Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[a2k]

6 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

 

5.5=>6.0=>6.125 

 

Sub-25% FSS drop possible :

 

6.125

12.25 (+100%) // Sing was +111.8%

9.625 (-21.4%) // Sing was -20.4%

= 28.0 (-24.7%)

 

Edited January 13, 2018 by a2knet

[La Binoche]

24 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Greatest Showman and Jumanji having legs like 80s movies. Its insane.

[MaxAggressor]

Deadline revised their 4 day Weekend estimate for TLJ

 

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi(DIS), 3,090 theaters (-1142)/ $2.9M  Fri (-56%)/3-day: $11.5M (-51%)/4-day: $14M/Total:$594.2M/ Wk 5

[Brainbug]

21 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

While I don't expect it to drop much, I see IX staying dipping DOM and WW. Thinking $575M+ DOM and maybe $1.25B+ WW.

 

Imo, Episode IX will cruise past 650M DOM, following just the typical SW pattern. International is a wildcard like always but i think 700M OS can be expected for a minimum 1350M WW finish. From there it could easily go another 50-100M up.

[titanic2187]

TD	YD	Title (Click to View)	Studio	Daily Gross	% +/- YD / LW		Theaters / Avg		Gross To-Date	Day
1	1	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony	$6,125,000	+188%	-43%	3,849	$1,591	$262,260,909	24
2	-	The Post	Fox	$5,900,000	+3,993%	+1,088%	2,819	$2,093	$10,389,237	22
3	-	The Commuter	LGF	$4,560,000	-	-	2,892	$1,577	$4,560,000	1
4	3	Insidious: The Last Key	Uni.	$3,424,000	+161%	-73%	3,150	$1,087	$39,665,140	8
5	-	Proud Mary	SGem	$3,175,000	-	-	2,125	$1,494	$3,175,000	1
6	4	The Greatest Showman	Fox	$3,050,000	+137%	-27%	2,938	$1,038	$85,803,868	24
7	2	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$2,723,000	+62%	-58%	3,090	$881	$582,997,584	29
8	-	Paddington 2	WB	$2,400,000	-	-	3,702	$648	$2,400,000	1
9	6	Pitch Perfect 3	Uni.	$1,433,000	+128%	-57%	2,505	$572	$90,432,225	22
10	5	Darkest Hour	Focus	$1,245,000	+67%	-32%	1,693	$735	$32,460,552	52
11	7	Molly's Game	STX	$1,080,000	+86%	-53%	1,708	$632	$17,910,167	19
12	11	I, Tonya	Neon	$956,000	+212%	+24%	517	$1,849	$7,654,816	36
-	8	The Shape of Water	FoxS	$730,000	+63%	-14%	723	$1,010	$24,451,892	43
-	-	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	FoxS	$635,000	+280%	+242%	1,022	$621	$26,843,459	64
-	10	Coco	BV	$629,000	+103%	-59%	1,362	$462	$194,172,440	52
-	12	Ferdinand	Fox	$600,000	+130%	-74%	2,154	$279	$72,628,094	29
-	9	All the Money in the World	TriS	$345,000	-1%	-67%	1,408	$245	$22,171,060	19
-	-	Wonder	LGF	$291,000	+88%	-60%	970	$300	$127,679,574	57
-	-	Marshall	ORF	$134,619	+13,707%	+8,647%	378	$356	$9,618,807	92
-	-	Thor: Ragnarok	BV	$92,000	+138%	-41%	242	$380	$312,733,320	71
-	-	Downsizing	Par.	$83,000	-42%	-87%	412	$201	$23,881,239	22
-	-	Hostiles	ENTMP	$76,000	+96%	-12%	42	$1,810	$621,468	22
-	-	Condorito: La Pelicula	LGF	$53,000	-	-	153	$346	$53,000	1
-	-	Daddy's Home 2	Par.	$41,000	+69%	-71%	201	$204	$103,092,955	64

[a2k]

edit: dupe

                     RO                             TLJ

Fri	$6,084,974 +56.3% / -66.6% $461,386,328 / 22		$6,523,473 +50% / -65.7% $555,486,075 / 22
Sat	$9,558,458 +57.1% / -34.7% $470,944,786 / 23		$10,398,845 +59.4% / -47.8% $565,884,920 / 23
Sun	$6,420,138 -32.8% / -61.7% $477,364,924 / 24		$6,806,626 -34.5% / -49.8% $572,691,546 / 24
Mon	$1,759,491 -72.6% / -88.9% $479,124,415 / 25		$1,791,497 -73.7% / -87.5% $574,483,043 / 25
Tue	$2,532,047 +43.9% / -59.6% $481,656,462 / 26		$2,368,317 +32.2% / -69.9% $576,851,360 / 26
Wed	$1,736,301 -31.4% / -59% $483,392,763 / 27		$1,744,275 -26.3% / -66.6% $578,595,635 / 27
Thu	$1,698,971 -2.1% / -56.4% $485,091,734 / 28		$1,678,949 -3.7% / -61.4% $580,274,584 / 28
WK 4	$29,790,380		$31,311,982
WEEK 5
Fri	$3,260,705 +91.9% / -46.4% $488,352,439 / 29		Est. $2,723,000 +62.2% / -58.3% $582,997,584 / 29
Sat	$5,757,579 +76.6% / -39.8% $494,110,018 / 30		-
Sun	$4,449,905 -22.7% / -30.7% $498,559,923 / 31		-

Edited January 13, 2018 by a2knet

[Valonqar]

37 minutes ago, Noctis said:

I just don't want TLJ to pass DH2. 

Me neither. I'm hoping for OS collapse too so that it isn't a nail-biter but a comfortable win for DH2. I don't want any fudging!

[JohnnyGossamer]

18 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Imo, Episode IX will cruise past 650M DOM, following just the typical SW pattern. International is a wildcard like always but i think 700M OS can be expected for a minimum 1350M WW finish. From there it could easily go another 50-100M up.

Maybe. I'm not certain of that. The pattern was different then. The movies released every three years, while zero other Star Wars movies released in and around them. And, in each case, there was finality in the third entry in which people didn't expect another Star Wars feature for at least another decade or, possibly even, ever. Now, Episodes released every two years with a spin off sandwiched in between each. Again, I still see it doing HUGE business. I just don't see it matching Last Jedi DOM/OS/WW. Should come close though. But, the release pattern and saturation of Star Wars is very different now than it was with the OT and PT. Just my opinion of course...

 

Additionally, in a bizarre way, Jumanji has proven that movies don't really need to back from Star Wars. Hell, it released on Last Jedi's first Wednesday could well gross $375M+ DOM. Studios will not be as intimated as they were prior after Awakens and prior to Last Jedi. 

 

Actually, is Jumanji going to outpace Last Jedi when compared to Last Jedi's first Wednesday through the rest of its run v. Jumanji's OD Wednesday to  the end of its run? That alone proves there's no need to back away from Star Wars any longer. Not to mention, Episode IX will likely be just as frontloaded. That seems the new Star Wars trend, even over a holiday season.

Edited January 13, 2018 by JohnnyGossamer

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Maybe. I'm not certain of that. The pattern was different then. The movies released every three years, while zero other Star Wars movies released in and around them. And, in each case, there was finality in the third entry in which people didn't expect another Star Wars feature for at least another decade or, possibly even, ever. Now, Episodes released every two years with a spin off sandwiched in between each. Again, I still see it doing HUGE business. I just don't see it matching Last Jedi DOM/OS/WW. Should come close though. But, the release pattern and saturation of Star Wars is very different now than it was with the OT and PT. Just my opinion of course...

 

Additionally, in a bizarre way, Jumanji has proven that movies don't really need to back from Star Wars. Hell, it released on Last Jedi's first Wednesday could well gross $375M+ DOM. Studios will not be as intimated as they were prior after Awakens and prior to Last Jedi. 

 

Completely understand where you're coming from. Though i definetly expect Disney to push the notion of Episode IX beeing the final entry in the Main Saga (Skywalkers) as we know it - since the Rian Johnson trilogy features all new storys and characters and the spin-offs are just spin-offs.

 

Also, the combo of JW and IO in June 2015 should have given the studios a hint that big fat movies can co-exist perfectly fine next to each other. As long as you give the audience what they want, they will come. Doesnt matter if a week before that another gigantic movie opened.

[TwoMisfits]

31 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So TGS is 5 for the 4 day, not 6, like the chart says...and if it beat TLJ yesterday by .2M, they really think TLJ will outdraw it with families this weekend?  I'd say TGS might have the 4 day, and not just the 3 day over it...

 

And the chart is misleading...3 day is:

1. Jumanji

2. The Post

3. The Commuter

4. TGS

5. TLJ

 

 

And it wasn't even right, b/c Insidious got crazily skipped...so, Deadline's final guess at the 3 day is...

 

1. Jumanji

2. The Post

3. The Commuter

4. Insidious

5. TGS

6. TLJ

7. Paddington

 

http://deadline.com/2018/01/the-commuter-proud-mary-jumanji-paddington-2-mlk-weekend-box-office-1202241724/

 

And the "Moviepass-audience-friendly" Insidious does actually beat TLJ for the 3 day...I think no one thought that possible (except maybe me before the weekend?:)...

[MaxAggressor]

pro.boxoffice explains why business is down this weekend http://pro.boxoffice.com/mlk-weekend-the-post-paddington2-commuter-proud-mary-jumanji-star-wars-winter-storm-hunter/

 

Winter Storm Hunter appears to be having a larger-than-expected impact across areas of the midwest, southeast, and northeast to begin this holiday weekend as Friday estimates for a number of key titles came in well below expectations. The hope is that much of the weather in these often-overlooked areas of the country — which are less equipped to deal with winter weather than major northern cities — will clear up throughout the weekend, but for now projections are even more volatile than usual as a significant portion of the middle-to-eastern United States has been immobilized by snow and ice.

[titanic2187]

I am still remember a tons of people said that, carrie fisher last appearance in TLJ could boost its gross, but when TLJ look to drop 33% from its predecessor and follow SW trilogies 's pattern.

 

Many factors that worked in favour of TLJ didn't get materialized, carrie fisher+Holiday+ 90% critically acclaimed RT score + so called A cinemascore + movie pass+ higher internal opening weekend multiplier than TFA.......

 

The raw gross for TLJ is definitely a success, but the legs is truly disappointing......  

[John Marston]

Episode 9 will decrease more. There is no hook

[redfirebird2008]

16 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Maybe. I'm not certain of that. The pattern was different then. The movies released every three years, while zero other Star Wars movies released in and around them. And, in each case, there was finality in the third entry in which people didn't expect another Star Wars feature for at least another decade or, possibly even, ever. Now, Episodes released every two years with a spin off sandwiched in between each. Again, I still see it doing HUGE business. I just don't see it matching Last Jedi DOM/OS/WW. Should come close though. But, the release pattern and saturation of Star Wars is very different now than it was with the OT and PT. Just my opinion of course...

 

All of that plus the Vader factor makes it less likely to continue the "traditional" pattern of the 3rd Star Wars movies. Let's say TLJ finishes at $625m. I think Episode 9 will finish within 5% of this number in either direction, so a range of $594m to $656m. I don't think $650m is locked by any means. 

[MCKillswitch123]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

How many direct sequels opened over 85 m in December?

It's not over 85M, but The Desolation Of Smaug opened close to that with 73.6M; while The Return Of The King (unadjusted for inflation) did 124.1M for the 5-day opening, 72.6M for the 3-day. Smaug had a 3.51x multiplier, while ROTK got a 3.04x multiplier for its 5-day opening, which equates to - stripping away the ~51.5M it did on its opening Wednesday + Thursday from DOM total - a 4.49x multiplier from its 3-day opening (leading to a 325.5M DOM income, again without the 51.5M it did on its first two days).

 

And again, The Force Awakens was a sequel too and it had the biggest opening of all time, yet still managed a 3.78x multiplier. And even movies as completely DOA as Downsizing and Father Figures have gotten 3x multipliers from their 4-day openings.

 

Their complaints about The Last Jedi's underwhelming multiplier aren't necessarily dumbfounded.

[Jandrew]

Shouldnt be surprised that America is dumb enough to give Paddington only $2.4, look at out current state.

 

At the same time it is disappointing that we still have a hard time breaking out and embracing things that arent American. Hell Despacito didnt break out until they slapped  Americanly-marketable Bieber on it after all.

[titanic2187]

1 minute ago, Jandrew said:

Shouldnt be surprised that America is dumb enough to give Paddington only $2.4, look at out current state.

 

At the same time it is disappointing that we still have a hard time breaking out and embracing things that arent American. Hell Despacito didnt break out until they slapped  Americanly-marketable Bieber on it after all.

I think it's unfair to blame american, american critics have done their part to fuel the movie, and the theaters across nation are welcoming its release....

 

It's competition after all i think, too many family friendly movie in play.....and meanwhile even the live action movies now are greatly family-friendly.....

[JohnnyGossamer]

12 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I am still remember a tons of people said that, carrie fisher last appearance in TLJ could boost its gross, but when TLJ look to drop 33% from its predecessor and follow SW trilogies 's pattern.

 

Many factors that worked in favour of TLJ didn't get materialized, carrie fisher+Holiday+ 90% critically acclaimed RT score + so called A cinemascore + movie pass+ higher internal opening weekend multiplier than TFA.......

 

The raw gross for TLJ is definitely a success, but the legs is truly disappointing......  

And, this is exactly why I think the ceiling for IX is what whatever TLJ finishes with DOM/OS/WW. I won't get into why the Skywalker Saga ending may not be that effective as a marketing idea. But, obviously, so far as we know, due to her passing, CF will not appear in this one. 

[a2k]

17 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I am still remember a tons of people said that, carrie fisher last appearance in TLJ could boost its gross, but when TLJ look to drop 33% from its predecessor and follow SW trilogies 's pattern.

 

Many factors that worked in favour of TLJ didn't get materialized, carrie fisher+Holiday+ 90% critically acclaimed RT score + so called A cinemascore + movie pass+ higher internal opening weekend multiplier than TFA.......

 

The raw gross for TLJ is definitely a success, but the legs is truly disappointing......  

If it does less than 620 (which is possible as RO's legs off the MLK 4-day multiplier give it 620.1) it will have failed to add 400 after a 220 ow.

 

Top 5 Post-OW cumes of 2017:

220 + 397-400 TLJ (using 617-620 dom)

175 + 329 BATB

53* + 312-322 JUMANJI (using 365-375 dom)

103 + 310 WONDR

146 + 243 GOTG2

 

*5-day ow

 

Edited January 13, 2018 by a2knet

[titanic2187]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

If it does less than 620 (which is possible as RO's legs off the MLK 4-day multiplier give it 620.1) it will have failed to add 400 after a 220 ow.

 

Top 5 Post-OW cumes of 2017:

220 + 397-400 TLJ (using 617-620 dom)

175 + 329 BATB

53* + 312-322 JUMANJI (using 365-375 dom)

103 + 310 WONDR

146 + 243 GOTG2

 

*5-day ow

 

avatar add 683m after its opening weekend, it is bigger than the entire gross of TLJ

Carry over effect is significant in box office market, when a movie open big, no matter how bad it drop, no way it will have low raw/absolute number.....

 

Here is why the absolute gross never taken into consideration when we interpret its legs....

Unless you want to claim that, get out that total of 176m, with just 33m opening, had much much bad legs than TLJ, the legs was only 142m