THE LAST JEDI (and Ferdinand) WEEKEND THREAD | JEDI 220m, FERDINAND 13.3m, COCO 10m (official estimates) | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SALE ON GOLD & PREMIUM ACCOUNTS IN FIRST POST

[BoilingHotCoffee]

If it follows TFA from Friday-Sun

 

Thu - $45M

Fri - $60.2

Sat - $66M

Sun - $58.5M

 

Weekend - $229.7M

 

Edited December 16, 2017 by BoilingHotCoffee

[a2k]

Knew those 7-8 early weekend projections for COCO didn't make sense despite of the competition.

 

Both Moana and Tangled jumped about 72.5-73.5% on this Sat.

 

                     TANGLED               MOANA

Fri	-	$2,182,299 +116.8% / -36.2% $121,325,231 / 24	$3,055,917 +135.3% / -27.3% $153,250,662 / 24
Sat	-	$3,786,756 +73.5% / -43.4% $125,111,987 / 25	$5,271,563 +72.5% / -39.6% $158,522,225 / 25
Sun	-	$2,806,289 -25.9% / -33.5% $127,918,276 / 26	$4,398,752 -16.6% / -21.5% $162,920,977 / 26

 

Using a stronger than Moana's Sunday for COCO gives it 10+ potentially:

 

2.4 + 4.15 (+73%) + 3.55 (-14.5%) = 10.1

 

Even otherwise the weekend should not go below 9-9.5.

 

 

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, BoilingHotCoffee said:

If it follows TFA from Friday-Sun

 

Thu - $45M

Fri - $60.2

Sat - $66M

Sun - $58.5M

 

Weekend - $229.7M

 

That would be great. I really hope it can reach that high.

[CJohn]

105M OD fills my heart with joy.

[ThomasNicole]

8 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Knew those 7-8 early weekend projections for COCO didn't make sense despite of the competition.

 

Both Moana and Tangled jumped about 72.5-73.5% on this Sat.

 

                     TANGLED               MOANA

Fri	-	$2,182,299 +116.8% / -36.2% $121,325,231 / 24	$3,055,917 +135.3% / -27.3% $153,250,662 / 24
Sat	-	$3,786,756 +73.5% / -43.4% $125,111,987 / 25	$5,271,563 +72.5% / -39.6% $158,522,225 / 25
Sun	-	$2,806,289 -25.9% / -33.5% $127,918,276 / 26	$4,398,752 -16.6% / -21.5% $162,920,977 / 26

 

Using a stronger than Moana's Sunday for COCO gives it 10+ potentially:

 

2.4 + 4.15 (+73%) + 3.55 (-14.5%) = 10.1

 

Even otherwise the weekend should not go below 9-9.5.

 

 

$ 200M is locked, that's everything i want

 

I totally can see Coco having a -7% on sunday, it's getting consistently much better sunday drops than tangled / moana or even Frozen

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

105M OD fills my heart with joy.

But weren't you boycotting Disney and Trashmerica?  

[baumer]

3 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

$ 200M is locked, that's everything i want

 

I totally can see Coco having a -7% on sunday, it's getting consistently much better sunday drops than tangled / moana or even Frozen

 

Why would it drop 7% on Sunday?  That makes no sense.  

[cookie]

Sounds like it could be an IM3 situation where Last Jedi's more backloaded on OW. Almost equaling Force Awakens' Friday after much lower previews is excellent.

Edited December 16, 2017 by cookie

[filmscholar]

1 hour ago, Rth Ragnarok said:

105

[JonathanLB]

6 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

Thanks for this post.  

 

I'm 46 in two weeks so my love of sW goes back almost 40 years and I can honestly say TFA is on par with the originals, imo.  So I understand where your GF is coming from.  And I hope I can get to where you are now at with TFA.  I'll let you know how it goes tomorrow. 

For sure, I know what you mean. I feel like it’s only a matter of time for me before that happens ha ha and it’s going to suck. I felt like TFA was that movie, the guys on TFN forums still give me crap about this two years later. “Be sure to get enough sleep this time Bowen, we don’t need a repeat of your TFA reaction.” Gee thanks guys. Lol. It’s like you said, you don’t go into the movie wanting to dislike it or something. You go in pumped and wanting to love it. 

 

Its so funny we can be sitting there watching the same movie with different reactions huh? Like my girlfriend said despite a lot of parts she did enjoy about TLJ, she kept thinking all movie “I am not loving this.” I kept thinking every 10 minutes “ok so far I am really loving this, please keep it up.” Mainly because a friend of mine said I would hate it and made some big deal that it was “super political” and I would hate it. I still can’t tell what he means by that, like I have a few guesses but they’re spoilers, anyway you see what you want in a fantasy movie. I heard Palpatine was George W. in the prequels and that made me laugh not because I don’t think W is that evil, but because poor W was absolutely nowhere near smart enough to plot a rise to power like Palpatine I’m sorry. Dude barely had a grasp of basic English let alone an evil mastermind hahaha.

[Pypa94]

12 minutes ago, BoilingHotCoffee said:

If it follows TFA from Friday-Sun

 

Thu - $45M

Fri - $60.2

Sat - $66M

Sun - $58.5M

 

Weekend - $229.7M

 

So TLJ OW over JL after this weekend still possible

[ThomasNicole]

10 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

Why would it drop 7% on Sunday?  That makes no sense.  

Moana drop 16% last year and Coco is having much better sunday drops than Moana since week 1, so i think maybe it could happen

[But a -14% is nothing bad too, and also could happen]

[EmpireCity]

I'm glad that everyone finally came to their senses regarding the audience score and realize now that was trolls at work.  Nice to see everyone trusting the actual data and seeing the numbers reflect that  

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

$ 200M is locked, that's everything i want

 

I totally can see Coco having a -7% on sunday, it's getting consistently much better sunday drops than tangled / moana or even Frozen

In-fact can't see sub-220:

- Tangled had an 8.8 weekend after a 2.2 Friday. Coco's Friday is 2.4 so it should do 9-9.5 if not more.

- Tangled added 72 more to it's cume after an 8.8 weekend.

- Coco should add at least 70 after a 9-9.5 weekend for 150+70 = 220. Total floor IMO.

[Elessar]

2 minutes ago, BoilingHotCoffee said:

If it follows TFA from Friday-Sun

 

Thu - $45M

Fri - $60.2

Sat - $66.2M

Sun - $58.7M

 

Weekend - $230.1M

I think this is a better way of doing it than disregarding the THU PREVIEWS / OD breakdown. However, SUN will probably be weaker since TFA was further in December.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

I'm glad that everyone finally came to their senses regarding the audience score and realize now that was trolls at work.  Nice to see everyone trusting the actual data and seeing the numbers reflect that  

Still calling Star Wars fans trolls are we? What we're seeing is a difference between GA and internet fans.

[Lordmandeep]

 

 

I see 105

66 +10%

53 -20%

 

 

224 million weekends.

 

 

 

Edited December 16, 2017 by Lordmandeep

[baumer]

3 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Moana drop 16% last year and Coco is having much better sunday drops than Moana since week 1, so i think maybe it could happen

[But a -14% is nothing bad too, and also could happen]

 

Yes, but 7% drop on a Sunday in the middle of December without any holidays to help it out just doesn't seem realistic.

[ThomasNicole]

9 minutes ago, a2knet said:

In-fact can't see sub-220:

- Tangled had an 8.8 weekend after a 2.2 Friday. Coco's Friday is 2.4 so it should do 9-9.5 if not more.

- Tangled added 72 more to it's cume after an 8.8 weekend.

- Coco should add at least 70 after a 9-9.5 weekend for 150+70 = 220. Total floor IMO.

Yeah, i'm thinking $ 220M finish too [and around $ 800M worldwide]

 

Really happy for Pixar and excited to see Coco, it will be release here in January

[baumer]

3 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Still calling Star Wars fans trolls are we? What we're seeing is a difference between GA and internet fans.

 

Just let it go.  Not worth arguing over.