New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[the beast]

10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

There is no way that Phantom Thread number isn't a typo.

sorry i meant that particular number isnt right

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, Heretic said:

As Baumer said, not everyone follows tracking. Jumanji looks like the type of film that could have easily flopped. Everyone thought IT would open huge. Okay not 120, but I distinctly remember the vast majority of people expecting a 70-80m+ opening with the crazy hype it had. Jumanji is looking at a potential 800m WW gross. To me that is the surprise of the year. 

And I think what needs to be said - comedies have had a rough go...so expecting less than tracking became the "norm" for this type of movie...Other than DH2 and Girl's Trip, comedy has gone nowhere this year (or last)...to finally get one to mega-breakout and to have it be a sequel to a mediocre 90's movie...I didn't expect any type of decent performance until after those Dec 8 previews started to say "this isn't the crap you were expecting..."

[Valonqar]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

 

  Hide contents

the end of the Skywalker saga happened with Last Jedi

 

In name only. I do see your point.

 

That said, there's one variable that PT and OT didn't have and that's saturation. IX won't follow TLJ but have Solo in between. They may be different movies but it's still a SW a year so whether that will skew IX number remains to be seen.

Edited December 30, 2017 by Valonqar

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

TLJ forecast with Deadline's numbers:

 

Remainder of this week: 17.5M (554.5M Total)

Jan 5: 28.8M (6.3M weekdays, 589.6M Total)
Jan 12: 10.6M (5.3M weekdays, 605.5M Total)

Jan 19: 5.6M (1.7M weekdays, 612.8M Total)

Jan 26: 3.2M (1.3M weekdays, 617.3M Total)

Feb 2: 1.9M (700k weekdays, 619.9M Total)

Final Total: 623M (2.83x)

 

Is this even hitting a 3x anymore? Next weekend will probably determine that. There are a lot of variables on Friday and Saturday, but I don't think it can get much higher than 32-33M.

 

Jumanji:

 

Remainder of this week: 17.8M (203.4M Total)

Jan 5: 32.2M (7.5M weekdays, 243.1M Total)

Jan 12: 20.1M (8.9M weekdays, 272.1M Total)

Jan 19: 11.3M (3.8M weekdays, 287.2M Total)

Jan 26: 8.5M (2.4M weekdays, 298.1M Total)

Feb 2: 5.1M (1.1M weekdays, 304.3M Total)

Feb 9: 2.4M (900k weekdays, 307.6M Total)

Feb 16: 1.1M (400k weekdays, 309.1M Total)

Final Total: 312M (5.89x from 5 day)

 

I think passing Ragnarok (not just admissions; that's locked) period is in play  

 

I don’t think TLJ can finish under Avengers but it could have a tough time reaching Jurassic World. 

[WrathOfHan]

Runtimes without credits and trailer attachments for next week:

 

I, Tonya: 1:52. Attachments are Gemini and Hostiles

Insidious: 1:37. Attachments are Truth or Dare and Pacific Rim: Uprising

[That One Girl]

35 minutes ago, Gamera said:

If Vader kills Rose,  I'll see the movie 100 times.

 

@MrPink another racist to the list

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

In name only. I do see your point.

 

 

That said, there's one variable that PT and OT didn't have and that's saturation. IX won't follow TLJ but have Solo in between. They may be different movies but it's still a SW a year so whether that will skew IX number remains to be seen.

 

While thats right, theres still a 19 month gap between Han Solo and Episode IX. I think that will be enough to give the people time to get hyped again. Also, weve talked for years about SH fatigue and that has yet to settle in.

[MrPink]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

@MrPink another racist to the list

 

 

@CJohn

Edited December 30, 2017 by MrPink

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

While thats right, theres still a 19 month gap between Han Solo and Episode IX. I think that will be enough to give the people time to get hyped again. Also, weve talked for years about SH fatigue and that has yet to settle in.

You are right. Plus, there's no fatigue. Better SH movies do better, worse movies do worse. 

[Damianport1]

 

[The Futurist]

The absolute and unparallel creative genius you can feel in every brilliant scene and shot of the Last Jedi has probably

 

tarsnished the brand for a good five years.

 

Under 450m for Episode 9 here we go.

 

Plus, at this point, by December 2019, Episode 9 will be just "another" Star Wars, its story will conclude nothing, GA will be aware that there will be one new Star Wars movie every year.

 

#NOT_AN_EVENT

 

If you disagree with this post, please explain to me the elements that would make Episode 9 an event movie the scale of the other very big Star Wars movies.

Edited December 30, 2017 by The Futurist

[Elessar]

18 hours ago, JB33 said:

What? A drop on Friday for TLJ? No that's not happening. I wonder if Deadline is purposely doing this to manufacture positive headlines (maybe pushed by Disney/Lucasfilm) amid all the backlash and negativity.

18 hours ago, LinksterAC said:

I feel like someone should start playing the Derby with Deadline's predictions.  That would be entertaining.

18 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

Yeah I don’t see a decrease Friday lol that makes no sense. A lot of people do still work and Friday night is off for them. It just wouldn’t make any sense.

 

[George Parr]

17 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

TLJ forecast with Deadline's numbers:

 

Remainder of this week: 17.5M (554.5M Total)

Jan 5: 28.8M (6.3M weekdays, 589.6M Total)
Jan 12: 10.6M (5.3M weekdays, 605.5M Total)

Jan 19: 5.6M (1.7M weekdays, 612.8M Total)

Jan 26: 3.2M (1.3M weekdays, 617.3M Total)

Feb 2: 1.9M (700k weekdays, 619.9M Total)

Final Total: 623M (2.83x)

 

Is this even hitting a 3x anymore? Next weekend will probably determine that. There are a lot of variables on Friday and Saturday, but I don't think it can get much higher than 32-33M.

 

The Jan 12 weekend is a holiday, it's not going to drop almost 2/3s on that one. TFA and Rogue One dropped somewhere between 20-25% for the 4-day weekend.

[redfirebird2008]

Deadline’s late afternoon updates for Last Jedi have been pretty accurate. Gotta give them credit. 

[Brainbug]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

Deadline’s late afternoon updates for Last Jedi have been pretty accurate. Gotta give them credit. 

 

Yes. I remember Deadline beeing hilariously wrong in the past, but in the last 6 months or so, they were quite good with their calculations.

[WrathOfHan]

Going to try forecasting The Post:

 

Remainder of this week: 300k (2.2M Total)

Jan 5: 1.2M (600k weekdays, 4M Total)

Jan 12: 36.5M (17.7M weekdays, 58.2M Total)

Jan 19: 20M (9M weekdays, 87.2M Total)

Jan 26: 16M (6.5M weekdays, 109.7M Total)

Feb 2: 12.3M (3.7M weekdays, 125.7M Total)

Feb 9: 6.7M (3.5M weekdays, 135.9M Total)

Feb 16: 6.4M (4.3M weekdays, 146.6M Total)

Feb 23: 5.5M (2.6M weekdays, 154.7M Total)

Mar 2: 4.5M (2.5M weekdays, 161.7M Total)

Mar 9: 3.8M (1.5M weekdays, 167M Total)

Mar 16: 2M (900k weekdays, 169.9M Total)

Mar 23: 1.3M (500k weekdays, 171.7M Total)

Final Total: 175M

 

Keep in mind I'm expecting this to win at least one major Oscar if not BP, so strong late legs would be in store.

Edited December 30, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[grim22]

6 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Deadline’s late afternoon updates for Last Jedi have been pretty accurate. Gotta give them credit. 

I think the only big miss they had was last Friday when they said 28.5M for the Friday number.

[MrGlass2]

44 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Episode 9 has a real hook - it's the end of the Skywalker saga and they'll milk that fact for all its worth. Wait and see. We'll get sappy HP-like trailers that show all generations. We'll be constantly reminded that this is the farewell. They'll create a mini-event, not an event like TFA but it's definitely going to be more of an event than TLJ ever hoped to be. If they play their cards well like DH Pt 2 did with emotional goodbyes, and they will don't you worry, it's gonna fly past TLJ total .

SW IX is not like DH2, it is the end of nothing.

 

Emotional goodbyes? It isn't the spoilers thread but again: no.

[WrathOfHan]

9 minutes ago, George Parr said:

 

The Jan 12 weekend is a holiday, it's not going to drop almost 2/3s on that one. TFA and Rogue One dropped somewhere between 20-25% for the 4-day weekend.

It also wasn't going below 30M on Christmas Day.

[MrPink]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

It also wasn't going below 30M on Christmas Day.

 

On the flip side, there was like 8 weeks worth of your Wonder Woman projections that didn't end well. 

 

So I'm gonna go somewhere in the middle.

Edited December 30, 2017 by MrPink