,000 +52% -22% 1,651 $597 $392,888,706 57
11 9 The Big Sick LGF $930,000 +68% -34% 1,589 $585 $27,974,654 36
12 11 Wish Upon BG $304,164 +19% -62% 907 $335 $12,285,730 15
- 10 Cars 3 BV $271,000 -15% -49% 861 $315 $145,699,093 43
- 12 Transformers: The Last Knight Par. $155,000 +23% -51% 538 $288 $128,389,479 38
- - Detroit Annapurna $132,176 - - 20 $6,609 $132,176 1
- - Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie Fox $95,000 +46% -32% 267 $356 $72,253,606 57
- - Mubarakan Sony $85,000 - - 128 $664 $85,000 1
- - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 BV $85,000 +65% -21% 231 $368 $387,572,407 85
- - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales BV $66,000 +73% -13% 210 $314 $170,858,161 64
- - An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power ParV $61,000 - - 4 $15,250 $61,000 1
- - All Eyez on Me LG/S $13,400 +256% +55% 94 $143 $44,855,787 43
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