Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[MaxAggressor]

49 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

No idea where you got all that from, but gonna trust you know what you're talking about. Thanks!

Using the 221 and 181 numbers, you get these adjusted for inflation drops from first to second in the trilogies:

 

ANH to ESB: -32%

TFA to TLJ: -36% (assuming 620 for TLJ)

TPM to AOTC: -39%

Without immediate re-expansion & later re-releases the drops from 1st to 2nd chapters are:

 

ANH to ESB - 18.02%

TPM to AOTC - 29.9%

TFA to TLJ - 33.65% (Assuming 621.46 million for TLJ)

[dxmatrixdt]

1 minute ago, MaxAggressor said:

Without immediate re-expansion & later re-releases the drops from 1st to 2nd chapters are:

 

ANH to ESB - 18.02%

TPM to AOTC - 29.9%

TFA to TLJ - 33.65% (Assuming 621.46 million for TLJ)

Impressive.  Going on 3 straight trilogies with similar bumps awaiting the third movie.  I wonder what they will cook up for the middle chapter of another trilogy.

[MaxAggressor]

22 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

Impressive.  Going on 3 straight trilogies with similar bumps awaiting the third movie.  I wonder what they will cook up for the middle chapter of another trilogy.

Are they really that similar tho?? I mean we can club AOTC & TLJ together because the respective drops for both from their predecessor will be somewhat close to each other. But ESB did much better than both in terms of retention from the first of the trilogy.

 

Off the top of my head only SM2 (-7.46%) did better in terms of sequels to record breaking movies at the time. ESB is in same the bracket as that of TDKR (-15.98%) & HP2 (-17.5%).

 

I'm not really sure how much Ep. IX will increase from TLJ. There is an off chance that it might not happen. But a (10-12)% increase from TLJ could very well be in the cards. So (680-700) million final total for Ep. IX.

Edited January 14, 2018 by MaxAggressor

[dxmatrixdt]

7 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

Are they really that similar tho?? I mean we can club AOTC & TLJ together because the respective drops for both from their predecessor will be somewhat close to each other. But ESB did much better than both in terms of retention from the first of the trilogy.

 

Off the top my head only SM2 (-7.46%) did better in terms of sequels to record breaking movies at the time. ESB is in same the bracket as that of TDKR (-15.98%) & HP2 (-17.5%).

 

I'm not really sure how much Ep. IX will increase from TLJ. There is an off chance that it might not happen. But a (10-12)% increase from TLJ could very well be in the cards. So (680-700) million for Ep. IX.

return of the jedi and revenge of the sith both had small increases from episode 2. (in terms of admissions).  Also, you have to rmemeber Jar jar helped with the legs and AOTC filled up alot of seats on OW

Edited January 14, 2018 by Matrix4You

[a2k]

12 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

Are they really that similar tho?? I mean we can club AOTC & TLJ together because the respective drops for both from their predecessor will be somewhat close to each other. But ESB did much better than both in terms of retention from the first of the trilogy.

 

Off the top my head only SM2 (-7.46%) did better in terms of sequels to record breaking movies at the time. ESB is in same the bracket as that of TDKR (-15.98%) & HP2 (-17.5%).

 

I'm not really sure how much Ep. IX will increase from TLJ. There is an off chance that it might not happen. But a (10-12)% increase from TLJ could very well be in the cards. So (680-700) million for Ep. IX.

TLJ's 34% odd drop from TFA is similar to JP2's 35% drop from JP1. The difference being that some goodwill from TFA was burnt off by RO, similar to how there were 3 movies between TA and AOU that over-performed and used up some of TA's goodwill. But then AOU dropped "only" 26% form TA, much less than TLJ so TLJ clearly has been well below optimum. I think +/- 10% for SW9 from TLJ looks like it, which gives 560-680.

[Brainbug]

When was the last time 3  different movies topped the weekend three times in a row right after one another?

 

We had Coco 3 times, TLJ 3 times and now Jumanji looks very likely to win next weekend too

[MaxAggressor]

6 minutes ago, a2knet said:

TLJ's 34% odd drop from TFA is similar to JP2's 35% drop from JP1. The difference being that some goodwill from TFA was burnt off by RO, similar to how there were 3 movies between TA and AOU that over-performed and used up some of TA's goodwill. But then AOU dropped "only" 26% form TA, much less than TLJ so TLJ clearly has been well below optimum. I think +/- 10% for SW9 from TLJ looks like it, which gives 560-680.

Yup.

 

TLW dropped 35.84% from JP. I think it is the worst performing big blockbuster sequel to a record breaking 1st movie. The decline of the multiplier was a staggering 58.9% from JP to TLW (although TLW did open higher to break records itself).

 

The best overall sequel stats belong to SM2, TDKR & LOTR:TTT among big movies. TTT increased on OW (82.027m>>61.170m) and it declined just 19.13% w.r.t the multiplier from FOTR while increasing 8.43% in terms of final domestic gross.

[Noctis]

Catching Fire's run is insanely impressive.

[meriodejaneiro]

11 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

When was the last time 3  different movies topped the weekend three times in a row right after one another?

 

We had Coco 3 times, TLJ 3 times and now Jumanji looks very likely to win next weekend too

Not that pattern, but last year was (en 2016 beginning 2017):

 

Moana-Moana-Moana - RO-RO-RO - Hidden Figures-Hidden Figures - Split-Split-Split - LegoBatman-LegoBatman

 

That makes 3-3-2-3-2. But 3-3-3 i have checked from 1982 and doesn't appear one. 

 

Between 1992-1993 you have a 3-3-1-1-3 with HomeAlone2 (x3), AFewGoodMen (x3), Aladdin, AFewGoodMen, Aladdin(x3).

[Mojoguy]

TLJ will drop $700m from TFA.

Edited January 14, 2018 by Mojoguy

[George Parr]

10 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

Yup.

 

TLW dropped 35.84% from JP. I think it is the worst performing big blockbuster sequel to a record breaking 1st movie. The decline of the multiplier was a staggering 58.9% from JP to TLW (although TLW did open higher to break records itself).

 

The best overall sequel stats belong to SM2, TDKR & LOTR:TTT among big movies. TTT increased on OW (82.027m>>61.170m) and it declined just 19.13% w.r.t the multiplier from FOTR while increasing 8.43% in terms of final domestic gross.

Using multipliers doesn't really work with TLW though. It started on Memorial Day weekend, so it basically had a four-day opening and its three day weekend was inflated. Thus it was bound to have a bigger multiplier drop than usual, as Jurassic Park opened on a regular weekend.

 

You can see the same effect with Attack of the Clones and the fourth Indiana Jones. Both started on a Thursday in May, it's just that the former started the weekend prior to memorial day, while Indy 4 started on memorial day weekend. The former was thus bound to have a better multiplier (if you even want to use multipliers for 4-day openings), even though the total ended up being lower. AOTC had the following weekend numbers: 80m (110m with thursday), 48/60, 21, 14, 9.4, 5.2, 3.7, 2.5, 1.3, 1m. Indy had 100/126m (151m if you count thursday), 44.8, 22.8, 14.7, 8.5, 5.2, 3.8, 2.3, ~1, 0.6. Which means the two more or less matched each other during the stages were they made decent money, yet AOTC ends up with a better multiplier because it just happens to have memorial day on its second weekend instead of the first one. Sometimes the circumstances just make things work out that way.

 

The Dark Knight Returns looks better than it really did as well, because unlike The Dark Knight, TDKR had 3D.

[KP1025]

4 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

TLJ will drop $700m from TFA.

The biggest sequel drop in raw gross that I know of is Alice Through the Looking Glass, which dropped $726 million from the first film. TLJ has to make under $1.342 billion to take that record, which is a very real possibility.  

[meriodejaneiro]

15 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

TLJ will drop $700m from TFA.

 

7 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

The biggest sequel drop in raw gross that I know of is Alice Through the Looking Glass, which dropped $726 million from the first film. TLJ has to make under $1.342 billion to take that record, which is a very real possibility.  

With the difference that TLJ will still make hundred of millions of net profit. 

[Lordmandeep]

TLJ must have great WOM if its dropping 50% again lol 

[baumer]

7 hours ago, aabattery said:

That's another hold better than NATM for Jumanji.

 

If I have done my math right (which is never a sure thing) and it follows NATM for the rest of its run, it'll end with 395M.

 

I think at this point, we need to discuss the real possibility of it doing 400 million.  It just continues to defy expectations and if we are using NATM as the barometer, that makes sense.  But at this point, Jumanji is kind of blazing it's own path.  400 wouldn't surprise me and it shouldn't be out of the question.  Maybe it does have a shot to pass the origina l Spider-man.

[baumer]

Have we covered every angle of TLJ yet?  At this point, it's not just broken records, it's a jukebox that plays the same song on a loop 24 hours a day.  

[Premium George]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I think at this point, we need to discuss the real possibility of it doing 400 million.  It just continues to defy expectations and if we are using NATM as the barometer, that makes sense.  But at this point, Jumanji is kind of blazing it's own path.  400 wouldn't surprise me and it shouldn't be out of the question.  Maybe it does have a shot to pass the origina l Spider-man.

I remember when wonder woman was at 300m, people were saying end result as 360-380. 400 was seen as very outside possibility.

In the end it passed that comfortably, so 400 for jumanji or over SM1 should be a legit final gross.

[Brainbug]

9 minutes ago, baumer said:

Have we covered every angle of TLJ yet?  At this point, it's not just broken records, it's a jukebox that plays the same song on a loop 24 hours a day.  

 

I agree. Jumanji and Greatest Showman deserve more attention than they already have. I dont want Jumanji beeing remembered as "the movie that exploded after TLJ", i want it to be "the movie that exploded", because its just doing its own thing. Same with Showman showing these awesome legs.

[titanic2187]

7 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I agree. Jumanji and Greatest Showman deserve more attention than they already have. I dont want Jumanji beeing remembered as "the movie that exploded after TLJ", i want it to be "the movie that exploded", because its just doing its own thing. Same with Showman showing these awesome legs.

Three billboard needs too!! it seriously need another round of expansion, that PTA just isn't dropping after adding 200%+ of theater 

[MaxAggressor]

1 hour ago, George Parr said:

Using multipliers doesn't really work with TLW though. It started on Memorial Day weekend, so it basically had a four-day opening and its three day weekend was inflated. Thus it was bound to have a bigger multiplier drop than usual, as Jurassic Park opened on a regular weekend.

 

Quote

The Dark Knight Returns looks better than it really did as well, because unlike The Dark Knight, TDKR had 3D.

 

Those are 2 very good points.

 

Quote

 

You can see the same effect with Attack of the Clones and the fourth Indiana Jones. Both started on a Thursday in May, it's just that the former started the weekend prior to memorial day, while Indy 4 started on memorial day weekend. The former was thus bound to have a better multiplier (if you even want to use multipliers for 4-day openings), even though the total ended up being lower. AOTC had the following weekend numbers: 80m (110m with thursday), 48/60, 21, 14, 9.4, 5.2, 3.7, 2.5, 1.3, 1m. Indy had 100/126m (151m if you count thursday), 44.8, 22.8, 14.7, 8.5, 5.2, 3.8, 2.3, ~1, 0.6. Which means the two more or less matched each other during the stages were they made decent money, yet AOTC ends up with a better multiplier because it just happens to have memorial day on its second weekend instead of the first one. Sometimes the circumstances just make things work out that way.

 

I used the average of the 4 day/5 day weekend & the 3 day figure (FSS) wherever it's applicable. It's not an exact science but I remember redfirebird2008 mentioning that this is a much better way of calculating a comparable 3 day OW for a 4/5 day opener.

 

So using that method I calculated the OWs of SM2, AOTC, FOTR, TTT and TLW and others.

 

OW of AOTC came in at 95.1 million which does look reasonable but the OW of SM2 becomes 120.28 million. I'm not sure if SM2 would have increased from the 1st over a normal 3 day weekend so the method could very well go wrong in the latter's case.