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Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - Coco 26.11M, JL 16.58M, Wonder 12.5M, T:R 9.65M, MOTOE 6.7M, LB 4.54M, 3BOEM 4.53M, TDA 1.22M

By aabattery, in Numbers and Data

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted

This is a first: early estimates for the specialty titles.


 

Quote

 

Then there’s their The Disaster Artist with New Line which we’ve heard is a hot seller in its advance ticket sales, selling out at the Hollywood Arclight and theaters in Manhattan. Look for a big theater average as the James Franco pic, which has won best adapted screenplay at NBR, and best actor for Franco at the Gotham Awards, hits 19 venues. Current raw gross for the pic and growing is an estimated $129K.

 

Searchlight is going slow with its Guillermo del Toro monster romance The Shape of Water with two plays at the Angelika Downtown and Lincoln Center. Current raw gross is $27K. Woody Allen’s Wonder Wheel has a current B.O. of $20K from five venues in New York and Los Angeles.

 

http://deadline.com/2017/12/coco-three-billboards-shape-of-water-wonder-post-thanksgiving-weekend-box-office-1202217467/

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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53 minutes ago, filmlover said:

This is a first: early estimates for the specialty titles.


 

http://deadline.com/2017/12/coco-three-billboards-shape-of-water-wonder-post-thanksgiving-weekend-box-office-1202217467/

If The Disaster Artist gets over 300k today, it should make a minimum 800k weekend/42.1k PTA. If it follows Battle of the Sexes and gets into 1,200 theaters next weekend, that would translate to 5.6M, which would be good enough for the top 5. Hopefully it gets into the high-1000s or 2k theaters.

 

The Shape of Water should be on track for a PTA between Lady Bird and CMBYN. Out of all the recent indie contenders, this has the greatest chance at breaking out significantly across America.

 

Wonder Wheel.... could be worse, I guess?

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MikeQ Box Office Gold

MikeQ

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Posted (edited)

Coco would have to have seemingly poor increases for Friday and/or Saturday (for the type/genre of movie it is) to hit only $23M for the weekend. I think it is very likely looking at a $25+ million weekend. Here is what the following comparable films did on the same post-Thanksgiving weekend:

 

Moana: FRI +238% / SAT +98% / SUN -32%

Frozen: FRI +260% / SAT +124% / SUN -35%

Tangled: FRI +260% / SAT +93% / SUN -35%

 

Using Moana's weekend pattern, Coco makes $29.7M this weekend. Perhaps Coco's Friday increase will be more muted, but even then, $25M+ still seems likely. Maybe I'm missing something...

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited by MikeQ
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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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Three Billboards and Lady Bird have been polar opposites of each other at my theater. Lady Bird only sold between 3-7 tickets for each of the first three showings while Three Billboards was in the low to high-20s for the first three shows. However, Lady Bird managed to get ahead of Three Billboards at night with 20 vs 15; their late shows both sold nothing, though. I'm curious how both will fare tomorrow as Lady Bird is much younger skewing (the other 6 people in my audience at 4 were all seniors, and they were definitely uncomfortable at some parts :lol: ) 

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NCsoft Box Office Gold

NCsoft

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

Coco would have to have seemingly poor increases for Friday and/or Saturday (for the type/genre of movie it is) to hit only $23M for the weekend. I think it is very likely looking at a $25+ million weekend. Here is what the following comparable films did on the same post-Thanksgiving weekend:

 

Moana: FRI +238% / SAT +98% / SUN -32%

Frozen: FRI +260% / SAT +124% / SUN -35%

Tangled: FRI +260% / SAT +93% / SUN -35%

 

Using Moana's weekend pattern, Coco makes $29.7M this weekend. Perhaps Coco's Friday increase will be more muted, but even then, $25M+ still seems likely. Maybe I'm missing something...

 

Peace,

Mike

Not entirely sure whether that 23M is based on some real data, on just premature estimation using Tangled like weekend drop. Just comparing it to last weekend, 23M isn't all that bad I suppose, but looking at its relatively strong weekday performance, 23M is absurdly low. I do think a slightly muted Friday is possible, last week was the same, hopefully a small Sunday drop would help (as it was last week).

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MikeQ Box Office Gold

MikeQ

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2 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

Not entirely sure whether that 23M is based on some real data, on just premature estimation using Tangled like weekend drop. Just comparing it to last weekend, 23M isn't all that bad I suppose, but looking at its relatively strong weekday performance, 23M is absurdly low. I do think a slightly muted Friday is possible, last week was the same, hopefully a small Sunday drop would help (as it was last week).

That's true - for whatever reason, perhaps it will have smaller Friday increases in its run (as it did last weekend). I dislike when the trades give weekend projections only, and no Friday projection. I just noticed the Deadline article says a $5.7M projected Friday for Coco - this would represent a 180% Friday increase for Coco. Seems low to me, but maybe not.

 

Peace,

Mike

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narniadis Blockbuster

narniadis

Posted
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11 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

That's true - for whatever reason, perhaps it will have smaller Friday increases in its run (as it did last weekend). I dislike when the trades give weekend projections only, and no Friday projection. I just noticed the Deadline article says a $5.7M projected Friday for Coco - this would represent a 180% Friday increase for Coco. Seems low to me, but maybe not.

 

Peace,

Mike

It would be highly out of character for animated films at this time of year but anything is possible. 

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NCsoft Box Office Gold

NCsoft

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2 hours ago, That One Guy said:

 

Big Mariah Fan, hopefully the song gets nominated and she does a performance, might be a train-wreck, her vocals are so unstable these days, but I do hope to see her at the Oscars.

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
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57 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

If The Disaster Artist gets over 300k today, it should make a minimum 800k weekend/42.1k PTA. If it follows Battle of the Sexes and gets into 1,200 theaters next weekend, that would translate to 5.6M, which would be good enough for the top 5. Hopefully it gets into the high-1000s or 2k theaters.

 

The Shape of Water should be on track for a PTA between Lady Bird and CMBYN. Out of all the recent indie contenders, this has the greatest chance at breaking out significantly across America.

 

Wonder Wheel.... could be worse, I guess?

The Shape of Water's early numbers aren't that impressive tbh, especially when it's playing in only 2 theaters in New York. Its PTA for the weekend will probably be in the $70-75K range.

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grim22 Global Phenomenon

grim22

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1.) Coco (DIS), 3,987 theaters / Fri: $6.3M (-67%)/ 3-day cume: $27.6M (-46%%)/Total:$110.1M / Wk 2

2.) Justice League (WB), 3,820 theaters (-231)/$4.8M Fri/  3-day cume: $17M  (-59%)/Total: $197.7M/ Wk 3

3.) Wonder (WB), 3,449 theaters (+277) /$3.9M Fri/3-day cume: $14.1M (-38%)/ /Total: $89.7M/Wk 3

4). Thor: Ragnarok (DIS), 3,148 theaters (-133) / $2.5M Fri/ 3-day cume: $9.2M (-45%) / Total cume: $291M / Wk 5

5/6.) Daddy’s Home 2 (PAR), 3,403 theaters (-115) /$2.1M Fri/ 3-day cume: $7.6M (-42%)/ Total: $83M/Wk 4

Murder on the Orient Express (FOX), 3,201 theaters (+49)/  $2.1M Fri/ 3-day cume: $7.5M (-43%)/Total: $85.6M/ Wk 4

7/8)The Star (SONY), 2,822 theaters (-15) /$975K Fri / 3-day cume: $4.5M (-35%)/Total:$27.8M/Wk 3

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MO (FSL), 1,430 theaters (+816) / $1.4M Fri/ 3-day cume: $4.4M (0%) /Total: $13.5M /Wk 4

9). Lady Bird (A24), 1,194 theaters (+403) /$1.15M Fri/3-day cume: $3.9M (-4%)/ Total cume: $16.5M / Wk 5

10). A Bad Moms Christmas (STX), 2,251 theaters (-55) /$1.1M Fri/3-day cume: $3.4M (-30%) /Total cume: $64.8M / Wk 5

11.) Roman J. Israel, Esq. (SONY),1,669 theaters (0)/$618K Fri/ 3-day cume: $2.1M (-53%)/Total: $9.67M/Wk 3

12.) The Disaster Artist  (A24), 19 theaters / $325K Fri/3-day cume: $951k /PTA: $50k /Wk 1

13.) The Man Who Invented Christmas (BST), 674 theaters (+48) /Fri $266K (-48%)/3-day cume: $949K  (-30%)/Total: $3.2M/ Wk 2

Notables:

Titanic 20th Anniversary  (PAR), 87 theaters / $115K Fri/3-day cume: $391k /Total: $659M/Wk 1

Call Me By Your Name  (SPC), 4 theaters (0)/ $77K Fri/3-day cume: $267k (-35%) /PTA: $66,6k /Total: $894K/Wk 2

The Shape of Water  (FSL), 2 theaters / $50K Fri/3-day cume: $154k /PTA: $76,7k /Wk 1

Wonder Wheel (AMZ), 5 theaters/ $37K Fri/3-day cume: $106k /PTA: $21k /Wk 1

Darkest Hour (FOC), 4 theaters (0)/ $22K Fri (-64%)/3-day cume: $78K (-55%) /PTA: $20k/ Total: $382k/ Wk 2

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