Tuesday Numbers (Dec 26): TLJ 27.7, Jumanji: 17.1, PP3 7.4, TGS 5.1 (actuals/estimates)

[Kramerica1975]

 

 

 

Who would have expected this a couple of weeks ago?

A comedy sequel in 2017, there was a good chance it would fail.

Happy for the film, I liked it a lot.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 27, 2017 by Kramerica1975

[RandomCat]

4 minutes ago, The Last Panda said:

So, has he come back to destroy our complacent appraisals?

Certainly never seen a man so involved with his own fiction that every time he posts it's weirder, and weirder. And I thought Steve Jaros was a weird poster.

[George Parr]

24 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

The problem here is that people continue saying that TLJ was never supposed to compete with TFa when it actually did so OW. What was even the drop? Less than 10%?

That's the norm. If there is one thing a sequel has a chance of competing with, it is generally the opening. That doesn't mean it can follow that up for the rest of the run.

 

Lost World beat Jurassic Park's opening 72m to 47m, but lost when it comes to the total 229m to 357m. Age of Ultron was somewhat close the The Avengers when it came to the opening (191m to 207m) but was much further away for the total (459m to 623m).

 

Other examples:

Dark Knight to Dark Knight Rises: OW 158m -> 160m ; total: 533 -> 448m

Spiderman 1,2 and 3: OW 115m -> 88m (a bit misleading due to Thursday start) -> 151m ; total: 404m -> 377m -> 337m

POTC 2 and 3: OW 136m -> 115m (identical 4-day total though) ; total: 423 -> 309m

Iron Man 1 and 2: OW 99m -> 128m ; total: 318m -> 312m

 

The more fanboy-driven a movie is, the better its chance to keep the openings big, even if the total falls. After all, fans will rush out to see the latest addition to the franchise, so you can mostly count on not losing them for the next opening either. The odds of having angered the fanbase to the extend that a large part won't show up for the next opening, while at the same time having pleased the general audience to the extend that they come back, thus hurting the opening more than the legs, are rather slim after all.

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, Kramerica1975 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Incoming Daddy’s Home 3!  It’s like Daddy’s Home 2, only this time the kid’s a teenager and comes back home with a new baby!

[JB33]

On a positive note, as many have already mentioned, we still have next weekend and all of next week foe the film to make up for some of the disappointing jumps - I've realized that it's not the drops that have been disappointing, it's some of the jumps. The calendar worked against TLJ in a way but calendar always evens out as well. However, I'm not expecting an increase next weekend as some were suggesting, or even a flat gross. Anything above a light drop is gravy.

[Brainbug]

Just now, George Parr said:

That's the norm. If there is one thing a sequel has a chance of competing with, it is generally the opening. That doesn't mean it can follow that up for the rest of the run.

 

Lost World beat Jurassic Park's opening 72m to 47m, but lost when it comes to the total 229m to 357m. Age of Ultron was somewhat close the The Avengers when it came to the opening (191m to 207m) but was much further away for the total (459m to 623m).

 

Other examples:

Dark Knight to Dark Knight Rises: OW 158m -> 160m ; total: 533 -> 448m

Spiderman 1,2 and 3: OW 115m -> 88m (a bit misleading due to Thursday start) -> 151m ; total: 404m -> 377m -> 337m

POTC 2 and 3: OW 136m -> 115m (identical 4-day total though) ; total: 423 -> 309m

Iron Man 1 and 2: OW 99m -> 128m ; total: 318m -> 312m

 

The more fanboy-driven a movie is, the better its chance to keep the openings big, even if the total falls. After all, fans will rush out to see the latest addition to the franchise, so you can mostly count on not losing them for the next opening either. The odds of having angered the fanbase to the extend that a large part won't show up for the next opening, while at the same time having pleased the general audience to the extend that they come back, thus hurting the opening more than the legs, are rather slim after all.

 

Add to that big franchise movies are becoming more and more frontloaded, Thursday previews are acting like a full extra day since years.

[Brainbug]

Just now, JB33 said:

On a positive note, as many have already mentioned, we still have next weekend and all of next week foe the film to make up for some of the disappointing jumps - I've realized that it's not the drops that have been disappointing, it's some of the jumps. The calendar worked against TLJ in a way but calendar always evens out as well. However, I'm not expecting an increase next weekend as some were suggesting, or even a flat gross. Anything above a light drop is gravy.

 

I expect a 15-25% drop. Its numbers are too high to stay flat or increase imo. But what some people are underestimating here i think is that TLJ's 3rd week will also have a boost from holidays like @Christmas baumer pointed out i think in another thread.

[REC]

4 minutes ago, George Parr said:

That's the norm. If there is one thing a sequel has a chance of competing with, it is generally the opening. That doesn't mean it can follow that up for the rest of the run.

 

Lost World beat Jurassic Park's opening 72m to 47m, but lost when it comes to the total 229m to 357m. Age of Ultron was somewhat close the The Avengers when it came to the opening (191m to 207m) but was much further away for the total (459m to 623m).

 

Other examples:

Dark Knight to Dark Knight Rises: OW 158m -> 160m ; total: 533 -> 448m

Spiderman 1,2 and 3: OW 115m -> 88m (a bit misleading due to Thursday start) -> 151m ; total: 404m -> 377m -> 337m

POTC 2 and 3: OW 136m -> 115m (identical 4-day total though) ; total: 423 -> 309m

Iron Man 1 and 2: OW 99m -> 128m ; total: 318m -> 312m

 

The more fanboy-driven a movie is, the better its chance to keep the openings big, even if the total falls. After all, fans will rush out to see the latest addition to the franchise, so you can mostly count on not losing them for the next opening either. The odds of having angered the fanbase to the extend that a large part won't show up for the next opening, while at the same time having pleased the general audience to the extend that they come back, thus hurting the opening more than the legs, are rather slim after all.

Makes the Thor series a real anomaly doesn't it?  Considering how each new movie grew the earnings by quite a bit.

[JB33]

1 minute ago, REC said:

Makes the Thor series a real anomaly doesn't it?  Considering how each new movie grew the earnings by quite a bit.

I attribute that to Thor being an unknown quantity when the first film was released, with the character only becoming more popular as the MCU went on.

[Brainbug]

Just now, REC said:

Makes the Thor series a real anomaly doesn't it?  Considering how each new movie grew the earnings by quite a bit.

 

The MCU i think is its own thing. The bad taste from Thor 2 got washed away by the vastly better Marvel Films that followed (CA:WS, GOTG,) and the marketing for Thor was top-notch. Some of the best trailers of all time, showcasing the fun nature of the film unlike its dull predecessor. The two Marvel Films that came before it this year were also very-well liked by audiences, Marvel Studios just stands for delivering what audiences want these days.

[REC]

3 minutes ago, JB33 said:

I attribute that to Thor being an unknown quantity when the first film was released, with the character only becoming more popular as the MCU went on.

Each new movie was essentially a soft reboot of the character and world.  They basically adjusted the quality upwards as it went along, fine tuning it to give the GA more of what they wanted.  I don't think that can be discounted.

Edited December 27, 2017 by REC

[Lordmandeep]

I think you are all forgetting that on opening weekend.

 

TLJ was less backloaded then TFA. 

[George Parr]

4 minutes ago, REC said:

Makes the Thor series a real anomaly doesn't it?  Considering how each new movie grew the earnings by quite a bit.

Well, there are some other examples of rising movies, and some of the franchises I mentioned already rose from part 1 to 2, both in terms of openings and totals, but I was talking more about franchises that had fully developed and reached their peak. It doesn't apply so much to franchises that are a bit smaller in size. Something like Thor saw more of a gradual increase, maybe it has reached its peak now, maybe it can still grow a bit, but it is definately different from something that saw a huge jump with one of the movies (e.g. Dark Knight or POTC).

 

It's once you reach huge openings and giant totals that it is getting tough to keep the pace. Or if the franchise is rather limited in what it could possibly reach (Jason Bourne, National Treasure, Night at the Museum, that kind of stuff).

[Premium George]

10 minutes ago, REC said:

Makes the Thor series a real anomaly doesn't it?  Considering how each new movie grew the earnings by quite a bit.

All examples were of sequels to mega ultra blockbuster. I don't think any thor film or any mcu movie other than avengers fit in that category.

[stripe]

TLJ should reach around 550M once Holidays are over, with 55-60M 3rd weekend (65-70M 4day). Already over Rogue One total. That's not that bad.

 

Add in around 90-100M for the rest of its run. 640-650M DOM

 

[Nova]

I'm not surprised by these numbers. It was 10 AM yesterday and I couldn't find a ticket for the movies all day and all night at any of the 4 theaters that I go to. I don't remember the last time that's happened. 

[RandomCat]

throwing darts at the dart board of guessing.

22M for Wednesday.

[DealWithIt]

1 hour ago, Lordmandeep said:

Controversial but based on how things are headed, think the WOM and buzz around the film likely will take off around 50-100 million of the gross. 

 

Think if it was as liked TFA likely be flirting with 800 million. 

 

It was never going to make $800 million. Why is this shit still being said? And, once again, word of mouth is good. 

 

There is no universe in which the colossal amount of cash it’s already made is in any way, shape or form a disappointment. The absolute desperation from Luke fanboys to try and say otherwise is increasingly hilarious. 

[DealWithIt]

8 hours ago, Fancyarcher said:

Good for Jedi that it increased.

Regardless of the outcome it's exciting to follow. It's a real roller coaster of a box office run.

It’s more just mind numbingly stupid right now. Fanboys hurt the movie didn’t line up with the theories they plucked from nowhere desperate for this to be a disappointment at the box office is already old and tired. 

[Brainbug]

7 minutes ago, stripe said:

TLJ should reach around 550M once Holidays are over, with 55-60M 3rd weekend (65-70M 4day). Already over Rogue One total. That's not that bad.

 

Add in around 90-100M for the rest of its run. 640-650M DOM

 

 

I have hopes, that the wasteland with the name January could help boost TLJ's late legs a bit. Apart from Jumanji, theres nothing else for action fans and 4-quadrant appeal at the movies apart from those 2 till February.