New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[grey ghost]

Why would SW9 drop by 200-220 million?

 

AOTC is widely considered the worst SW saga movie and ROTS increased substantially.

[Rebeccas]

15 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Hard to really compare ESB though when ANH had a bazillion expansions and re-releases and player forever over the course of its "first run." It's real first run is probably closer to the 215m BOM shows by April '78. 

Also the release patterns for ANH and ESB are totally different from ROTJ and on, so they’re kind of their own species. ROTJ was the first SW to open wide immediately.

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Why would SW9 drop by 200-220 million?

 

AOTC is widely considered the worst SW saga movie and ROTS increased substantially.

 

Sith had Vader. I didn’t see Menace or Clones in theaters, but I was there opening day for Sith. Episode 9 doesn’t have the same sales pitch. I think it will end up with similar gross to Last Jedi, give or take 5% in either direction. 

[MovieMan89]

11 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Why would SW9 drop by 200-220 million?

 

AOTC is widely considered the worst SW saga movie and ROTS increased substantially.

There was a huge hook for ROTS. And for ROTJ. There is nothing selling 9 except simply being the finale. Plenty of finales have decreased, especially without a big hook or a lot of goodwill going in. Look at movies like Matrix Revolutions, At World's End, Mockingjay 2, Breaking Dawn 2, The Dark Knight Rises, etc. 

 

Also Sith really didn't increase all that much for having Vader and being marketed as basically the last SW movie ever. Only by 65m adjusted. Prequel reception up to that point definitely cut its potential. 

Edited December 30, 2017 by MovieMan89

[Bishop54]

I contributed to yesterday's total for TLJ, movie is terrible...didn't think it could get worse than TFA but low and behold, it sure did. 

[Hatebox]

Don't put it past them bringing a reincarnated Vader back for IX.

[RichWS]

Justice League

$225,962,000

 

The Fate of the Furious

Uni.

$225,764,765

 

 

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

Don't put it past them bringing a reincarnated Vader back for IX.

I would put that past them, but I wouldn't put it past them to make Kylo become the new Vader, with maybe a slightly modified costume and James Earl Jones and all. 

[lilmac]

21 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Hard to really compare ESB though when ANH had a bazillion expansions and re-releases and player forever over the course of its "first run." It's real first run is probably closer to the 215m BOM shows by April '78. 

 

Disagree. My figures (low $300s est.for ANH) were only for its original release period (late 70s).  It made much more than $215m   

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, RichWS said:

Justice League

$225,962,000

 

The Fate of the Furious

Uni.

$225,764,765

 

 

 

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

Hey, there's an outside chance F8 beats TLJ WW if that comforts you. 

[redfirebird2008]

5 minutes ago, lilmac said:

 

Disagree. My figures (low $300s est.for ANH) were only for its original release period (late 70s).  It made much more than $215m   

 

It was at 220 in April 1978. They did a full blown re-release in July 1978 and again in 1979. 

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, That One Guy said:

 

Still on its way to 100M domestic.  Would be a hit with a smaller budget.

I don’t think it is on its way to $100m domestic. 

 

And the budget is what it is. Not a hit by any stretch. 

[MovieMan89]

Showman may not end up a hit, but they did get extremely lucky that WOM looks to be amazing. Would have been a massive bomb otherwise with that opening. 

[Bishop54]

It was painful seeing Hamil and Fisher on screen, they're both long past their prime and it wasn't pleasant seeing them on screen. Fisher was terrible, truly no acting range whatsoever. Oh and Hamil's voice? I thought he was going to go full to his full on animated Joker voice. Also, stop with the puppets and lousy character costumes. 

[TwoMisfits]

One local "found" an extra 4pm showing for Jumanji today, even in this Xmas season of packed showings...I'm gonna see if they "find" anymore before the day is out...probably a sign that Jumanji is continuing its WOM run through today...who knows?  Maybe the 4 day can be up for grabs even with way less showings and less premium screening prices...

 

PS - It was Father Figures who lost (and that screening for Jumanji is already sold out)...

Edited December 30, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[MovieMan89]

Efron should go back to musicals, looks like the one thing he's actually not box office poison in. With the anomaly of Neighbors, Showman will join Hairspray and HSM3 as his only movies to make 80m+ DOM. Jackman also only seems able to pull those numbers outside of Wolverine in a musical. 

Edited December 30, 2017 by MovieMan89

[grey ghost]

28 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

There was a huge hook for ROTS. And for ROTJ. There is nothing selling 9 except simply being the finale. Plenty of finales have decreased, especially without a big hook or a lot of goodwill going in. Look at movies like Matrix Revolutions, At World's End, Mockingjay 2, Breaking Dawn 2, The Dark Knight Rises, etc. 

 

Also Sith really didn't increase all that much for having Vader and being marketed as basically the last SW movie ever. Only by 65m adjusted. Prequel reception up to that point definitely cut its potential. 

Virtually all of these peaked with the second movie.

 

Not good comps for SW trilogies which always peak with the first.

[SWXII]

I have figured out a way Episode IX can redeem the franchise without destroying the previous two trilogies in the process. Episode 8 is not salvageable. But since it ended where it started essentially, that shouldn't be a problem. I expect ticket sales will plummet if JJ can't put Humpty Dumpty back together again. Fans won't be fooled yet again.

[grey ghost]

36 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Sith had Vader. I didn’t see Menace or Clones in theaters, but I was there opening day for Sith. Episode 9 doesn’t have the same sales pitch. I think it will end up with similar gross to Last Jedi, give or take 5% in either direction. 

Vader's 1 minute NOOOOOOOOO cameo is why ROTS didn't drop from AOTC?