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CJohn

THE LAST JEDI (and Ferdinand) WEEKEND THREAD | JEDI 220m, FERDINAND 13.3m, COCO 10m (official estimates) | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SALE ON GOLD & PREMIUM ACCOUNTS IN FIRST POST

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I think I predicted 217M OW and 735M DOM so not bad. TLJ was going to decrease from TFA, it was a safe bet. I mean TFA had everything going for it (nostalgia, fantastic release date, really good audience reviews...) . 

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I don’t play the derby I just made my prediction on another forum, for fun, but I went high because everyone else picked the best numbers and I figured Fortune Favors the Bold! So I went with the highest number I could possibly see happening, $227M. I didn’t have high confidence that would happen as I set my prediction 6 months ago at $185M. Anything around the $200M tracking was as far as I cared better than expected to me. 

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If it makes about 215/216 this weekend that means the TFA to TLJ OW drop would be about the same as the drop from AUJ to TDS. If it ends up with the same multiplier as TDS it’ll be at about 757 DOM by the end of its run. I can’t see why it’s multiplier would be much worse than TDS’, let alone worse than RO’s (which puts it at 741, a good number still). 

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17 minutes ago, filmscholar said:

After seeing how "Awakens", "Rogue" and "Last Jedi" have performed in Dec, James Cameron must be licking his chops for "Avatar 2" in Dec 2020  (If were being Honest, James was the 1st Dec King with Titanic 97 and Avatar 09).  

Who wants to bet James was throwing shit around his office in a huge fit of rage when he realized he was making Disney movies and that they’ll control when these things come out and they won’t be competing with Marvel or Disney films lol

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4 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Who wants to bet James was throwing shit around his office in a huge fit of rage when he realized he was making Disney movies and that they’ll control when these things come out and they won’t be competing with Marvel or Disney films lol

 

Really doubt it. Judging by the existence of Avatarland or whatever at Disney World, it seems pretty likely that he's got a decent working relationship with them. 

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4 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Who wants to bet James was throwing shit around his office in a huge fit of rage when he realized he was making Disney movies and that they’ll control when these things come out and they won’t be competing with Marvel or Disney films lol

To be fair he pitched the original Avatar to Disney after Fox turned him down, it was only because Fox had ‘right of first refusal’ that they kept him onboard.

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Don't really understand the rhetoric that Star Wars fans are the worst, it's just got so many fans it's got a larger volume of vocal ones. Anyway what's wrong with being vocal, would you rather a glib facsimile of our world, a world with no passion?

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13 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Don't really understand the rhetoric that Star Wars fans are the worst, it's just got so many fans it's got a larger volume of vocal ones. Anyway what's wrong with being vocal, would you rather a glib facsimile of our world, a world with no passion?

When I went to Star Wars Celebration, around half the people I talked to were fun and just happy to be there, the other half were self-important, entitled ('the Rogue One trailer didn't show me the thing I wanted to see - fuck it' sort of thing) and rude - which is generally my impression of online Star Wars fans.

 

The way a few people spoke and acted around Carrie Fisher when we were in line to meet her made my skin crawl.

Edited by ddddeeee
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Why must those of us who didn't like it be considered cynical and irrational fanboys?  Are we just supposed to love something because we are told to?  I'm a huge Star Wars fan and I have defended the prequels for 18 years.  No one said anyone was irrational when they disliked the prequels and now that there is a Star Wars film that has pissed off some of its fans, people are calling us irrational fanboys?  That's really unfair.

 

I didn't like the film for many reasons, me being an irrational fanboy isn't one of them.  This didn't feel like the Star Wars I knew and it certainly wasn't the Star Wars I wanted it to be.  That's why I didn't care for it.

 

Having said all that, yes there will always be detractors from every massive franchise film and ultimately I don't think it's going to affect the film all that much.  If this hits 210 million for the weekend, that's a small 15% drop from TFA and that is quite incredible.  There are plenty of people who really loved the film and the bold plot pieces so I'm sure WOM is going to be fine and this being the Christmas season, the film will have a minimum of a 3.3X so 700 looks like it will happen.  And the multiplier might be much higher.  

 

I'm glad that lots of people are enjoying it.  This is one of my favourite film series so I want it to do well regardless of how I feel about this film.  I do hope JJ does a few things differently in E9 but that's just me.  But please, don't label those of us who didn't like it as irrational fanboys.  I know what I like and I know what I want out of a SW film and this one didn't deliver to my expectations.  I hardly think that makes me irrational.  

 

With a 55 million Friday, even a mild 10% increase gives it 60 million.  And I think it will have a soft Sunday drop because there are lots of people who can't get in for the first two days.  So if I had to guess I'd say it will do something like, 100, 60, 51 for about 211 million.  The numbers for SW are truly insane.  Two films are likely going to break the 200 million opening weekend mark.  For any film to do this, especially in the streaming, downloading, Apple TV, Android box world that we live i, is astonishing.  It's truly the kind of film you need to see on the big screen.  This being Disney might piss people off but they are clearly doing something right with their big budget tent-poles.    

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4 hours ago, the beast said:

that 2.1m for coco on friday is only a 96% increase!

Coco have muted friday bumps so far, i'm kinda expected this increase [but also hope real numbers to be $ 300 - 400k higher]

But we probably should expect a really small drop on sunday to compensate [and a good recovery in the next days]

 

That $ 8.7M [maybe a little more] is far better than the $ 7M projection by Variety and basically locked $ 200M, i take that

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