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Porthos

Tuesday Numbers (Dec 26): TLJ 27.7, Jumanji: 17.1, PP3 7.4, TGS 5.1 (actuals/estimates)

By Porthos, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by RthDeadWov,

22 would be about right 
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

Does anyone else on mobile see all these ads all over the page? If I buy a account do they go away?

Yes, even at the lowest account (Copper $5/month | $50/year), those ads go away:

 

Quote

About Copper Account

 

Ad-Free

75 likes/day

Ability to send Private Chats to members in Chat Room

 

Please note that purchasing this account doesn't exempt you from having to follow the rules and that you can still get warned/suspended/banned.

As for the ads... Yes, they were most than a little prevalent on my iPad Mini. 

 

Yes... I think that's the way I shall put it. :ph34r:

Edited by Porthos
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The Fast and the Furiosa Sleeper Hit

The Fast and the Furiosa

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3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Yes, even at the lowest account (Copper $5/month | $50/year), those ads go away:

 

As for the ads... Yes, they were most than a little prevalent on my iPad Mini. 

 

Yes... I think that's the way I shall put it. :ph34r:

This reminds me...my Derby champion privileges are gonna expire 😭

Edited by The Fast and the Furiosa
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JonathanLB Box Office Gold

JonathanLB

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, lancelot123 said:

Playing around with Excel by comparing R1 to TLJ. These are the predictions that I'm getting.

 

Wed 23.2m

Thur 18.1m

 

I don't trust these, but I'll include them.

Fri 19.5m

Sat 17.0m

Sun 16.7m

Mon 17.0m

I don’t think there’s any reason to believe Thursday falls much from Wednesday but that Wed is too high IMO. It’s not going to be that high. Thursday number may be right.

 

But why would the movie decrease fairly substantially on Saturday?! That makes no sense hahaha. Also Sunday looks ok to me numerically but totally wrong by drop. It’ll fall 30-40% from Saturday because of NYE. 

Edited by JonathanLB
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Lancelot Gold Sleeper Hit

Lancelot Gold

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9 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

I don’t think there’s any reason to believe Thursday falls much from Wednesday but that Wed is too high IMO. It’s not going to be that high. Thursday number may be right.

 

But why would the movie decrease fairly substantially on Saturday?! That makes no sense hahaha. Also Sunday looks ok to me numerically but totally wrong by drop. It’ll fall 30-40% from Saturday because of NYE. 

I think that it's showing Saturday drop because R1 did since it was NYE.

 

Also, forgot to add that it's currently predicting 664m for its final total. I like that prediction since it preserves the above 3.0x multiplier.

Edited by lancelot123
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AndyLL Summer Tentpole

AndyLL

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3 minutes ago, TheForceuser707 said:

Those were estimates. The actuals for TFA were lower.

 

1 minute ago, JonathanLB said:

TFA? Is it back in theaters?!

 

Poor TLJ WOM is taking away revenue from TFA now

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted

Some forecasting:

 

TLJ:

 

Remainder of this week: 38.8M (462.2M Total)

Dec 29: 68M (43.8M weekdays, 574M Total)

Jan 5: 39.3M (8.6M weekdays, 621.9M Total)

Jan 12: 13.6M (6.4M weekdays, 641.9M Total)

Jan 19: 6.9M (2.1M weekdays, 650.9M Total)

Jan 26: 4.1M (1.3M weekdays, 656.3M Total)

Feb 2: 2.3M (700k weekdays, 659.3M Total)

Feb 9: 1.4M (400k weekdays, 661.1M Total)

Final Total: 665M (3.02x)

 

@MovieMan89 I think your sub 3.1-3.15x prediction is going to happen. Getting the #3 spot domestically looks safe, but I'm not feeling anything beyond that right now.

 

Jumanji:

Remainder of this week: 24M (113.1M Total)

Dec 29: 50.8M (35.9M weekdays, 199.8M Total)

Jan 5: 36.7M (7.3M weekdays, 243.8M Total)

Jan 12: 17.7M (7.9M weekdays, 269.4M Total)

Jan 19: 10M (3.3M weekdays, 282.7M Total)

Jan 26: 6.7M (2.2M weekdays, 291.6M Total)

Feb 2: 4.8M (1.3M weekdays, 297.7M Total)

Feb 9: 3M (700k weekdays, 301.4M Total)

Feb 16: 1.5M (400k weekdays, 303.3M Total)

Final Total: 307M (5.79x from 5 day)

 

This is going to be like Sing/Rogue One and overtake TLJ sooner than you think, only this time MUCH sooner. As we learned with Get Out and Wonder Woman this year, never think something is impossible with a WOM monster. If my 307M prediction comes true, this will have sold more admissions than Thor: Ragnarok; that's INSANE to think about!

 

PP3:

Remainder of this week: 9.3M (43.2M Total)

Dec 29: 18.8M (7.6M weekdays, 69.6M Total)
Jan 5: 6.5M (1.7M weekdays, 77.8M Total)

Jan 12: 2.7M (1.2M weekdays, 81.7M Total)

Jan 19: 1.4M (500k weekdays, 83.6M Total)

Final Total: 86M (4.32x)

 

So yeah, not as bad as we initially thought, but this is still a big drop from the second.

 

Showman:

 

Remainder of this week: 8M (32.1M Total)

Dec 29: 16.8M (7.6M weekdays, 56.5M Total)

Jan 5: 7.3M (1.8M weekdays, 65.6M Total)

Jan 12: 4.5M (1.8M weekdays, 71.9M Total)

Jan 19: 3M (1M weekdays, 75.9M Total)

Final Total: 82M (6.12x from 3 day)

 

I was kind of lazy on this one, but it's coming in for a healthy increase this weekend which will propel it close to the budget as its final total domestically.

 

Money:

Remainder of this week: (7M Total)

Dec 29: 5.6M (3.9M weekdays, 16.5M Total)

Jan 5: 4M (1.8M weekdays, 22.3M Total)

Jan 12: 2.3M (1.2M weekdays, 25.8M Total)

Jan 19: 1M (500k weekdays, 27.3M Total)

Final Total: 29M

 

This is going to end up as a loss for Sony, but I can't really blame them considering they had very little time to market this with the reshoots. At least Plummer is looking good for an Oscar nom. 

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hw64 Sleeper Hit

hw64

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9 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

But why would the movie decrease fairly substantially on Saturday?! That makes no sense hahaha.

Because Rogue One's third Saturday was New Year's Eve, and he hasn't changed his model to reflect that the same is not true of TLJ.

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TheForceuser707 Cult Classic

TheForceuser707

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, MyMovieCanBeatUpYourMovie said:

Right.  OW is a testament to the interest and how well the marketing team did its job.

 

Every day after that tells us about the film itself and how audiences are responding to it.  

 

If this was just about IX, it really wouldn't be that interesting, since Disney already made the move they probably would have considered anyway if they were in any way worried -- rehiring Abrams.

 

But the fact that they just hired Johnson to direct a new trilogy (and gave him carte blanche to come up with the story) makes how audiences react (positively or negatively) to what he did extremely interesting.  Do they stay the course or not?

Thoughtful comments.

 

Let's just add also: the final gross for TLJ will NOT be excellent by any means.

 

If it's true the production, marketing and distribution costs for this movie were $800M (before any damage limitation strategies were in play), even with today's updated numbers the movie hasn't broken even yet.

 

What is it now? $840M worldwide or something?

 

Disney gets 65% of the domestic take and even less of the overseas money.

 

They might take a loss on this movie.

 

It wouldn't at all surprise me if this movie TLJ fails to pass all of the Transformers movies on the worldwide box office chart, the highest of which is at number 15.

 

Is this "excellent" by any stretch of the imagination?

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NoLegMan Indie Sensation

NoLegMan

Posted
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2 minutes ago, TheForceuser707 said:

Thoughtful comments.

 

Let's just add also: the final gross for TLJ will NOT be excellent by any means.

 

If it's true the production, marketing and distribution costs for this movie were $800M (before any damage limitation strategies were in play), even with today's updated numbers the movie has broken even yet.

 

What is it now? $840M worldwide or something?

 

Disney gets 65% of the domestic take and even less of the overseas money.

 

They might take a loss on this movie.

 

It wouldn't at all surprise me if this movie TLJ fails to pass all of the Transformers movies on the worldwide box office chart, the highest of which is at number 15.

 

Is this "excellent" by any stretch of the imagination?

I'm not sure how you are getting to them taking a loss, it's at 844 Million atm based on what we know they are in the black already.

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Lancelot Gold Sleeper Hit

Lancelot Gold

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, TheForceuser707 said:

It wouldn't at all surprise me if this movie TLJ fails to pass all of the Transformers movies on the worldwide box office chart, the highest of which is at number 15.

 

Is this "excellent" by any stretch of the imagination?

 

lolwut? TLJ is going to breeze into the top 10 and has a good shot at 4th and 5th 8th

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smokeylarue Rumored Project

smokeylarue

Posted
Posted

$800M? A

4 minutes ago, TheForceuser707 said:

Thoughtful comments.

 

Let's just add also: the final gross for TLJ will NOT be excellent by any means.

 

If it's true the production, marketing and distribution costs for this movie were $800M (before any damage limitation strategies were in play), even with today's updated numbers the movie has broken even yet.

 

What is it now? $840M worldwide or something?

 

Disney gets 65% of the domestic take and even less of the overseas money.

 

They might take a loss on this movie.

 

It wouldn't at all surprise me if this movie TLJ fails to pass all of the Transformers movies on the worldwide box office chart, the highest of which is at number 15.

 

Is this "excellent" by any stretch of the imagination?

$800M cost? Won't pass Transformers: Dark of the Moon which is at $1.123 billion worldwide? Might take a loss? Are you insane?

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