Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[aabattery]

4 minutes ago, weresweresweres said:

After 26 days Wonder Woman had 325 mln and summer weekdays, after 26 days Jumanji has 283 mln, I have no idea why you think that Jumanji may do 400 mln.

 

To put it simply:

 

321 / 103 = 3.21x multi

 

281 / 36 = 7.86x multi

 

Jumanji's legs are out of this world. If it keeps holding like this, 400M is absolutely on the table.

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

A movie can be very good/critically acclaimed and still underperform since the GA doesnt agree with critics sometimes. See Paddington 2: One of the best reviews-movies of all time basically tanking in North America

With is A cinemascore I do not think it is a case of GA not agreeing with critics, GA seem to love that movie when they see it, that the challenge people do not but ticket for a movie they like or not a ticket for movie they do not like, they pay before seeing the movie.

 

It is still more about genre/trailer/marketing then being good or not.

[mikee11]

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2018/01/13

 

They are expecting Star Wars to have the biggest jump of everyone listed Saturday, wonder if that will happen

[WrathOfHan]

6 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I see Shape getting a minimum of 12 Oscar nominations. While unlikely, it could potentially receive as many as 15.

 

Picture

Director

Screenplay

Editing

Score

Actress

Supporting Actor

Supporting Actress

Cinematography

Costume

Make Up

Sound Editing

Sound Mixing

Visual Effects

Production Design

FYI it's not on the makeup shortlist. Right now I'm going with 13:

 

Picture

Director

Actress

Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress

Original Screenplay

Cinematography

Score

Production Design

Costume Design

Visual Effects (think it's gonna pull an Ex Machina with the low budget)

Sound Editing

Sound Mixing

Edited January 14, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[JohnnyGossamer]

5 minutes ago, weresweresweres said:

After 26 days Wonder Woman had 325 mln and summer weekdays, after 26 days Jumanji has 283 mln, I have no idea why you think that Jumanji may do 400 mln.

This is being based on previous family friendly flick with exceptional legs like Night and the Museum and Sing. It's been explained here often but I'm sure someone else can and will explain it better than me. When looking at a movie's run it's best to find movies that performed similarly well/poorly/etc. during the same time of year with a near identical release pattern. The comparisons people seem to have found here is Night and the Museum  and then, maybe, Sing.

[BK007]

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Okay, that amuses me:)...

 

But if you ask why I post it?  B/c so many folks aren't in the US, and even many who are, don't know anything about it...and if you are gonna discuss DOM BO, and you don't know about this program (and about Cinemark's $8.99/1 reservable movie a month sub, but that has been so little effect because of MoviePass's current rapid dominance), you are missing a huge aspect of 2018 US BO effect.  Subscriptions have never been a "real" part of the US BO...now, by the end of 2018, they are likely to be the majority part...that is a monumental tidal wave change - as others have mentioned, it's not just MoviePass, which is here and dominating, that is getting in the game - Cinemark already dipped its toe (and will probably have to change), AMC swears it's coming, who knows with Regal, etc...

 

And knowing who those subscribers are (like MP is 75% millenial at the 1M point - unknown the breakdown at 1.5M) and what they are gonna wanna see is going to effect every box office weekend...some movies for the good...and some for the bad...  

 

I mean, the last 3 weekends, we've had repeated folks saying "I don't know how and why Jumanji/TGS are still going so high!  I don't know how Insidious popped THAT much this weekend - it's a mediocre 4th movie!  I don't know why Paddington missed so badly!"  And these folks seem to think it's unexplainable...

 

So, maybe it isn't...and that's why I'm posting...

 

Someone said before the weekend they'd start to believe more if Insidious popped some great legs (for its franchise), and it's now gonna beat 2 of the previous movies within a week, with 1 left to go, with only a 58% 2nd 3-day weekend drop (even with the snow)...

 

You aren’t posting it as a theory, you are speaking as if it is a fact- that’s what makes it annoying. 

 

There’s nothing to be smug about, but at least to me that is how you’re coming across with all the smilies punctuating what amounts to reaching guesswork. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, BK007 said:

You aren’t posting it as a theory, you are speaking as if it is a fact- that’s what makes it annoying. 

 

There’s nothing to be smug about, but at least to me that is how you’re coming across with all the smilies punctuating what amounts to reaching guesswork. 

See, now I should do frowns:(...I normally post with smiles all over the boards, but if you hate them, I'll try to cut back (I mean, talking box office should make one happy, so we should have happy posts:)...damn, I used one again!

 

 

Edited January 14, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

FYI it's not on the makeup shortlist. Right now I'm going with 14:

 

Picture

Director

Actress

Supporting Actor
Supporting Actress

Original Screenplay

Cinematography

Editing

Score

Production Design

Costume Design

Visual Effects (think it's gonna pull an Ex Machina with the low budget)

Sound Editing

Sound Mixing

Yeah. I thought about that after posting. It won't get a make up nod. It'll probably end up with 13. What's the record for nominations? 15?

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Yeah. I thought about that after posting. It won't get a make up nod. It'll probably end up with 13. What's the record for nominations? 15?

14 is the highest with All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land. Getting 14 nominations will come down to Editing IMO; I don't have it getting in there right now (current prediction is Dunkirk/Get Out/3B/Tonya/Baby Driver) (and yes, I edited my original post lol).

Edited January 14, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

Edit: Han beat me to it.

Edited January 14, 2018 by filmlover

[titanic2187]

5 minutes ago, mikee11 said:

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2018/01/13

 

They are expecting Star Wars to have the biggest jump of everyone listed Saturday, wonder if that will happen

yes, it's happening, the saturday estimate is quite accurate

[titanic2187]

12 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I see Shape getting a minimum of 12 Oscar nominations. While unlikely, it could potentially receive as many as 15.

 

Picture

Director

Screenplay

Editing

Score

Actress

Supporting Actor

Supporting Actress

Cinematography

Costume

Make Up , not happening 

Sound Editing

Sound Mixing

Visual Effects

Production Design

I am going with 10 with those category......if SOW win best picture, I wouldn't rule out for $100m total, it would be a the 1st fantasy to win BP since LOTR 3

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I am going with 10 with those category......if SOW win best picture, I wouldn't rule out for $100m total, it would be a the 1st fantasy to win BP since LOTR 3

I can't imagine it not getting one of the Supporting Actor/Actress spots. But, yeah, might not get most. I can't imagine it not getting a Costume Design nod either. I think it'll definitely get a nod for Best Editing as well. I'd say if pressed, Jenkins is more likely than Spencer to get an acting nod.

[Deja23]

17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

As for Molly's Game, I think it's done about as well as it was going to. Not pulling either a Miss Sloane or a Steve Jobs already makes it something of a win.

Molly’s Game is so good though. Wish it was doing better. I also expected more award recognition since it seemed like a weaker year overall.

[Blaze Heatnix]

Audience Scores on RT:

 

1) The Post - It started at 66% then dropped to 65% and now it's up to 70%

 

2) The Commuter - Was at 58% right after its release, then dropped to 52% and now it's up to 55%

 

3) Proud Mary - Started at 71%, dropped to 52% and now it's up to 64%

 

4) Paddington 2 - Still at 91% 

 

5) Insidious 4 - 51%

 

Meanwhile Star Wars keeps its 49%. 

[DAJK]

I listened to SOW's score last night, and it is magnificent. Some pieces you actually feel as though you are underwater. Haunting, sad, yet happy at the same time. I haven't even seen the movie and it was a roller coaster of emotions.

 

I would be surprised if it doesn't win best score 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Deja23 said:

Molly’s Game is so good though. Wish it was doing better. I also expected more award recognition since it seemed like a weaker year overall.

It's actually made a nice little guild showing but I can't see it getting a Best Picture nomination if Chastain isn't getting a Best Actress nom (which she isn't, unfortunately).

[weresweresweres]

15 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

To put it simply:

 

321 / 103 = 3.21x multi

 

281 / 36 = 7.86x multi

 

Jumanji's legs are out of this world. If it keeps holding like this, 400M is absolutely on the table.

Jumanji started on wed and during first 5 days it made 50 mln and after that 230 millions , wonder woman did 218 mln, so it's not a big diffrence. Wonder woman will have better weekdays and 5th weekend it was 4th july weekend and ww made 24 mln. Jumanji doesnt have a chance to make 24 mln next weekend.

[titanic2187]

Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

I can't imagine it not getting one of the Supporting Actor/Actress spots. But, yeah, might not get most. I can't imagine it not getting a Costume Design nod either. I think it'll definitely get a nod for Best Editing as well. I'd say if pressed, Jenkins is more likely than Spencer to get an acting nod.

In a year where female-centric film was so strong, their significant male co-stars will be all go to supporting actor, making the field be extra-competitive. As for supp. actress, if octavia didn't get nomination last year, i think her chance will be higher for this round, unless you are meryl, two nomination in 2 consecutive year is a bit hard.

 

And so far, the hype for SOW just isn't as near as La la land, I doubt that each branches in academy is going to full force on this 

 

[aabattery]

3 minutes ago, weresweresweres said:

Jumanji started on wed and during first 5 days it made 50 mln and after that 230 millions , wonder woman did 218 mln, so it's not a big diffrence. Wonder woman will have better weekdays and 5th weekend it was 4th july weekend and ww made 24 mln. Jumanji doesnt have a chance to make 24 mln next weekend.

 

If you wanna go by the 5 day, then:

 

281 / 50 = 5.62

 

So still a lot higher than WW. 

 

The closest comp for this run is NATM, which it has had better holds than at pretty much every turn. I'm on my phone so I can't get too detailed, but if it can hold a tiny bit better than NATM for the rest of its run, 400M is on the table.

 

No one's saying it's locked, but based on how it's been going so far it's definitely a plausible scenario (which is fucking crazy).