Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - Coco 26.11M, JL 16.58M, Wonder 12.5M, T:R 9.65M, MOTOE 6.7M, LB 4.54M, 3BOEM 4.53M, TDA 1.22M

[RamblinRed]

4 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said:

Im thinking JL have bigger Tuesday increases and will give it that other 6mil.

Not saying it’s a Guaranteed by its a possibility.

The Tuesday increases are bigger, but the Wed falls are larger as well. They largely cancel each other out. The total amount spent isn't really increasing in any appreciable way.

It jumped just past FB on Tuesday but fell back behind it on Wednesday. Also, it is increasing less than FB on weekends since FB was a little more family friendly.

 

The only way for it to get to 250 is to start having stronger legs than FB and start outpacing it again. That just seems really unlikely and with a bigger SW film coming out this year I expect it to drop faster than FB did after the 15th.

 

It's a nice thought, but nothing in the data supports it actually happening.

 

[a2k]

Imagine a fictional tale of two movies 

                     A                   B

1st weekend   100m             100m

2nd weekend  60m (-40%)   40m (-60%)

3rd weekend   30m (-50%)   21m (-47.5%) // wom, legs, YASSSSS 

[mredman]

5 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

The Tuesday increases are bigger, but the Wed falls are larger as well. They largely cancel each other out. The total amount spent isn't really increasing in any appreciable way.

It jumped just past FB on Tuesday but fell back behind it on Wednesday. Also, it is increasing less than FB on weekends since FB was a little more family friendly.

 

The only way for it to get to 250 is to start having stronger legs than FB and start outpacing it again. That just seems really unlikely and with a bigger SW film coming out this year I expect it to drop faster than FB did after the 15th.

 

It's a nice thought, but nothing in the data supports it actually happening.

 

Rogue One was huge too though. IMO its the best Star Wars movie after TESB. TLJ looks ok but

Spoiler

if Luke dies

i can see legs being chopped on Star Wars

[Rebeccas]

LOL right FB only dropped 39% on thanksgiving weekend and then dropped 59.8% post-holiday, which JL barely scraped past after a 56% thanksgiving drop.

[BK007]

Great for Coco! 

 

It must be a cultural thing for Hispanic movies to have better holds on Sundays.

 

Perhaps, there are many working on Saturdays or perhaps they go after church. I think they are probably the most religious group of Americans?

 

Plus Coco is not just for children, it's a celebration of a part of their culture. 

 

Anyway, glad it's also translating well in China/Asia, could be because of the strong family theme.

 

In Europe, maybe it's not because Europeans love their independence from family. Just throwing some theories out there. 

[titanic2187]

37 minutes ago, BK007 said:

Great for Coco! 

 

It must be a cultural thing for Hispanic movies to have better holds on Sundays.

 

Perhaps, there are many working on Saturdays or perhaps they go after church. I think they are probably the most religious group of Americans?

 

Plus Coco is not just for children, it's a celebration of a part of their culture. 

 

Anyway, glad it's also translating well in China/Asia, could be because of the strong family theme.

 

In Europe, maybe it's not because Europeans love their independence from family. Just throwing some theories out there. 

I can assure large of part of the why movie resonate here, reason being, the culture/tradition of remember the dead through the day of death is too much similar with asian local tradition, we do too, have a our asian version of day of death, and a belief of the dead one will come back to visit us. The setting may be mexican , but the tradition is belong to the race/culture all over the world, that's why the movie is doing great here in asia

[Deep Wang]

3 hours ago, mredman said:

Rogue One was huge too though. IMO its the best Star Wars movie after TESB. TLJ looks ok but

  Reveal hidden contents

if Luke dies

i can see legs being chopped on Star Wars

 

I agree with you in that I'm thinking legs for this won't be too hot. But we're talking 3.6/3.7x down to a 3.2/3.3x or so.  It is virtually impossible for it to get less than 3x because of the holidays. 

 

Even so, say this thing barely crawls over 3x, the damage has already been done the first two weekends. They will clear JL out of as many screens as possible and it will be over. People won't suddenly decide TLJ sucks and chose to go see JL again. 

 

No, they'll still go see Jedi again to make themselves absolutely certain that it isn't good or whatever.  And then they might go see it again.  That's how we roll. 

[Krissykins]

I don’t think Last Jedi will have as big an impact on every film like Force Awakens did.

 

Isn't Last Jedi tracking to open $50m (20% or 6m tickets) less? 

[MCKillswitch123]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

I don’t think Last Jedi will have as big an impact on every film like Force Awakens did.

 

Isn't Last Jedi tracking to open $50m (20% or 6m tickets) less? 

Yeah, it's tracking for low 200's OW, I think. But even still, I doubt JL doesn't get wiped off when it does open. It's still a 200+ OW Star Wars movie, after all.

[Lordmandeep]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

I don’t think Last Jedi will have as big an impact on every film like Force Awakens did.

 

Isn't Last Jedi tracking to open $50m (20% or 6m tickets) less? 

Casual audience...

Let's watch movie with bad buzz (JL)

Or yeah the new star wars movie!

[RamblinRed]

TLJ is tracking for 200M+. I'm thinking anywhere from 190-210 would be a good bet. That's still going to be one of the 5 largest openings in history. It's simply a bigger movie than R1 since it involves the Skywalker's.

R1 opened to 155 on the way to 523. That's a 3.37X. TFA was 3.74

I'm sort of expecting legs in the middle of the 2 - 3.4/3.5.

Let's say it has poor legs. it's still going over 3.0 with it being the holidays. That means the min for the movie is probably 600 and realistically closer to 650. 

If its well reviewed and has strong WOM it could easily be a 750-800 movie. 

It already has more sellouts in some areas than R1 did the day of its release.

 

We'll know in a week what the reviews are like but i'm expecting them to be primarily positive. I can't imagine Lucasfilm giving Johnson a 3-picture deal unless they and Disney were really happy with the movie they saw.

The legs are only going to be chopped on TLJ if it is a bad movie. 

 

The issue with the Tuesday theory is there isn't enough of a difference in money to make any difference in the final total.

It's bigger tuesday rise gave it a 5K advantage over FB for that day. But by the next day it was 40K behind. So it gave back everything it gained on Tuesday on Wednesday. 

 

Also to get a sense of how little a couple tenths of a percent mean in the grand picture. Having a 59.5% drop rather than a 59.8% drop results in an extra 50K for the weekend. So instead of 16.65 it would have been 16.60. There's just no change in the story or trajectory. At this point it's already likely made 80% of its final gross. To get to 250 it has to perform roughly 15% better on its daily holds than it has so far. Which means instead of a likely 74-75% drop Monday it would need a 64% drop. it's just too much to ask from a data standpoint when nothing to this point in the data suggests it can do that.

 

 

[SteveJaros]

14 hours ago, Subzero said:

 

To be fair, the write down won't happen until end of 1Q 2018 at least ...so this hasn't taken into account yet ...

Some investors do wait for bad news to actually manifest in lower earnings, but many attempt to anticipate them, so if JL was truly a financial disaster as so many have claimed, it stands to reason that the disaster-level box office would manifest in share prices well before end of quarter reports are issued. 

[Lordmandeep]

Justice League is not a financial disaster by maybe losing money or not.

 

It is because it was supposed to be a major source of revenue and profits and looks to struggle to break even.

 

To put in perspective this is like Apple Releasing a new phone and it struggles to break even.

It's not the end of the world but it would be a disaster from a financial point of view. 

[SteveJaros]

14 hours ago, Barnack said:

And the share didn't raise when IT or Wonder Woman were making crazy business, a movie do not make giant conglomerate with over 30b in annual revenues stock price move on release usually, not even Star Wars Force Awaken.

That's a pretty unconvincing rationalization. Surely, if we're talking about a film that has been a Major Disaster on its own terms, and has also done Lasting Damage to the Brand Value of one of TW's major divisions, its WB film division, then that should have some negative impact on its stock price. 

Edited December 5, 2017 by SteveJaros

[Rebeccas]

TLJ is going to have a much bigger impact than Rogue One lol. jesus.

[Krissykins]

Lol Josh Gad on twitter “I did a 20 minute Frozen short that apparently ruined Coco for 40 year olds with blogs”

 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Yeah, it's tracking for low 200's OW, I think. But even still, I doubt JL doesn't get wiped off when it does open. It's still a 200+ OW Star Wars movie, after all.

 

1 hour ago, Lordmandeep said:

Casual audience...

Let's watch movie with bad buzz (JL)

Or yeah the new star wars movie!

I didn’t mention Justice League 

[RandomCat]

24 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Lol Josh Gad on twitter “I did a 20 minute Frozen short that apparently ruined Coco for 40 year olds with blogs”

 

 someone didn't go see that movie with bored kids in his audience.

[titanic2187]

I just don't get why, according to articles and announcement before, dunkirk is supposed to have IMAX re-release too, in the past weekend, 1st Dec, but why there is not box office number for dunkirk?

 

Instead, BOM show that dunkirk has gone out theater on 23-Nov, any reason why there is no box office number?

https://www.cinemablend.com/news/1727860/dunkirk-is-getting-a-holiday-re-release-in-theaters

Dunkirk Is Getting A Holiday Re-Release In Theaters

[AniNate]

58 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Lol Josh Gad on twitter “I did a 20 minute Frozen short that apparently ruined Coco for 40 year olds with blogs”

 

I suggest he shut up right there.

 

Edit: seems it's been deleted. Way ahead of me

Edited December 5, 2017 by tribefan695