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Wednesday (7/12) #s - JL - $1.12m

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30 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said:

You have to use that Analogy to every film ever made.

We y’all about Multipliers because they tell us how films are received and there’s no special cases.

Some are and it is a giant mistake to just use multiplier to look at word of mouth. All multiplier come with an *, release date, 3-4 days weekend, size of the opening, genre and so on.

 

Dark Knight only did 3.33, if you remove the OW size, the genre, being a sequel, etc... there is really nothing special here, the Boss Baby had a better multiplier.....

 

One example that make it clear of the mistake at looking at the multiplier alone, is the Hunger Games series:

 

   Total   OW   Legs  Ratio
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2  $281,723,902.00  $ 102,665,981.00  $179,057,921.00 2.74408
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1  $337,135,885.00  $ 121,897,634.00  $215,238,251.00 2.76573
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire  $424,668,047.00  $ 158,074,286.00  $266,593,761.00 2.68651
The Hunger Games  $408,010,692.00  $ 152,535,747.00  $255,474,945.00 2.67485

 

 

Would you say Part 1 & 2 had the best reception and word of mouth, they have not only the best multiplier but they did so while being farther in the franchise ? Or no, obviously legs of 266m for Catching Fire are clearly the best of the franchise and that was the entry that had the best reception, the bigger multiplier of the MJs are purely due to a smaller opening weekend and less excitement to see it right away at release weekends.

 

 

Edited by Barnack
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3 hours ago, Sam said:

WB is always so quick with the numbers while other studios take their time lol.

 

Especially Disney.

They're estimates and then they give the actuals usually later in the day than anyone.  :wacko:

 

28 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

This issue there is that starting at a point 30M less gives you an exponential difference in final result. A 30M difference with a 2.6 multiplier is over 75M in final result.

 

That and it had Thanksgiving in it second week instead of 4th which almost always boosts a films multiplier.

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1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

JL might get to $250M after all.

Very unlikely barring something unforeseen, right now its dailies would put it at about 242-243, based on how it is playing relative to FB. Probably finishes close to 240 as TLJ is likely to impact it more negatively than R1 impacted FB. 

 

Comparing it to SS and BvS for legs is not really the best comparison because they were released at different times of the year that have different typical legs. JL is in a time period where legs are naturally longer. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Barnack said:

Some are and it is a giant mistake to just use multiplier to look at word of mouth. All multiplier come with an *, release date, 3-4 days weekend, size of the opening, genre and so on.

 

Dark Knight only did 3.33, if you remove the OW size, the genre, being a sequel, etc... there is really nothing special here, the Boss Baby had a better multiplier.....

 

One example that make it clear of the mistake at looking at the multiplier alone, is the Hunger Games series:

 

   Total   OW   Legs  Ratio
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2  $281,723,902.00  $ 102,665,981.00  $179,057,921.00 2.74408
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1  $337,135,885.00  $ 121,897,634.00  $215,238,251.00 2.76573
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire  $424,668,047.00  $ 158,074,286.00  $266,593,761.00 2.68651
The Hunger Games  $408,010,692.00  $ 152,535,747.00  $255,474,945.00 2.67485

 

 

Would you say Part 1 & 2 had the best reception and word of mouth, they have not only the best multiplier but they did so while being farther in the franchise ? Or no, obviously legs of 266m for Catching Fire are clearly the best of the franchise and that was the entry that had the best reception, the bigger multiplier of the MJs are purely due to a smaller opening weekend and less excitement to see it right away at release weekends.

 

 

If we are gonna use multipier to determine Reception then let’s use them without  having our picks and chooses.

BVS had a 1.99x and many were saying how that shows it’s Reception now JL has a 2.5X+and we have to come up with all reasons as to why that is so.

The film could’ve easily fell off the map but it didn’t ,In fact the Dailies have caught up with BVS and the 4th weekend could be over its 4th weekend.

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21 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said:

If we are gonna use multipier to determine Reception then let’s use them without  having our picks and chooses.

BVS had a 1.99x and many were saying how that shows it’s Reception now JL has a 2.5X+and we have to come up with all reasons as to why that is so.

The film could’ve easily fell off the map but it didn’t ,In fact the Dailies have caught up with BVS and the 4th weekend could be over its 4th weekend.

Amen! Every JL number or possible positive outlook always comes with a spin. However, the negatives are taken at face value. Unreal!

 

Jl’s opening weekend was beyond disappointing. I wouldn’t try to spin it and state that we should not compare it to Avengers (as many have done) because it opened in a time of year that is less advantageous to out of this world openings for super hero flicks. Moreover, maybe Thor’s multiplier should also be mitigated because multipliers are bigger this time of year? No way, that movie earned every penny and there should be no spinning. Just goes to show that spinning can go both ways.

Edited by Ms Lady Hawk
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2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Most people agree tha JL was a major improvement from BvS.

 

That doesn't mean it ranks high among superhero movies this year.

 

It could have decent legs simply because expectations were so low.

Mediocre is pretty much every CBM this year Imho.

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26% drop on MOTOE. Great hold considering Tue bump was big.

2017/11/29 5 $824,297 -31% 3,152 $262   $77,221,227 20
2017/11/30 5 $851,286 +3% 3,152 $270   $78,072,513 21
2017/12/01 6 $2,029,639 +138% 3,201 $634   $80,102,152 22
2017/12/02 6 $2,970,196 +46% 3,201 $928   $83,072,348 23
2017/12/03 6 $1,767,167 -41% 3,201 $552   $84,839,515 24
2017/12/04 5 $581,538 -67% 3,201 $182   $85,421,053 25
2017/12/05 5 $887,502 +53% 3,201 $277   $86,308,555 26
2017/12/06 - $653,208 -26% 3,201 $204   $86,961,763   27
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10 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said:

If we are gonna use multipier to determine Reception then let’s use them without  having our picks and chooses.

BVS had a 1.99x and many were saying how that shows it’s Reception now JL has a 2.5X+and we have to come up with all reasons as to why that is so.

The film could’ve easily fell off the map but it didn’t ,In fact the Dailies have caught up with BVS and the 4th weekend could be over its 4th weekend.

You starting to sound like this was some kind of games, with scoring and looser and winners, etc...

 

No we will obviously not use multiplier has some end of it all without looking at context blindly.

 

I mean look at those multiplier:

 

Dark Knight: 3.33

Wonder Woman: 4

Shrek: 6.32

Passenger : 6.71

Hidden Figures: 7.407 

Blind Side: 7.52

Girl with a dragoon tattoo: 8.00

 

Is some giant multiplier simply due to an extremely small opening weekend due to the Christmas day placement for some of those release ? While some others achieved crazy multiplier because they had A+ type cinemascore reception ? Some smaller than other because of the size of the OW and not because of the word of mouth quality ? Or would you rank them like that, audience reception of those movies goes the worst for Dark Knight to the best for Dragon Tattoo ?

 

We will pick and choose, we will interpret data in the best possible ways, they are not baseball score with us trying to pick a winner.

 

BvS 1.99x was certainly a tell about it's reception (and that showed on is massive OW drop for it's sequel).

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