THE JUSTICE LEAGUE (and The Star and Wonder) WEEKEND THREAD | PREMIUM ACCOUNT SALE NOW LIVE | Weekend Actuals ~ JL 93.84M, W 27.54M, T:R 21.66M, DH2 14.43M, MOTOE 13.80M, TS 9.81M

[Krissykins]

Just now, YourMother said:

Assuming a $94M OW if RTH’s estimates hold, I think JL will probably land in the $240M-$260M range. 

Yeh that’s the same range it was looking at with $96m.

 

I actually wouldn’t say $250m is a lock. It would look a lot better but I guess we’ll see this weekend. 

[SteveJaros]

19 hours ago, Barnack said:

According to the leak even if the first one made the planned at greenlight profit of 69m that it did hurt the brand (you can find Sony e-mail saying that the "biggest box office title" the 2012 box office was not a good year, Men In black and Spider man franchise were both in trouble).

 

Amazing spider man 2 was certainly not a success

 

It was greenlight with 300m domestic, 550 intl, 850m WW box office in mind and with a profit of 123m in mind (16% ROI)

 

It went 91m below Sony success bad threshold in profits, the movie made less than 10m for the studio and investor combined (14m for the studio a loss of 5m for the investors), on a multiple year's between the expense and all the revenue to come in, 600m total spent, on something that is purely made for a cash grab endeavor.

 

Not sure on which metric it can be seen as a success, the planned sequels and movie universe were cancelled for a reason.

 

Profit is not a sign of success, you need a depending on the project and the studio a ROI of 8% to 25%, that tend to be significantly above the break even line, otherwise the studio would have been better to buy stock at the stock market instead of investing in a movie.

 

 

 

Agree and disagree. Agree that your last statement is spot-on, the mere presence of a profit doesn't make something a 'success', because we do have to consider the opportunity cost. If a movie earns an ROI of 5% but the studio could have earned 8% investing that money in stocks, then yes, the movie was the wrong choice to make. 

 

Still, an investment that earns 5% is far from an actual objective "disaster", as the hyperbole around here often declares. A disaster is a movie that actually loses a lot of money, not just fails to make as much as an alternative investment would have.

 

Disagree, in that we can't necessarily use a studios hopes as a guide, because studios themselves can define something as a 'failure' using their own subjective standards that are themselves divorced from a larger reality. E.g., Disney might have green-lit CoCo on an expectation of a 35% ROI, but if it actually earns 20% ROI, while that might disappoint Disney brass, in the real world a 20% ROI is a very good ROI and can't reasonably be called a failure, Disney just had outlandish expectations for it. 

 

In the case of AS2, it clearly disappointed Sony brass, who were hoping for bigger things. But, it did earn a cash on cash return of 12% for Sony, that's not too shabby. Could they have done better with another investment? I don't know. 

 

As for "franchise damage", that again is a bigger-picture issue. What is the "franchise"? Is it the two-movie "Amazing Spiderman" sequence from 2012-2014, or is the broader category of "spider man" movies generally? I say the latter, and in that case, spider man is a great example of what I'm talking about: The character is so iconic that "franchise damage" doesn't really count as a concept, because even if the studio makes an underwhelming dud that loses money, they can always re-boot in a few years with a new cast and crew, and the public will give it the same chance. The character itself is bullet-proof. 

 

So while Sony may have been dismayed a by long-term trend of declining box office for spider man films - maybe not just from AS to AS2, but going back to the 02/04/07 trilogy - that doesn't mean the 'franchise', the character was declining. It wasn't, because it's a cultural icon.

Thing is, Marvel only has one such iconic character - and Disney doesn't even own it, Sony does, whereas DC has at least two - Batman and Superman - and arguably three, with Wonder Woman. That gives WB/DC the leeway to "fail" because they can always just re-boot again. 

 

[Blaze Heatnix]

48 minutes ago, a2knet said:

JIGSAW on 88.85 ww after a 5.17 ww weekend (4.1 os + 1.07 dom). Has a shot 100 ww. IDK what markets remain.

 

Spain and Brazil are the next markets. Probably 1 million or more left domestic + 2 or 3 million overseas. 

 

It'll make 100 million worldwide. If not, it'll be very close. 

[Boxofficerules]

2 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

 

Spain and Brazil are the next markets. Probably 1 million or more left domestic + 2 or 3 million overseas. 

 

It'll make 100 million worldwide. If not, it'll be very close. 

It outgrossed Rings anyway, I seem to recall Boxofficepro saying it wouldn’t do better than Rings.

[a2k]

19 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Assuming a $94M OW if RTH’s estimates hold, I think JL will probably land in the $240M-$260M range. 

260 requires a 2.75-2.77x with 94-94.5m ow. Can't see how that happens. I think even on the high end, will max out at 245-250. 

(of course, stranger things have happened if this weekend is any indication)

Edited November 20, 2017 by a2knet

[SteveJaros]

9 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

You better believe they are in panic mode right now. They know it's a huge problem. 

 

Why would they panic?  Even if WB decides that the DCU concept was a bad one, they can still make tons of money out to infinity just making stand-alone Batman, Superman, and Wonder Woman films for sure, and then there's also no reason they can't develop characters like Aqua Man and the Flash in to big-hit franchises themselves.

 

Long run, WB is in an enviable position with the DC stable of characters. Universal, FOX, Paramount, would all kill to have their "panic" problem with the DCU. That's why Universal was desperate to start a "Dark Universe" with Frankenstein et al. because they know they can't make Fast and Furious and Jurassic Park movies forever like WB can with the DC properties.

 

Only Disney is arguably in a better long run position, and even Disney has problems WB doesn't have, because they still have the irksome issue of other studios owning some of the key Marvel properties. 
 

[Blaze Heatnix]

5 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

It outgrossed Rings anyway, I seem to recall Boxofficepro saying it wouldn’t do better than Rings.

 

Yeah, I think Boxofficepro predicted Jigsaw's final domestic gross would be 21 million. 

[titanic2187]

25 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Assuming a $94M OW if RTH’s estimates hold, I think JL will probably land in the $240M-$260M range. 

Nothing big come out next weekend except for Coco, I am sure no studio will see that JL's shortcomings.... 

[a2k]

1 minute ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

 

Yeah, I think Boxofficepro predicted Jigsaw's final domestic gross would be 21 million. 

Also surprised with legs. I remember 1.8-1.9x multiplier looking at recent Saw films. Gonna do ~2.25x.

[LaughingEvans]

As this weekend comes to a close, I have to admit it was the most fun BO weekend since Jurassic World. Thank you Joss Whedon.

[redfirebird2008]

13 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

Why would they panic?  Even if WB decides that the DCU concept was a bad one, they can still make tons of money out to infinity just making stand-alone Batman, Superman, and Wonder Woman films for sure, and then there's also no reason they can't develop characters like Aqua Man and the Flash in to big-hit franchises themselves.

 

Long run, WB is in an enviable position with the DC stable of characters. Universal, FOX, Paramount, would all kill to have their "panic" problem with the DCU. That's why Universal was desperate to start a "Dark Universe" with Frankenstein et al. because they know they can't make Fast and Furious and Jurassic Park movies forever like WB can with the DC properties.

 

Only Disney is arguably in a better long run position, and even Disney has problems WB doesn't have, because they still have the irksome issue of other studios owning some of the key Marvel properties. 
 

 

Disney owns Star Wars, PIXAR, and a bunch of animated classics that they will continue to adapt into live action profit machines.

 

The Mouse House’s biggest problem is ESPN. The people running ESPN spent a ton of money on broadcasting rights and now they are losing many subscribers each year due to cord-cutting. Disney probably wants to sell ESPN, but no one is stupid enough to buy it. 

[Lordmandeep]

Something barely making a profit is not a success.

 

 

That is just someone who does not understand finance.

 

 

That is more like you avoided complete disaster. 

[Brainiac5]

2 hours ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

RTH already said it fell about 30% on Sunday.

 

1 hour ago, RamblinRed said:

Actually RTH said more than 30%. If that is correct than sub 95 is where it ends up.

Great weekend for Wonder. Have to think it will hold really well.

 

 

If the drop holds up then it’s on par with FB.

The film still didn’t fall bigger than Mocking Jay part 2.

That film finished with a 2.77x and it faced Star Wars ep.7.

Same Multiplier gives JL 265dom.

Since it held better than MJ2 I’m certain it gets closer to a 3x.

[Krissykins]

23 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

 

Yeah, I think Boxofficepro predicted Jigsaw's final domestic gross would be 21 million. 

Lol. The worst box office prediction ever remains the one from “the-numbers” they predicted a $15m opening for Freddy Vs Jason and a $30m total. 

[Krissykins]

4 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Something barely making a profit is not a success.

 

 

That is just someone who does not understand finance.

 

 

That is more like you avoided complete disaster. 

Making a profit is not a bomb or flop either technically. 

[JonathanLB]

32 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

Why would they panic?  Even if WB decides that the DCU concept was a bad one, they can still make tons of money out to infinity just making stand-alone Batman, Superman, and Wonder Woman films for sure, and then there's also no reason they can't develop characters like Aqua Man and the Flash in to big-hit franchises themselves.

 

Long run, WB is in an enviable position with the DC stable of characters. Universal, FOX, Paramount, would all kill to have their "panic" problem with the DCU. That's why Universal was desperate to start a "Dark Universe" with Frankenstein et al. because they know they can't make Fast and Furious and Jurassic Park movies forever like WB can with the DC properties.

 

Only Disney is arguably in a better long run position, and even Disney has problems WB doesn't have, because they still have the irksome issue of other studios owning some of the key Marvel properties. 
 

 

I wasn’t aware that Hulk isn’t iconic. Furthermore, Star Wars is even more bulletproof than any DC character or Spider-Man, so let’s not pretend that Disney is hurting  They don’t envy anyone. Everyone envies Disney. They may even buy Fox and if they do, they’ll be an unstoppable powerhouse. Already with Marvel, Star Wars, and Pixar plus their live action redoes they’re in pretty shape. Beauty and the Beast would be the year’s top film if their own Star Wars movie wasn’t about to destroy it.

[Lordmandeep]

4 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Making a profit is not a bomb or flop either technically. 

Technically no but it would be seen as a failure...

 

For example, if Apple Released a new phone and it barely made a profit due to bad sales, that would be seen as a huge failure as the iPhone is the cash cow of apple.  

 

This is the Justice League, having so many iconic characters should lead to a film that is a massive cash cow and a success.

 

To be brutally honest, DCU imo had a lot of built-in advantages over Marvel in making JL into a super hit movie. They had characters that already well knew and well liked.

 

Be honest, the Avengers working and being a huge hit was very lucky for Marvel, as everything went their way.

 

 

DCU, just shot themselves in the foot and have now paid the price.

[Krissykins]

THR posted a new article there, still have the budget as $250m-$300m. WB still haven’t reported yet. They probably won’t. Must be hard to know how much it even cost lol. 

[JonathanLB]

I agree. On the surface Batman and Superman and Wonder Woman alone outgun Iron Man and Captain America and Thor easily. In fact it’s funny how things have gone. I became a pretty big MCU fan but I grew up a comic book fan, mainly Marvel, and I always thought Captain America was incredibly lame, I knew almost nothing about Iron Man and didn’t care, and Thor was almost as lame as Captain America. I loved Batman and Superman. They were my two favorites even though on the whole I was a Marvel reader and fan, it was mainly for X-Men and Spider-Man - ironically both not even Disney controlled Marvel properties / characters! So by all means I couldn’t get too excited about the MCU at first because these were the B squad as far as I cared.

 

Ultimately the quality won me over and I ended up really enjoying each character. I may not love them all, but I love the movies based on them. And I’m now legitimately an Iron Man fan, he is awesome.

Edited November 20, 2017 by JonathanLB

[Thrylos 7]

Marvel’s handling of captain America in the MCU  is one for the history books. They turned him into the coolest hero of the cu , and I am not from America.