Best Picture Predictions - 2018

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It’s basically this year’s The Greatest Showman except more #problematic (since most people are likely gonna accept this film as an actual account of what happened and not pure fantasy like they did with that film).

Historical inaccuracy in BR is very bad but it's not near as offensive as how poorly they handle the gay/HIV stuff. They literally do a dramatic foreshadowing of Freddie getting HIV by having him do lingering stares in a leather bar, then smash cut to a news report on AIDs! That's some unbelievable shit to be doing in this here 2018.

[CoolioD1]

i saw bohemian rhapsody w/ a big group and i can't tell you the reactions people gave me when i told them i didn't like it after. my dad even keeps pressing the issue keeps asking "i don't understand... why didn't you like that movie?" and he hasn't even seen it yet.

[filmlover]

13 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Historical inaccuracy in BR is very bad but it's not near as offensive as how poorly they handle the gay/HIV stuff. They literally do a dramatic foreshadowing of Freddie getting HIV by having him do lingering stares in a leather bar, then smash cut to a news report on AIDs! That's some unbelievable shit to be doing in this here 2018.

That and the whole portrayal of the evil gay manager (someone in one of those big thinkpieces after the film came out compared Allen Leech’s performance in the film to one of those mustachioed men trying to lure little boys into their cars from those old “Beware of Homosexuals” black and white videos that were used to “educate” children decades ago and I was like holy shit is that accurate). Very odd acting choice there.

Edited December 12, 2018 by filmlover

[Rorschach]

I enjoyed Bohemian Rhapsody but I'd be hard pressed to say that its Best Picture worthy. I mean, at this point, I certainly won't be shocked if it is nominated but outside of Malek, there really wasn't anything about it that was especially noteworthy.

[CoolioD1]

people are just super into queen. if it had been a halfway good movie it'd probs win best picture easy.

[Valonqar]

BR went for emotion and considering reports of people crying buckets it passed the test with flying colors. Plus that insane boxoffice. Repeat business if out of this world. 

 

The more inclusive AMPAS and Guilds get, the more their taste will reflect GA. It's inevitable. They used to be criticized as out of touch with GA cause too old, and now they are too populist cause too young? You can't have it both ways. I prefer the latter. 

Edited December 12, 2018 by Valonqar

[CoolioD1]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

BR went for emotion and considering reports of people crying buckets it passed the test with flying colors. Plus that insane boxoffice. Repeat business if out of this world. 

 

The more inclusive AMPAS and Guilds get, the more their taste will reflect GA. It's inevitable. They used to be criticized as out of touch with GA cause too old, and now they are too populist cause too young? You can't have it both ways. I prefer the latter. 

they're too populist NOW? who's saying this? they haven't given Best Picture to a hit since Argo. big grossers always used to win.

[Cmasterclay]

I don't think a movie with one person of color in the entire cast (whose heritage is avoided for much of the film) and a pretty shitty attitude towards gay people is the definition of progressive or inclusive, but go for it.

[filmlover]

What’s funny is that the current president of the Academy was reported to saying that the Oscars were becoming too much like the Spirit Awards and meanwhile his attempts to bring the Oscars back to where it was 20 years ago (first with that Popular Movie category that went bust and more recently with landing a big name host with a swarm of fans that would tune in that ended up backfiring and now we are looking to go with no host). You think any of this stuff would’ve happened had Laura Dern landed the job? I’m gonna go with “hell no.”

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

they're too populist NOW? who's saying this? they haven't given Best Picture to a hit since Argo. big grossers always used to win.

well, SAG noms are currently trashed as too populist so...

 

And I have faith they'll do the right thing and award BP. Whether BP+ Coogler or BP+ other. 

[titanic2187]

Just come back from Netflix's Roma, indeed, it is a very personal film to the point that even the award recognition on the film is very personal too......it is all about cauron.....

[SLAM!]

The Las Vegas Film Society announced their winners:

 

Best Picture

"Roma"

 

Best Actor

Ethan Hawke, "First Reformed"

 

Best Actress

Lady Gaga, "A Star is Born"

 

Best Supporting Actor

Sam Elliott,  "A Star is Born"

 

Best Supporting Actress

Regina King – "If Beale Street Could Talk"

 

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron, "Roma"

 

Best Original Screenplay

Bryan Woods, Scott Beck & John Krasinski, "A Quiet Place"

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini, "Leave No Trace"

 

Best Cinematography

Alfonso Cuaron, "Roma"

 

Best Film Editing

Alfonso Cuaron & Adam Gough, "Roma"

 

Best Score

Thom Yorke, "Suspiria"

 

Best Song

"Shallow," by Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper, "A Star is Born"

 

Best Documentary

"Won’t You Be My Neighbor"

 

Best Animated Film

"Isle of Dogs"

 

Best Foreign Film

"Roma"

 

Best Costume Design

"The Favourite"

 

Best Art Direction

"Isle of Dogs"

 

Best Visual Effects

"Ready Player One"

 

Best Action Film

"Mission: Impossible – Fallout"

 

Best Comedy

"Sorry to Bother You"

 

Best Horror/ Sci-Fi

"A Quiet Place"

 

Best Family Film

"Mary Poppins Returns"

 

Best Ensemble

"Widows"

 

Breakout Filmmaker (Director)

Bradley Cooper, "A Star is Born"

 

Best Youth Male Performance

Ed Oxenbould, Wildlife"

 

Best You Female Performance

Elsie Fisher, "Eighth Grade"

 

William Holden Lifetime Achievement Award

Sam Elliott

 

They announced their top ten films of the year, too:

 

1. Roma

2. A Star is Born

3. Green Book

4. First Reformed

5. BlackkKlansman

6. The Favourite

7. Vice

8. Eighth Grade

9. Wildlife

10. The Rider

[SLAM!]

Vancouver Film Critics Circle Nominations

 

Best Picture

The Favourite

First Reformed

Roma

 

Best Actor, Male

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Christian Bale, Vice

 

Best Actor, Female 

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Regina Hall, Support the Girls

 

Best Supporting Actor, Male

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Peter Bogdanovich, The Other Side of the Wind

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Steven Yeun, Burning

 

Best Supporting Actor, Female

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Claire Foy, First Man

 

Best Director 

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Paul Schrader, First Reformed

Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

 

Best Screenplay

Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade

Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite

Paul Schrader, First Reformed

 

Best Foreign Language Film

Burning

Roma

Shoplifters

 

Best Documentary

Free Solo

Minding the Gap

Won't You Be My Neighbor?

[The Panda]

As a movie, BR is more tolerable than TGS because the soundtrack is actually good.

 

However... At least TGS didn’t marginalize a community and wasn’t (partially) directed by a pedophile?

 

Oh no... I’m literally defending TGS rn, what has this world come to?

[Webslinger]

Having watched Roma this morning, I feel pretty safe predicting a second directing Oscar for Cuaron. As great as the many other contributors are, it's his baby from start to finish. 

 

That said... I worry about the Netflix factor for Best Picture. It shouldn't matter to a group that sees so many movies via screener, but I could see enough voters taking a hard line against awarding a streaming film, especially bearing in mind that Roma is the kind of film that should be experienced theatrically.

[WrathOfHan]

Yeah, I feel pretty good about Cuaron winning Director (and Cinematography). They'll probably just give Cooper Actor (and Picture?). However, I'm wondering if Roma could miss in Screenplay. I know it's a pretty light year for the category, but Roma doesn't have much dialogue compared to the other main contenders save for A Quiet Place, which is banking on the concept. I'm not dropping it from my predicts, but if it's snubbed on nomination morning, I won't be shocked. The Favourite is gonna win this category with ease.

Edited December 16, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[CoolioD1]

cinematography and foreign film are the two categories that you could absolutely lock the winner right now. and probably shallow for best song is a lock too. the others there are some categories with definitive frontrunners but there could still be room for surprise. of course by the time we get to the weekend of the oscars there's gonna be like 15 categories that feel locked.

[titanic2187]

4 hours ago, Webslinger said:

Having watched Roma this morning, I feel pretty safe predicting a second directing Oscar for Cuaron. As great as the many other contributors are, it's his baby from start to finish. 

 

That said... I worry about the Netflix factor for Best Picture. It shouldn't matter to a group that sees so many movies via screener, but I could see enough voters taking a hard line against awarding a streaming film, especially bearing in mind that Roma is the kind of film that should be experienced theatrically.

That could be a mishap. One has to stick with their mind, ROMA is a foreign language film.

Remember Ang Lee for crouching tiger hidden dragon? Ang lee won both Golden Globe and DGA, but oscar gave it to steven for Traffic in the end. 

 

Same for Julian for Diving bell and the butterfly, wining GG and nominated in DGA, yet the foreign language status hurt him in oscar race

Edited December 16, 2018 by titanic2187

[filmlover]

I saw The Favourite today finally and gotta say it’s too bad they didn’t stick Olivia Colman in Supporting (and moved either one of Stone or Weisz to Lead because the movie is mainly about their rivalry for Colman’s affection) because they could have easily gotten away with it and she likely would’ve sweeped considering that category’s current state.

[CoolioD1]

posted the song shortlist in that thread. here's some other shortlists

 

score:

Quote

“Annihilation”
“Avengers: Infinity War”
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Crazy Rich Asians”
“The Death of Stalin”
“Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald”
“First Man”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
“A Quiet Place”
“Ready Player One”
“Vice”

vfx:

Quote

“Ant-Man and the Wasp”
“Avengers: Infinity War”
“Black Panther”
“Christopher Robin”
“First Man”
“Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
“Ready Player One”
“Solo: A Star Wars Story”
“Welcome to Marwen”

make-up:

Quote

“Black Panther”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“Border”
“Mary Queen of Scots”
“Stan & Ollie”
“Suspiria”
“Vice”

foreign film:

Quote

Colombia, “Birds of Passage”
Denmark, “The Guilty”
Germany, “Never Look Away”
Japan, “Shoplifters”
Kazakhstan, “Ayka”
Lebanon, “Capernaum”
Mexico, “Roma”
Poland, “Cold War”
South Korea, “Burning”

 

Edited December 17, 2018 by CoolioD1