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Best Picture Predictions - 2018

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12 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

btw the statistics are totally on the side of a Blackkklansman win in terms of nominations. it's the only film that hit every major guild and also got Directing+Acting+Writing+Editing oscar nominations. the problem is that it hasn't actually won shit yet.

I don't think it'll happen but if it won SAG on Sunday that would be major.

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14 minutes ago, Barnack said:

If Scorsese had DiCaprio for is movie, he could get the big money, the no studio intervention during is shooting and the theater release like he did with the 100m Wolf Of Wall Street. 

lol it really ain’t all that easy. Have you ever read up on how that movie was funded?

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1 hour ago, CoolioD1 said:

lol it really ain’t all that easy. Have you ever read up on how that movie was funded?

That because of Scorsese really not wanting to have any studio involved during production sure, but  look what Tarantino and Iñárritu got, I would imagine Scorsese would have achieved to get a theater release with a package that work.

 

Anyway like I said, I doubt it is 100% on the same tier yet than in theater movie release.

 

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

right, it was. (Bird Box Netflix production) @Barnack

So it never was a choice made to be on it or not relative to is quality/business potential looking at the final result, that was from the start.

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I suppose it's possible ASIB is still the one with the most Academy support but Cooper just had too many huge personal noms in the air and one got the axe because of it. Though I would still think it would have been actor, not director that got the snub if the Academy was leaning towards ASIB.

Edited by MovieMan89
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1 hour ago, CoolioD1 said:

malek/close/ali/king feels pretty locked up. at least best picture still feels up in the air.

I don't think King is locked.

 

Stallone won best supporting actor at Golden Globe but wasn't even nominated in SAG and BAFTA. SAG winner went to Idris who was snubbed by the Oscar while BAFTA went to Mark Rylance. In the end, Mark Rylance won Oscar thanks to the consistency across the board and the film he was in is best picture nominees. 

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14 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I don't think King is locked.

 

Stallone won best supporting actor at Golden Globe but wasn't even nominated in SAG and BAFTA. SAG winner went to Idris who was snubbed by the Oscar while BAFTA went to Mark Rylance. In the end, Mark Rylance won Oscar thanks to the consistency across the board and the film he was in is best picture nominees. 

I'm keeping King as my pick for the prediction but I'll have to keep my eye on the BAFTAs. Mark Rylance won the award there before getting the Oscar, I won't be surprised if whoever wins there ends up with the biggie. 

Edited by Rorschach
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Please BAFTA give it to The Favorite so that we have a true nailbiter come Oscar night. :lol:

 

@Carlangonz After SAG, which was always BP's too lose and only BP's, you can kiss BKKK as a spoiler goodbye. DGA will award Cuaron. The historical narrative for Lee hasn't taken off. There's more of "GB win would be Driving Miss Daisy-like insult to Lee" than "Lee should make history". See the difference? It's way more anti-GB win than pro-Lee win. 

 

So that leaves Roma in the frontrunner seat and also historical win as the first foreign language Best Picture if it happens. so pretty big narrative. Then we have GB as a potential spoiler cause people love it. And then we have BP as a very long shot that has nothing going for it (read: missed all above the line noms save Best Picture) but this is a strange year and it won a big award since Disney campaigning is focused on Picture, not so much on other awards. That's your reason why Jordan didn't make it. never campaigned as an individual achievement. It's all about the whole. They want Picture nom/win. So watch that space. Hope rises. 

 

 

Edited by Valonqar
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As long as Roma wins DGA I think BP is a toss-up between Roma and Green Book.

 

Id say BP and Klansman are long shot spoilers.  ASIB is dead at this point,l.

 

We also need to see who wins BAFTA

Edited by The Panda
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1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

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(also someone who hasn't won an industry award so spare me)

King at least won the Golden Globe, which is more than Stone or Weisz have received. I think it's safe to say that had SAG nominated her, they would've awarded her to keep up the momentum.

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Roma showed up EVERYWHERE it needed to in terms of Oscar noms, even Best Actress and Supporting Actress. I think those two nominations are in particular a big time tell for me, idk. Certainly if it doesn't win DGA then I might start to have real questions but right now I think it's Roma in the lead, with Green Book and Black Kkklansman still very viable. ASIB and Favourite aren't completely toast but are probably toast. 

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