Weekend Thread | Estimates (per DHD) ~ MR:TDC 23M, J 15.8M, H 9.8M, TGS 9.3M, TP 8.7M, 12S/DoT 7.9M, TSOW 5.7M, P2 5.5M, TLJ 4M, TBOEM 3.6M

[baumer]

I'm happy to see I, Tonya have a good hold.  It probably won't get the oscar boost other films will, but with Robbie getting a best actress nom and Janney getting one as well, hopefully this gets enough people interested in the film.  It's sits with 18.7 mill right now, maybe it will have enough to get to 25 million.  Too bad it got snubbed for a best picture nod.

[baumer]

Pretty impressive totals for Lady Bird and Darkest Hour.

[baumer]

Not a really revolutionary thought here but it seems as though TLJ behaved more like a regular blockbuster than a Star Wars movie.  It's going to end up with about a 2.8X.  It looks bad because it opened in December, of course.  But when the final numbers come in and it does 620-625 and has a 2.8X, years from now, it won't be looked upon so poorly.  My guess is that if any other film was to open to 200 million in the same slot as SW, it would perform much more like TLJ instead of TFA.  

 

But....who cares, right?

[marveldcfox]

Jumanji beating Spiderman homecoming.....hahaha. MCU fans must be seething in anger. Only winner in this whole thing is Tom Rothman. 

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

Jumanji beating Spiderman homecoming.....hahaha. MCU fans must be seething in anger. Only winner in this whole thing is Tom Rothman. 

After the 'MCU bailed out Sony with SMH' vibe (which was justified imo) would be nice if Jumanji beat SMH, GOTG2 and BP 

 

Edited January 27, 2018 by a2knet

[marveldcfox]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

After the 'MCU bailed out Sony with SMH' vibe (which was justified imo) would be nice if Jumanji beat SMH, GOTG2 and BP 

 

Smh and gotg2 sure. But BP should do no less than 450. Tbh 600 should be the target.

[aabattery]

10 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

Smh and gotg2 sure. But BP should do no less than 450. Tbh 600 should be the target.

 

You people are going insane with these BP predicts.

 

No less than FOUR HUNDRED AND FIFTY FUCKING MILLION? SIX HUNDRED MILLION THE TARGET?! MADNESS! Look at what you're typing here!

[baumer]

If BP opens to 150 million, I don' think it will get a 3X.  It's a Marvel movie, so maybe more like a 2.7 or so.

 

No original MCU film has opened to 150 million, in fact the highest any of them opened to was Iron Man's 98 million.  Yo say this will do 150 OW is a bit of a stretch, imo.  

 

I could see something like 135/375

[George Parr]

Yeah, making statements like "no less than 450m" is getting rather excessive. It's not 100% impossible for the movie to get there, but there have been only two Marvel movies to top that mark, and the second one of those wasn't that far ahead of it (459m). So setting 450m as the low end, when only the two main Avengers movies have even managed to top that mark, sounds a bit too much.

 

Yes, the movie is of particular interest to black audiences, which could lead to some unexpected results, but Wonder Woman also had some special interest among the female audience, and that one "only" made 400m, which makes setting expectations at 450m as the minimum an obvious choice for disappointment afterwards, even if the movie would do exceptionally well. Think about it, if the movie would make 350m, that would still be more than any first movie of a single hero among the entire MCU.

Edited January 27, 2018 by George Parr

[Kraken]

lol at BP predictions. Marvel fans are delusional.

[XO21]

57 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

Jumanji beating Spiderman homecoming.....hahaha. MCU fans must be seething in anger. Only winner in this whole thing is Tom Rothman. 

Why would they...Spidey 6th movie made 334/ 880. Trying to spin it like it’s bad 

[MrGlass2]

You have to remain realistic about BP, $400M is the floor.

[titanic2187]

6 hours ago, filmlover said:

96% increase is quite good. Its PTA is gonna go up quite a bit from last weekend.

High PTA wouldn't make theater to keep you around, but big raw number,and 96% up is in fact lower than last friday's 107%, hope % will get higher than after revision

[Krissykins]

It’ll be interesting to see if Black Panther “breaks out” for Marvel with a higher African American audience than usual, or if it opens to the standard $100m. 

[a2k]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

It’ll be interesting to see if Black Panther “breaks out” for Marvel with a higher African American audience than usual, or if it opens to the standard $100m. 

DP, SS like 130-135 ow, which also happens to be 50% more than DS's ow, is a great benchmark for BP with all this hype. It's tracking at 100-120 are folks here mostly expect it to beat that. 130-135 ow / 2.7-3.3x gives 351-446 dom.

 

Sounds optimistic to have 351 as the floor but that's the vibe innit?

[WrathOfHan]

Holy fuck, Fox has 40% of the weekend box office  

GET THAT 10M, HOSTILES!

Fantastic increase for SOW. Given how many theaters have reduced showings for it, next week could be a sub-20% drop when it gains full screens

Very good increases for 3B and Lady Bird too

I was hoping Phantom Thread could increase a bit more, but the PTA is still super strong to warrant another expansion next week

Strong hold for DH

Weaksauce for CMBYN. How are you going to spin this one @filmlover?  

 

[That One Girl]

I’ve been predicting 180M OW for Black Panther for a while now and see no reason to change it

[Mojoguy]

Jumanji beating Spiderman homecoming.....hahaha. MCU fans must be seething in anger. Only winner in this whole thing is Tom Rothman.

Sony is happy since both movies are made by Sony.

[filmlover]

18 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Holy fuck, Fox has 40% of the weekend box office  

GET THAT 10M, HOSTILES!

Fantastic increase for SOW. Given how many theaters have reduced showings for it, next week could be a sub-20% drop when it gains full screens

Very good increases for 3B and Lady Bird too

I was hoping Phantom Thread could increase a bit more, but the PTA is still super strong to warrant another expansion next week

Strong hold for DH

Weaksauce for CMBYN. How are you going to spin this one @filmlover?  

 

It's disappointing but then a lot of places did it cut it down to one show a day. I do think SPC sorta botched the entire expansion but oh well. $15M total is solid for this kind of movie (especially when it's already in the black).

 

Phantom Thread also held fine all things considered (it already received a heavily-advertised wide release last week). After seeing it last night, it also is definitely a big city film, but $20-25M total is perfectly acceptable for it.

[Avatree]

Black Panther will open to 75M and there's nothing you can do about it, fanboys.