New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[JB33]

15 minutes ago, RyneOh1040 said:

lol @ people now saying TLJ disappointing performance is to be blamed on Jumanji.  

 

1.  TLJ is going to make a ton of money for Disney.

 

2.  It's performance post OW has been completely underwhelming and the Friday number is flat out disappointing (this is due to mixed WOM with the GA and fanboys alike)

 

Both of those truths can coexist.

They go hand in hand. If word of mouth on TLJ was better, than Jumanji wouldn't be taking business away. Just today we had some friends invite me and another friend to go out to see Jumanji. They haven't even seen the new Star Wars yet, and 99.999% that would be the go to movie. Not in this case. 

[DAR]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It's the movie every SW fan wanted to see whenever Lucas talked about his idea of the prequels for years. No one was waiting all those years to see Senate meetings, the clone wars, Count Dooku, and Anakin's budding love life. They were waiting to see ROTS. It  had 20+ years of hype leading into it. Of course it was a hook. 

They wanted to see the clone wars.  Just not how it was presented 

[hw64]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

If you think Vader doing a Frankenstein monster walk and screaming NOOOOO outweighs all of that by a couple hundred million then I dunno what to tell you.

But again, it wasn't the appearance of Vader that was the draw - the draw was finding out how Anakin became Vader, which was half of the movie, as @redfirebird2008 said.

[NoLegMan]

Alright, guys chill out, I know you aren't calling TLJ a flop, but some of these comments almost give that impression. It didn't perform like Disney wanted, but please stop acting like it's the end of a franchise. It's getting worse than Forbes in here. 

[cannastop]

2 hours ago, John Marston said:

I can see Episode 9 dropping to 450m or even 400m

 

Why would the third part of the trilogy fall that far?

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

This is last Skywalker saga movie and might be the final movie with...

 

(Very mild spoilers)

 

Rey, Finn, Poe, Kylo, Chewbacca, R2-D2, and the millennium falcon.

 

If you think Vader doing a Frankenstein monster walk and screaming NOOOOO outweighs all of that by a couple hundred million then I dunno what to tell you.

 

I said nothing about a $200m difference. I said it will end up within 5% of Last Jedi in either direction. Assuming 650 for Last Jedi, that means I expect 620-680 for Episode 9. 

[MovieMan89]

Yeah, IX won't fall by a huge amount if it does. It could however end up the least attended third installment. 

[grey ghost]

20 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

1/3 of the people that watched TFA are skipping TLJ.

Lol, you think most of those people are Star Wars fans.

 

Basically most casual movie goers will watch a cultural phenomenon. That's what makes them cultural phenomenons.

 

But how many of those people would mount a toy lightsaber in their house?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2017 by grey ghost

[RyneOh1040]

4 minutes ago, JB33 said:

They go hand in hand. If word of mouth on TLJ was better, than Jumanji wouldn't be taking business away. Just today we had some friends invite me and another friend to go out to see Jumanji. They haven't even seen the new Star Wars yet, and 99.999% that would be the go to movie. Not in this case. 

this is my point exactly.  TLJ is doing what TLJ is doing because it has mixed WOM.  Jumanji is posting almost identical numbers to Sing last year.  It didn't have the same affect on RO.  I'm not saying competition doesn't matter, I'm saying TLJ underperformance isn't mainly based on Jumanji's overperformance it's based on mediocre reception and isolation of some of the most diehard fans.  Correlation does not equal causation.

[grey ghost]

4 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

I said nothing about a $200m difference. I said it will end up within 5% of Last Jedi in either direction. Assuming 650 for Last Jedi, that means I expect 620-680 for Episode 9. 

Sure, a reasonable expectation but some are entertaining the idea of SW9 dropping to 400-450 m. 

[MovieMan89]

I don't think an increase is out of the question for it either though. It will depend on marketing and if it can really please the fanbase at large like TFA did. That will be paramount after TLJ, and obviously not at all easy now. 

Edited December 30, 2017 by MovieMan89

[NoLegMan]

Underestimating Disney is probably not a smart move, especially if you look at the last decade. 

[RyneOh1040]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

I don't think an increase is out of the question for it either though. It will depend on marketing and if it can really please the fanbase at large like TFA did after TLJ. 

i feel the same way.  i have a feeling in two years we might get big numbers and hear A LOT of 'see, Episode 8 isn't that disliked WOM was great'.  and i still don't think it will be true.  the brand is just that big, TFA was a universal crowdpleaser and it's orchestrater is returning.  the only REAL complaint you tend to hear about TFA was the copying of plot devices.  TLJ actually has large groups of people who just don't care for it.  Big difference.

 

Still, I think the conclusion effect and Abrams returns puts it at least the same ball park as TLJ.

[REC]

15 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

There's a blank slate now.

 

There are no expectations or fan theories to be destroyed.

 

All Disney has to do is make an entertaining SW movie.

 

And there's no way any SW fan is going to skip SW9, lol.

 

These guys sat through all three prequels despite all the bitching.

I'll admit I did.  Each prequel was worse than the last or at least equally bad to each other in many ways.  And I went to each one in the theater.  Each time I felt burned and betrayed (much like a certain character getting his limbs lopped off and burned by lava).

 

TFA rekindled that hope that SW can be a good fun adventure again, and TLJ took it away, again.  So I've developed a new rule.  I'm not seeing any more star wars movies until I've gotten a complete breakdown of the story.  And if I don't like what they've written, I won't see it.

 

This whole thing about "can't have any spoilers" and "no spoilers ever!" is really just a trap to get people to see the crap they put on screen.  I'm not falling for it anymore.  I mean yaknow, trick me at least 4 times and I eventually do learn.  What I've learned is SW can be so completely hit or miss that script pre-approval is the only solution.

 

But you're right.  I say all this now but who knows?  In a year and a half if there's all this buzz about how JJ has righted the ship (again) and they put out some kind of awesome trailer I could fall for it.  Again.  Sucker me right back in.  I can imagine a number of ways that Disney and company could rebuild credibility for fans like me, put that hook in my mouth and get me in opening day.

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Sure, a reasonable expectation but some are entertaining the idea of SW9 dropping to 400-450 m. 

 

You gotta ignore the trolls. 😆

[NoLegMan]

It will be interesting to see how Han Solo is affected by this. 

[grey ghost]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Oops too late, TLJ beat it to the punch.

You do realize there are multiple characters connected to the Skywalker Saga .

 

Spoiler

C-3PO, Leia, R2-D2, Chewbacca, Lando, the millennium falcon, Kylo Ren, Yoda, etc.

 

Any of these names ring a bell?

 

Cause SW9 will be their last appearance in history.

 

 

[MovieMan89]

I almost have to wonder if Disney did realize TLJ was going to be divisive and just tried to divert with all the pre-release comments about how incredibly pleased and assured they were in it. Maybe that’s the real reason for Trevorrows axing and bringing back Abrams. They knew they were going to need another crowd pleaser like TFA after this movie.

[JB33]

7 minutes ago, RyneOh1040 said:

this is my point exactly.  TLJ is doing what TLJ is doing because it has mixed WOM.  Jumanji is posting almost identical numbers to Sing last year.  It didn't have the same affect on RO.  I'm not saying competition doesn't matter, I'm saying TLJ underperformance isn't mainly based on Jumanji's overperformance it's based on mediocre reception and isolation of some of the most diehard fans.  Correlation does not equal causation.

Agreed.

[Boxofficerules]

Can Insidious Chapter 4 survive the double gang bang of TLJ and Jumanji?