Premium George Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, EmpireCity said: Adjusted grosses only work on a very basic level and you can't extrapolate them out over time. For example, something like Gone With the Wind gets trotted out over and over and it is a great movie and undoubtedly one of the most popular movies of all time, but the reality is it was released at a time when there were very limited entertainment options. Anything with mass appeal was going to put up absurd numbers because there wasn't much else grab those entertainment dollars. I hate when it gets trotted out for a lot of movies as a way to diminish newer movies. Well, yeah, that older movie did way more adjusted but a lot of it had to do with having no television and only a couple of radio stations to listen to. There wasn't 500+ cable channels, Netflix, Hulu, YouTube, Vudu, video games, online games, the internet, enhanced local entertainment, endless sporting events and about 50 other entertainment options to compete with. That movie theater also had often times the only air conditioning in the entire city on a hot summer day. But based on sony leaks, your $200m dom = $800m oS is not right either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walt Disney Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Be careful when analyzing multipliers for December and comparing them to TLJ. The average multiplier is big in December, but the average opening is small. We really only have 2 massive December openers to compare TLJ to, and both are star Wars movies: TFA and RO (and TLJ opened higher than RO). We are really in new territory with December big openings and multipliers here. A movie will either open big and have okay legs or open okay and have amazing legs. Very rarely does a movie do both (but it does happen and most of us can probably name most of those exceptions to the rule). I still agree with everyone that the wom is mixed and that this movie could have done even better if different choices were made when making the movie. But, that has more to do with potential, as opposed to realistic expectations. TLJ potentially could have squeezed out even more money, but realistically, it might very well be performing to what a blockbuster like this, with this opening, should be expected to gross. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 I dont see 700 happening unless it stays flat this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomCat Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 13 minutes ago, grey ghost said: Avatar is OS king. Star Wars is DOM king. Avatar was king of everywhere until TFA. The king is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TommyA10 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 28 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said: How many Star Wars films have opened in December, grossed 150 million or more and had a 3.3 multiplier? Every one of them. Sure, but you gotta admit there’s quite a difference between a 150m and 220m opening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 23 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said: I think SW 9 can easily "recover" and get back to 800 million. They just need to get some more "fan service" in the next trailer and hint at some of it in the plot and I think it will do well enough to get there. I think they should be more honest in marketing. I was super pumped about TLJ cause it seemed to be a lot about the Force and less about Resistance. turns out, the movie was the opposite and the Resistance part was even more boring and stupid than I feared. And it's the reason why I saw TLJ only 2 times so far instead of 5 times that I saw TFA in the same period. I obsessively watched TFA. I can't bring myself to see TLJ again because of that awful slo-o-o--o-ow "ticking clock" plot that makes up for over 50% of the movie and that isn't even hinted at in the trailer (thematically, they made it look like the focus was on Rey, Luke and Kylo which happens to be the part of the movie that really works and is the highlight). Oh, and new characters wer bland and useless, no wonder they weren't in the trailer and most of spots either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said: To be fair, that doesn't really qualify as it opened on the 12th. The films I'm looking at are ones that opened the week before Christmas. Okay I thought you meant December Openers in general and the Third Narnia film opened on the 10th;) so that film also didn't opened in the week before Christmas, but even ignoring those, that would be the other December opener (Top 200) to miss 3x: The Golden Compass (25.8 / 70.1 => 2.72 x; opened on the 7th) Exodus: Gods and Kings (24.1 / 65 => 2.7x, opened also on the 12th) Star Trek: Nemesis (18.5 / 43.3 => 2.34x, opened on the 13th) Krampus (16.3 / 42.7 => 2.62x opened on the 4th) Honey ( 12.9 / 30.3 => 2.35x, opened on the 5th) Aeon Flux (12.7 / 25.9 => 2.04x, opened on the 2nd) In the Heart of the Sea (11.1 / 25 => 2.25, opened on the 11th) Analyze That (11 / 32.1 => 2.92x, opened on the 6th) Psycho (10 / 21.5 => 1.15x, opened on the 4th) POINT BREAK (9.8 / 28.8 => 2.94 x, opened on 25th of 2015, so X-Mas day and Boxing Day were OD/first Friday and Saturday) Brothers (9.5 / 28.5 => 2.995866 ~3x, opened on the 4th) So just 12 of the Top 200 OW (06%) missed the 3x multiplier and of those just one! opened later than the 13th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walt Disney Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 (edited) 18 minutes ago, EmpireCity said: Adjusted grosses only work on a very basic level and you can't extrapolate them out over time. For example, something like Gone With the Wind gets trotted out over and over and it is a great movie and undoubtedly one of the most popular movies of all time, but the reality is it was released at a time when there were very limited entertainment options. Anything with mass appeal was going to put up absurd numbers because there wasn't much else grab those entertainment dollars. I hate when it gets trotted out for a lot of movies as a way to diminish newer movies. Well, yeah, that older movie did way more adjusted but a lot of it had to do with having no television and only a couple of radio stations to listen to. There wasn't 500+ cable channels, Netflix, Hulu, YouTube, Vudu, video games, online games, the internet, enhanced local entertainment, endless sporting events and about 50 other entertainment options to compete with. That movie theater also had often times the only air conditioning in the entire city on a hot summer day. I have to disagree with this because if you look at the top 200 domestic grossing movies (adjusted for inflation), it is very slanted towards modern blockbusters. There are only 3 movies in the top 200 from the 1920's and 1930's combined. There are currently 18 movies from this decade and 39 movies from the previous decade. If it was so much easier for films to have big adjusted grosses back when there were fewer entertainment options, then we would see the list mostly dominated by older films, which isn't the case. Once we get a big enough sample size (which is why I always use the top 200), we see modern movies doing extremely well when compared to older films. I always use adjusted for inflation numbers for my comparisons because I think it gives the best gauge of all-time popularity and it is the best way to compare movies from different years. Edited December 28, 2017 by Walt Disney Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 26 minutes ago, EmpireCity said: If certain people are going to talk about Avatar over and over, then at least put it in full context when talking about those numbers and acknowledge that those international numbers count for about 25% of what the domestic numbers do. The nearly $200m in domestic extra for The Force Awakens translates out to about $800m in international gross. That's news to me. It has been commonly accepted that studios get like 60% of the DOM gross and like 40% on average of the OS gross. Those are of course rough figures. So not nearly as high a discrepancy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 30 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said: I like your SW enthusiasm and I like the way you post, but with all due respect, I say this in a non confrontational way, I think you are moving the goal posts here. The fact is, TFA did have a 3.78 multiplier. The fact is the numbers have been soft so far. The fact is it had a horrible increase on Christmas Day when almost every other film in the top ten had almost a 100% increase. The fact is there is a very loud group of people who were disappointed in the film and I think we have enough data to support the notion that if the film was better received it would be doing better overall at this point. What we don't have is any real clue as to where it will end up when all is said and done. I admit that if it gets to 700, then the WOM is fine. And I hope it does because I love SW on a whole. The first week of January is going to be the deciding factor in where it ends up. You’re not wrong, but my goalposts with Star Wars are always high. I always expect a lot more than other people. TFA was the first time ever even I underestimated SW. I was at $575M on Rogue One, not a bad prediction but it was high. Does that mean I moved the goalposts later to be happy with the run? I mean, not really, because what I really want out of each film is #1 for the year. That’s my highest true expectation. I know Solo won’t get there by a long shot so I have to set my bar lower but with Last Jedi I did believe all of the past 2 years until irrational exuberance before release that it would make $685M total. If it gets fairly close to that or beats Titanic to take 3rd it’s a fantastic run. Do I wish it could have 3.5x legs? Well yeah for sure. But in the end what happened is it opened way bigger than I had initially expected and will finish around the same total I expected. The latter is the more important of the two. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TommyA10 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 31 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said: I think SW 9 can easily "recover" and get back to 800 million. They just need to get some more "fan service" in the next trailer and hint at some of it in the plot and I think it will do well enough to get there. If Episode IX follows the typical SW pattern (which TLJ seems to be doing more or less), it is bound to increase from TLJ out to 25% (or more). Now, if TLJ ends up dropping less than 30% from TFA (which I think it will); the increase for IX will probably end up being a bit smaller than Clones-Sith, but could still reach 20% or more, IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Walt Disney Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Elessar said: That's news to me. It has been commonly accepted that studios get like 60% of the DOM gross and like 40% on average of the OS gross. Those are of course rough figures. So not nearly as high a discrepancy. This is true as a general rule. But in a place like China, studios get only 25% of the profits. So it varies from country to country and can make a big difference. Also, the changing exchange rates makes the value of international grosses change. The same number of admissions can be worth different grosses in different years. That's why I stick to domestic numbers. The dollar value is always the same every year and it is easier to compare year to year. Edited December 28, 2017 by Walt Disney Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawk the Hutt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Finally, a very solid hold. Hope it can hold well through the weekend and beyond. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vc2002 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 hour ago, IronJimbo said: 1 hour ago, JonathanLB said: except for The Force Awakens, the box office champ. Please don't use confusing language you'll lead new users astray. Avatar is the box office champion of the world, TFA is a regional champion. Hey at least it's still more humble than NFL's World Champion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 1 minute ago, TommyA10 said: If Episode IX follows the typical SW pattern (which TLJ seems to be doing more or less), it is bound to increase from TLJ out to 25% (or more). Now, if TLJ ends up dropping less than 30% from TFA (which I think it will); the increase for IX will probably end up being a bit smaller than Clones-Sith, but could still reach 20% or more, IMO. It will follow the pattern cause this thing does. We may try to speculate about different scenarios ( under TLJ, over TFA) and some will make a case for one or the other deviation (Club Under, Club Over) cause patterns make things boring, but in the end it'll follow the pattern to a T. Game over before it even began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ocho Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 20 minutes ago, vc2002 said: Hey at least it's still more humble than NFL's World Champion. Or Miss Universe...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpiritComix Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Let me try to understand ... 'The Last Jedi' will have the worst multiplier among ALL Star Wars movies, even though it's released in December, but according to some people here, that's great and there's no problem with that. Okay then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 57 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said: No it's not. China has no history with SW, so they don't support it. SW never played in China. TFA was the first one to do so. And yet this changes nothing of what i said. It is a bad number for a blockbuster of any type. And to be honest no franchise has really history in China so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomCat Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, SpiritComix said: Let me try to understand ... 'The Last Jedi' will have the worst multiplier among ALL Star Wars movies, even though it's released in December, but according to some people here, that's great and there's no problem with that. Okay then Some of us don't think it'll have a bad multiplier either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Today is the day I see the sequel to a 2015 movie that I greatly enjoyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
