WEEKEND THREAD | ANNABELLE 2 - $35m; DUNKIRK - $11.4m; NUT JOB 2 - $8.9m; BABY DRIVER Crosses $100m!!!

[TalismanRing]

26 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Can anybody explain to me what the hell went down in the JLA thread?

 

 

 

In the mean time, it seems Annabelle has dropped from the 16-17M estimates.... not too shocking, really, as I expected this to be the most frontloaded of the Conjuring movies; that being said, it's still going to open north of 35M if the current pace continues, and considering how poorly recieved the 1st Annabelle was, the fact that Creation will fall just around 2M below is insane. It will probably have little difficulty making more than the original due to the solid wom, zero horror competition until It and no other movie skewing adult/young audiences quite like it in the remains of August (Hitman's Bodyguard and Logan Lucky are not quite that, I think). The Conjuring is a bonefide blockbuster franchise at this point.

 

Nut Job 2 I guess isn't a complete disaster against expectations, but it's the furthest thing from good too. And in over 4000 theaters, a sub 10M OW is a colossal tragedy. The Glass Castle piss poor - I was gonna forgive it since I thought it was a 500-1000 theater release w/zero marketing, but in over 3500 theaters, that's just not acceptable imo. Yes, I'm holding the theater counts strongly here, because many better movies could be holding on their screens instead of these wastes of time. I mean... NUT JOB 2 GOT OVER 4000 FUCKING THEATERS AND IT WON'T EVEN MAKE 10M. Good Time having a, well, good OW, but I struggle to call it "better" than Wind River, since it's gonna do about the same, and in 3 theaters, while WR did it in 4.

 

Dunkirk is falling a bit below Rogue Nation at this point, but oh well, it's still gonna make 180M. Girls Trip having another meh hold for what it should be dropping - not bad to tear it apart or anything, but it's gonna struggle to make 130M for sure, if it'll even get there. Anyway, Spider-Man's legs getting better and better by the day, finally catching up w/the very good wom. 325M is very likely if not a lock, and it may make 330M as well. Dark Tower dropping disastrously bad, to the surprise of no one. Kidnap could be doing much worse than that, so, for the 2nd weekend in a row, props. Emoji Godawful, another 50% drop? It's an original animated movie for kids, for Christ sake. Atomic Blonde okay.

 

It's a typo by deadline - it's Annabelle's theater count.   Glass Castle is in 1,461 for around a 3.2k PTA.  Solid.

[ZattMurdock]

38 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Anyway, Spider-Man's legs getting better and better by the day, finally catching up w/the very good wom. 325M is very likely if not a lock, and it may make 330M as well. 

If the $1.8m Friday estimate holds and Spidey gets a good jump this Saturday followed by soft drops like it's doing since after Dunkirk, I'd argue that crawling until crossing $336m (SM3's unadjusted) could actually happen. 

Edited August 12, 2017 by iJackSparrow

[MCKillswitch123]

10 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

It's a typo by deadline - it's Annabelle's theater count.   Glass Castle is in 1,461 for around a 3.2k PTA.  Solid.

Ohhh, okay, that makes a lot more sense.

 

In that case, alright, it's an unoffensive OW.

[XO21]

I hope Sony does a mini re expansion to make SMH pass GOGT and SM3 

[ZattMurdock]

5 minutes ago, XO21 said:

I hope Sony does a mini re expansion to make SMH pass GOGT and SM3 

Depending how above Homecoming goes over Emoji this weekend, they would be crazy to not give more screens for Homecoming instead of that film. 

[baumer]

I'm a tiny bit disappointed in the late legs of Girl's Trip.  I thought it would start seeing sub 40% drops.  Doesn't really matter of course as it's going to hit 120 or close to it.  Still an amazing number, I just thought it would have better drops by now.

[titanic2187]

why is Hidden figure still in the theater???!! I wish Fox pushed Logan this hard!

Aug 4–6

98

$454

-10.5%

3

-

$151

$169,375,149

33

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, iJackSparrow said:

If the $1.8m Friday estimate holds and Spidey gets a good jump this Saturday followed by soft drops like it's doing since after Dunkirk, I'd argue that crawling until crossing $336m (SM3's unadjusted) could actually happen. 

Dollar theaters should help too. 

[MCKillswitch123]

TOP 10 OF SUMMER 2017 vs. 2016 SO FAR (point of release: August 10th):

 

01. Wonder Woman - 400.7M

02. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 - 388.6M

03. Spider-Man: Homecoming - 300.4M

04. Despicable Me 3 - 244.6M

05. Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales - 171.5M

06. Cars 3 - 148M

07. Dunkirk - 142.3M

08. War For The Planet Of The Apes - 133.6M

09. Transformers: The Last Knight - 129.6M

10. Baby Driver - 98.6M

TOTAL: 2.157.9B

 

vs.

 

01. Finding Dory - 475.1M

02. Captain America: Civil War - 407.3M

03. The Secret Life Of Pets - 325.4M

04. Suicide Squad - 170.9M

05. X-Men: Apocalypse - 155.4M

06. Star Trek Beyond - 131.7M

07. Central Intelligence - 126.2M

08. The Legend Of Tarzan - 124.4M

09. Ghostbusters - 118.8M

10. Jason Bourne - 110.9M

TOTAL: 2.146.1B

 

The gap is much shorter than it was a few weeks ago. The effects of Squad + Bourne + Beyond are starting to be felt. Luckily for 2017, it still has a far stronger bottom half, so maybe the race is yet to be lost, but the moment SS beats DM3, 2017 winning the race is all but on the edge of going one way or the other.

[Lordmandeep]

Homecoming is heading to 325 plus million now.

 

Which I think is a great result.

Edited August 12, 2017 by Lordmandeep

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Homecoming is heading to 325 plus million now.

 

Which I think is a great result.

 

Yeh all it had to do was beat the last two I suppose. 

 

It was never going to be able to capture the success of the first trilogy. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

31 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Homecoming is heading to 325 plus million now.

 

Which I think is a great result.

Definitely after that nasty 62% drop. Shows there's still growth left in the franchise. 

[WrathOfHan]

Detroit  

LMFAO, DEADLINE IS CALLING GLASS CASTLE "THE GLASS HOUSE"  

That SMH hold is pretty stellar.

HOLY FUCK INGRID GOES WEST  3rd highest PTA of the year incoming!

Pretty good for Good Time as well. I don't quite think it has wide potential like Wind River and Ingrid, but A24 could try something on Labor Day.

Edited August 12, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[WrathOfHan]

Wind River is expanding well too. Unlike Big Sick, it has rural appeal, so if Weinstein wanted to go very wide in like a week or two, they'd be fine. Hell, they should just to take advantage of the weak market.

[Emerald kikyou]

Anabelle is doing better than I expected! The conjuring franchise  is doing fine and that makes a horror fan like me smile I'm expecting a 37 OW but hoping for 40.

[baumer]

I've been hearing a little bit of Oscar talk possibly for Robert Pattinson for good time.

 

Here's an interesting article about him in the movie. Just ignore the sentence where it says this is Robert Pattinson's first lead role since the end of the Twilight franchise LOL

 

https://www.google.ca/amp/ew.com/movies/2017/08/11/robert-pattinson-good-time-clip/amp/

[aabattery]

I almost saw Good Time a couple of weeks ago.

 

I didn't end up seeing it but that's my addition to this conversation.

Edited August 12, 2017 by aabattery

[ZattMurdock]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

Dollar theaters should help too. 

Yeah my theory has always been that the film's wom added to its position in the release date calendar would help to go beyond what most were saying after the first weekend. The blu-ray release is scheduled for the last half of October, and I think that if manages to keep its trend of soft drops that started after Dunkirk, $336+ or very close to that is where it's going, around 2.9x, not bad for a second reboot in five years and with an unprecedented recovery after the second weekend drop. Now all it needs is to have strong legs in Japan AND to breakout in China. I want Homecoming to top Guardians worldwide's boxoffice or at the very least, SM3's. 

[Mockingjay Raphael]

This massive OW proves once again the power of a well liked (and managed) brand, it's hard to see an Horror sequel increasing even when the first movie is well liked, let alone when it was hated like the first Annabelle. This movie being able to EXPAND the audience (on its total) just shows the amount of confidence that audiences has when it comes to the TCU brand these days, as I said in other thread, TCU is becoming a Pixar for Horror fans.  

[WrathOfHan]

29 minutes ago, aabattery said:

I almost saw Good Time a couple of weeks ago.

 

I didn't end up seeing it but that's my addition to this conversation.

I'd call you a casual, but I don't know what movie you subbed it with.