Weekend Thread | Estimates (per DHD) ~ MR:TDC 23M, J 15.8M, H 9.8M, TGS 9.3M, TP 8.7M, 12S/DoT 7.9M, TSOW 5.7M, P2 5.5M, TLJ 4M, TBOEM 3.6M

[Plain Old Tele]

12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Behold the power of Batman and Amazing Amy.

 

The power of Magua.

[a2k]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

The digital release is in 2-3 weeks, so I imagine it might start dropping a bit more then. I have no clue WTF Fox is thinking releasing it on Blu-Ray 75 days after theatrical.

They weren't expecting the 6th weekend to be anywhere close to 10m. Jumanji's 6th weekend (16.5 deadline) will be 54% down from the ow (36.2) with great legs. If TGS had followed Jumanji's already stellar pattern it would have been looking at 4m this weekend opposed to 10m, while 2-3m would have been good too.

[Maxmoser3]

$24 million debut wouldnt be too bad ñ. Should do $11-$13 million 2nd weekend, and make $55-$60 million domestic. If these numbers hold up and overseas should it with north of $200 million WW

[MaxAggressor]

1	Avatar	Fox	$34,944,081	4.7%	3,141	$11,125	$749,766,139	12/18/09
2	Titanic	Par.	$25,238,720	4.2%	2,771	$9,108	$600,788,188	12/19/97
3	Frozen	BV	$19,575,525	4.9%	3,318	$5,900	$400,738,009	11/27/13
4	The Sixth Sense	BV	$16,511,464	5.6%	2,782	$5,935	$293,506,292	8/6/99

 

Jumanji 2 will break into the Top 5 in the list of highest grossing 6th weekends if that 16.5 million number holds (could challenge for #4).  

 

Right nao Jumanji 2 is dropping less than NATM (-20.4%) this weekend. J2 is also ahead in comparison with previous weekend w.r.t NATM.

 

Weekend 3 - +56.82%

Weekend 4 - +63.74%

Weekend 5 - +62.4%

Weekend 6 - +72.68%

 

NATM multiplier from here on out gets it to 390.97 million.

[a2k]

13 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

$24 million debut wouldnt be too bad ñ. Should do $11-$13 million 2nd weekend, and make $55-$60 million domestic. If these numbers hold up and overseas should it with north of $200 million WW

200+ ww looks very safe me thinks:

55 dom + 35 china + 140 os-china (-30% from 200 os-china of mz2) = 230 ww

 

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

Right nao Jumanji 2 is dropping less than NATM (-20.4%) this weekend. J2 is also ahead in comparison with previous weekend w.r.t NATM.

 

Weekend 3 - +56.82%

Weekend 4 - +63.74%

Weekend 5 - +62.4%

Weekend 6 - +72.68%

 

NATM multiplier from here on out gets it to 390.97 million.

NATM added 34.01 more after a 9.56 6th weekend. That would give Jumanji 59 more after a 16.5 weekend for 338+59 = 397 dom.

And if the weekend comes out to be 15.5 instead, then 337+55=392 dom with NATM legs.

 

Looks like 385-405 dom imo.

Edited January 26, 2018 by a2knet

[DAJK]

Wherever I'm looking Maze Runner is selling extremely well for all of its regular shows, with quite a few near sell-outs for the early evening. But its IMAX shows are an empty wasteland

[Claire of Themyscira]

Am sad am not working for a week.

 

Wanted to sway people to see Hostiles.

 

[MaxAggressor]

22 minutes ago, a2knet said:

NATM added 34.01 more after a 9.56 6th weekend. That would give Jumanji 59 more after a 16.5 weekend for 338+59 = 397 dom.

  

 

I realized my mistake. I used the 335.6 million total that I posted a few pages back and I didn't it update with the additional 2.5 million as per Deadline's most recent update. Plus I wrongly put 3.355 multiplier in place of 3.554.  

Quote

 

And if the weekend comes out to be 15.5 instead, then 337+55=392 dom with NATM legs.

 

Looks like 385-405 dom imo.

 

Do you think J2 will continue to do well in mid Feb and beyond?? NATM pulled in valuable numbers till the first couple week in April. Will J2 be able to replicate that?? But in any case, that feels like a good range atm.

Edited January 26, 2018 by MaxAggressor

[MovieMan89]

46 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The digital release is in 2-3 weeks, so I imagine it might start dropping a bit more then. I have no clue WTF Fox is thinking releasing it on Blu-Ray 75 days after theatrical.

I will be seriously pissed if they go through with that date. They're literally costing themselves millions at the box office. 

[Blankments]

@WrathOfHan i am forever alone:

 

8x:

 

Annihilation: Blade Runner 2049, Happy Death Day, Blade Runner 2049 Round 2, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3, The Post, Call Me by Your Name, The Commuter

 

7x:

 

Pacific Rim: Uprising: Blade Runner 2049, Blade Runner 2049 Round 2, Geostorm, Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2, Thor: Ragnarok Round 3, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Ready Player One: It, Blade Runner 2049, It Round 2, Justice League, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3, The Post

A Wrinkle in Time: Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3, Coco Round 4, The Post, Coco Round 5

Sherlock Gnomes: Wonder, Coco, Coco Round 3, Coco Round 4, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Coco Round 5, Paddington 2

 

6x:

 

Black Panther: The Hitman’s Bodyguard, mother!, Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2, Thor: Ragnarok Round 3, The Commuter

 

5x:

 

Early Man: Wonder, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 2, Wonder Round 2, Coco Round 4, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Isle of Dogs: The LEGO Ninjago Movie, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Shape of Water, Downsizing, Paddington 2

Incredibles 2: Coco, Coco Round 3, Coco Round 4, Coco Round 5, Paddington 2

Peter Rabbit: Coco, Coco Round 4, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Coco Round 5, Paddington 2

 

4x:

 

Alpha: Dunkirk Round 2, Geostorm, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 2, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 4

Avengers: Infinity War: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 2, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 4

Maze Runner: The Death Cure: Happy Death Day, Geostorm, Thor: Ragnarok Round 3, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Rampage: Justice League, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 2, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 4, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Death Wish: Detroit, Annabelle: Creation, Terminator 2: Judgment Day 3D, The Commuter

Tomb Raider: Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Geostorm, Murder on the Orient Express, The Commuter

Red Sparrow: Kingsman: The Golden Circle, The Snowman, The Post, The Commuter

 

3x:

 

Deadpool 2: Logan, Logan Round 2, Justice League

Duck Duck Goose: My Little Pony: The Movie, Wonder, Coco

Fifty Shades Freed: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Shape of Water, All the Money in the World

Blockers: The Disaster Artist, The Disaster Artist Round 2, Downsizing

A Quiet Place: Justice League, The Shape of Water, Downsizing

Alita: Battle Angel: Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 2, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 3, Star Wars: The Last Jedi Round 4

The 15:17 to Paris: The Shape of Water, All the Money in the World, Call Me by Your Name

Love, Simon: The Greatest Showman, The Post, Call Me by Your Name

The Miracle Season: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Paddington 2

Winchester: The Disaster Artist Round 2, The Shape of Water, The Commuter

Sicario 2: Soldado: All the Money in the World, The Post, The Commuter

 

2x:

 

Polaroid: Wind River, Happy Death Day

The New Mutants: Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2

Game Night: The Disaster Artist, The Disaster Artist Round 2

Lean on Pete: The Shape of Water, All the Money in the World

Samson: All the Money in the World, The Greatest Showman

Mortal Engines: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, The Commuter

 

1x:

 

The Current War: Wind River

Super Troopers 2: Kingsman: The Golden Circle

Thoroughbreds: The Disaster Artist

Chappaquiddick: Downsizing

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms: The Greatest Showman

Sgt. Stubby: Coco Round 4

Gringo: Molly’s Game

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation: Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!: The Post

Tully: Call Me by Your Name

A Fantastic Woman: Call Me by Your Name

Teen Titans Go! To The Movies!: Paddington 2

Smallfoot: Paddington 2

Acrimony: The Commuter

[MovieMan89]

A couple weeks ago I said my pipe dream would be J hitting 400 and TGS hitting 200. What if it's not such a pipe dream after all?

[Eric Duncan]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Behold the power of Batman and Amazing Amy.

AHEM

[MovieMan89]

27 minutes ago, a2knet said:

NATM added 34.01 more after a 9.56 6th weekend. That would give Jumanji 59 more after a 16.5 weekend for 338+59 = 397 dom.

And if the weekend comes out to be 15.5 instead, then 337+55=392 dom with NATM legs.

 

Looks like 385-405 dom imo.

The biggest hurdle there is that NATM inexplicably dropped only 10% the weekend before VD weekend. J definitely won't be doing that, especially since 50 Shades, Peter Rabbit, and the 15:17 to Paris open that weekend so there will actually be some appealing new releases. 

[Fancyarcher]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

A couple weeks ago I said my pipe dream would be J hitting 400 and TGS hitting 200. What if it's not such a pipe dream after all?

Looks like the impossible may not be impossible anymore. Jumanji doing 400m wouldn't surprise me at this point. It's showing no signs of slowing down. 

[Mojoguy]

Looks like the impossible may not be impossible anymore. Jumanji doing 400m wouldn't surprise me at this point. It's showing no signs of slowing down.

People were saying The Last Jedi was going to kill Jumanji, but it ended up being the reverse a little, I imagine Jumanji eat away some of TLJ's total.

[MovieMan89]

Jumanji+TGS are basically going to equal TLJ admissions. 

[Pinacolada]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

Hostiles doing 8M doesn't seem that bad. I mean, it won't make back a 50M budget, but considering how bad the PTA's were initially and the general laughter at going this wide, it isn't doing as poorly as it could have. may have been thinking, he was still onto something in saying that it would be higher than a lot of expectations. While not the crazy high number @WrathOfHan may have been thinking, he was still onto something in saying that it would be higher than a lot of expectations.

Scott Cooper said the budget was 39 million

[Mojoguy]

Jumanji+TGS are basically going to equal TLJ admissions.

Yep, I imagine having a 380m-400m Jumanji open 5 days after TLJ was going to eat away at TLJ even if TLJ had been better received by fans and the public.

[Alli]

Jumanji is a beast. What went right? This really connected with the audience