WEEKEND Thread | 'Jigsaw' -16.2M; TYFYS- 3.7M; Suburbicon- 2.8M

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, filmlover said:

I could see Jumanji pulling a Baywatch, but otherwise this seems right. Pitch Perfect 3 is bound to see a sizeable fall from the second.

They need to downgrade Pitch Perfect's OW by about 10M, otherwise the total is fine.

[grey ghost]

45 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Blade Runner might make only $15m in China 

Damn, half the gross of Ghost in the Shell (in China).

 

Looks like America isn't the only one mass consuming stupid pills.

[Alli]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

BOP projections and TCs: http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-jumanji-welcome-jungle-pitch-perfect-3-downsizing-father-figures/

 

Jumanji: 22/175

Pitch Perfect: 40/136

Downsizing: 10/59

Father Figures: 7/41

Bad Moms: 17.5/64 (-20/25%)

Thor: 109/280 (+4%)

Daddy's Home: 24/76 (-11%)

Justice League: 130/312 (-13/-6%)

Wonder: 16/55 (-0/15%)

 

Daddy's Home: 3,300

Orient Express: 3,100

huh why did bad moms drop so much?

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Alli said:

huh why did bad moms drop so much?

Social media numbers are on par with Neighbors 2. Likewise, Daddy's Home is looking at a similar sophomore comedy slump.

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, grim22 said:

George Clooney has a set audience for movies he stars in, him as a lead is good for 35-40M domestic and a bit more WW due to name recognition, if budgets are low that kind of steady drawing power is pretty good for Hollywood.

 

He isn’t a big draw for blockbusters though, he can supplement a bit but not open anything huge by himself. His biggest OW was Batman and Robin for 17 years till Gravity.

he has Tyler Perry-size audience but is hyped as if he has Leo-size audience. That's why he slips with movies that have bigger budget than his audience can cover.

 

I see that Damon is in this so floppage definitely won't be held against Moore and Isaac. 

[TalismanRing]

13 minutes ago, John Marston said:

a lot of small movies are bombing this year

 

 

Detroit

Logan Lucky

mother

Battle of the Sexes

Professor Marston

Only the Brave

The Snowman

Suburbicon

 

 

 

looks like even a small budget can't save an unappealing movie

 

Most, if not all of these are in the $25-35m range.   Then there were the non prestige pics like the $40m The House also bombing

 

It's a reason why studios would often rather go under $10m or over $100m. 

 

Under $10m and if it's a non starter they can still do OK in ancillary if there are stars attached and skip the wide release with higher marketing costs

 

Over $100m - a bomb can cost more but the upside is greater than having 2, 3 or even 5 mid sized pics - where most won't hit.

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

huh why did bad moms drop so much?

box office pro tend to have a short explanation to any change in prediction, in this case a mix of Thor 3 doing well with that quadrant and low social media metrics:

 

• In addition to competing for the female portion of Thor‘s audience, A Bad Moms Christmas has shown social media patterns consistent with that of Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising. As such, we’re slightly lowering expectations ahead of next week’s release.

[Alli]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

box office pro tend to have a short explanation to any change in prediction, in this case a mix of Thor 3 doing well with that quadrant and low social media metrics:

 

• In addition to competing for the female portion of Thor‘s audience, A Bad Moms Christmas has shown social media patterns consistent with that of Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising. As such, we’re slightly lowering expectations ahead of next week’s release.

that sux. i so thought it was gonna beat Daddy's Home 2

Edited October 27, 2017 by Alli

[AJG]

22 minutes ago, John Marston said:

a lot of small movies are bombing this year

 

 

Detroit

Logan Lucky

mother

Battle of the Sexes

Professor Marston

Only the Brave

The Snowman

Suburbicon

 

 

 

looks like even a small budget can't save an unappealing movie

 

Its 2017. If you can’t convince people to see them on the big screen they’ll watch em at home, and more and more people are getting comfortable with the idea.

[grim22]

5 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

he has Tyler Perry-size audience but is hyped as if he has Leo-size audience. That's why he slips with movies that have bigger budget than his audience can cover.

 

I see that Damon is in this so floppage definitely won't be held against Moore and Isaac. 

 

True, but the movies he does are not the big commercial ones either, apart from Tomorrowland and Gravity recently. This is his list of movies in the past 10 years

 

Date	Title (click to view)	Studio	Lifetime Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Rank
5/13/16	Money Monster	TriS	$41,012,075	3,104	$14,788,157	3,104	18
2/5/16	Hail, Caesar!	Uni.	$30,498,085	2,248	$11,355,225	2,232	26
5/22/15	Tomorrowland	BV	$93,436,322	3,972	$33,028,165	3,972	7
2/7/14	The Monuments Men	Sony	$78,031,620	3,083	$22,003,433	3,083	10
10/4/13	Gravity	WB	$274,092,705	3,820	$55,785,112	3,575	1
11/16/11	The Descendants	FoxS	$82,584,160	2,038	$1,190,096	29	9
10/7/11	The Ides of March	Sony	$40,962,534	2,199	$10,470,143	2,199	19
9/1/10	The American	Focus	$35,606,376	2,833	$13,177,790	2,823	21
12/4/09	Up in the Air	Par.	$83,823,381	2,218	$1,181,450	15	8
11/13/09	Fantastic Mr. Fox (Voice)	Fox	$21,002,919	2,304	$265,900	4	28
11/6/09	The Men Who Stare at Goats	Over.	$32,428,195	2,453	$12,706,654	2,443	23
9/12/08	Burn After Reading	Focus	$60,355,347	2,657	$19,128,001	2,651	12
4/4/08	Leatherheads	Uni.	$31,373,938	2,798	$12,682,595	2,769	25

 

The only flops in that list are Leatherheads which had a 50M budget and Tomorrowland which was Tomorrowland. All other movies have a 20-25M budget and earn 100-150M WW. Something so offbeat as Men who stare at goats earning almost 100M WW on a 20M budget would not happen without the name recognition Clooney lends those projects. He just hasn't mixed it up with wide appeal movies which causes him to not have a "draw" beyond the arthouse and indie audience.

[RyneOh1040]

MoviePassed the shit out of this week.  

 

Saw:

 

Battle of the Sexes: B-.  I'm a big Carrell/Stone fan and a HUGE tennis fan.  I thought all of the stuff that focused on King's life was great and extremely well acted.  But all of the tennis, epic sports stuff that would have resonated with more GA audience was contrived and boring.  The final match had absolutely no momentum to it.

 

Kingsman 2: C-.  Honestly this bummed me out so, so hard.  Loved the first and has a huge rewatch value but not only was this bloated and overlong, it was quite boring.  The entire film felt like a setup for a third movie which I doubt ever even gets made.  Really left a sour taste in my mouth for the franchise.

 

Geostorm:  D.  Went to go see this because I had a rough few days and wanted to see something shitty.  It DID NOT disappoint and I can't believe they greenlit a 100+ budget for the script.

 

The Mountain Between Us:  B-.  Predictable and a bit too long, but beautifully shot and well acted.  Actually enjoyed it the most out of everything I saw over the week.

[Valonqar]

7 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Damn, half the gross of Ghost in the Shell (in China).

 

Looks like America isn't the only one mass consuming stupid pills.

People don't like cold movies. Both GitS and BR2049 looked cold. Main character is a robot or whatever replicant is supposed to be. next bomb's gonna be Alita unless it goes direct-to-DVD. 

 

@grim22 Gravity was Bullock's show and she's a legit draw. Clooney was just a guest but not the main draw. Oceans 11 movies were ensemble movies. So his most successful ones weren't even about him. Oh, and Perfect Storm had the tsunami. Even Clooney admitted people wanted to see the big wave rather than him. I'm not disputing he has some pull but Hollywood media blew it out of proportion. Time called him The Last Movie Star which was hilarious cause he had a string of flops while Denzel and Leo were much more reliable openers. 

Edited October 27, 2017 by Valonqar

[filmlover]

I think Bad Moms Christmas will see a similar drop from the first one that Fifty Shades Darker saw from Fifty Shades of Grey, which would be an $80-85M total. Not bad since it most likely cost nothing to make, again.

[Alli]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

 

True, but the movies he does are not the big commercial ones either, apart from Tomorrowland and Gravity recently. This is his list of movies in the past 10 years

 

Date	Title (click to view)	Studio	Lifetime Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Rank
5/13/16	Money Monster	TriS	$41,012,075	3,104	$14,788,157	3,104	18
2/5/16	Hail, Caesar!	Uni.	$30,498,085	2,248	$11,355,225	2,232	26
5/22/15	Tomorrowland	BV	$93,436,322	3,972	$33,028,165	3,972	7
2/7/14	The Monuments Men	Sony	$78,031,620	3,083	$22,003,433	3,083	10
10/4/13	Gravity	WB	$274,092,705	3,820	$55,785,112	3,575	1
11/16/11	The Descendants	FoxS	$82,584,160	2,038	$1,190,096	29	9
10/7/11	The Ides of March	Sony	$40,962,534	2,199	$10,470,143	2,199	19
9/1/10	The American	Focus	$35,606,376	2,833	$13,177,790	2,823	21
12/4/09	Up in the Air	Par.	$83,823,381	2,218	$1,181,450	15	8
11/13/09	Fantastic Mr. Fox (Voice)	Fox	$21,002,919	2,304	$265,900	4	28
11/6/09	The Men Who Stare at Goats	Over.	$32,428,195	2,453	$12,706,654	2,443	23
9/12/08	Burn After Reading	Focus	$60,355,347	2,657	$19,128,001	2,651	12
4/4/08	Leatherheads	Uni.	$31,373,938	2,798	$12,682,595	2,769	25

 

The only flops in that list is Leatherheads which had a 50M budget and Tomorrowland which was Tomorrowland. All other movies have a 20-25M budget and earn 100-150M WW. Something so offbeat as Men who stare at goats earning almost 100M WW on a 20M budget would not happen without the name recognition Clooney lends those projects. He just hasn't mixed it up with wide appeal movies which causes him to not have a "draw" beyond the arthouse and indie audience.

Agreed. Those movies performed pretty good for their budgets. even Tomorrowland didn't do as awful as The Mummy for example.

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, Alli said:

Agreed. Those movies performed pretty good for their budgets. even Tomorrowland didn't do as awful as The Mummy for example.

The Mummy did $409m WW. 

[Alli]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

The Mummy did $409m WW. 

yes, i know. i was talking the us. TL did better and it was an original property. the problem for both was the budget....and the fact they sucked

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

yes, i know. i was talking the us. TL did better and it was an original property. the problem for both was the budget....and the fact they sucked

 

It still made $200m less WW with a larger budget.  The  $13.5m advantage in US B.O. does not make it more successful.

 

 

[Zakiyyah6]

Tomorrowland was a massive flop, it in no way did better than the Mummy. I swear Brad Bird and Andrew Stanton fans have such trouble calling flops from those directors flops.

Edited October 27, 2017 by Zakiyyah6

[Cmasterclay]

I have not seen a single piece of advertising for Bad Moms Christmas ever. Not a poster, not a cardboard cutout in the theater, not a trailer, not a TV spot. If I did not post here, I would not know this movie was releasing in five days, if ever. I can see it dropping big because of it, but maybe I am just in a dead zone for coverage. 

 

Baywatch coulda been a hit if reviews/buzz wasn't so trash. Jumanji is a much more well-liked and relevant property in today's world and it can be a hit with decent reviews. That's a big if, though. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

I have not seen a single piece of advertising for Bad Moms Christmas ever. Not a poster, not a cardboard cutout in the theater, not a trailer, not a TV spot. If I did not post here, I would not know this movie was releasing in five days, if ever. I can see it dropping big because of it, but maybe I am just in a dead zone for coverage. 

 

You are. It's getting a very heavy push in its target markets.