Weekend Thread | Estimates per BOM ~ BP 65.7M, RS 17M, DW 13M, GN 10.7M, PR 10M, ANL 5.65M, J:WTTJ 4.5M, FSF 3.3M, TGS 2.68M

[WrathOfHan]

I think Searchlight's 2018 slate could top the ~170M from last year's releases:

 

Can You Ever Forgive Me?: 80M

The Old Man and the Gun: 50M

The Favourite: 40M

Isle of Dogs: 35M

The Aftermath: 15M

Tolkien: 10M

Total: 230M

[Alli]

Very strong opening OS for RS:

 

Fox is offering a comp to The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo, an older film with better known source material, but a lesser known star. Red Sparrow is 28.3% above that movie at open, in the same markets and at today’s exchange rates.

 

Taiwan gave over to the Sparrow with $2.4M including Fox’s 5th biggest opening day of all time. Germany was the lead launch at $2.6M for No. 2 and 15% above The Bourne Legacy. The UK came in next at $2.58M and No. 2, although harsh weather was a factor. Spain had a good $2M start on 404 screens at No. 1.

 

 

I think it should do close to 150M OS

Edited March 4, 2018 by Alli

[Alexiswills12]

Elsewhere, BP is the highest-grossing movie of all time in West and East Africa; the top MCU title in the Netherlands; and has run past the lifetime of Thor 3 in Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam, demonstrating the strong appetite in South East Asia despite initial concerns.

 

 

Woohoo. The Netherlands. It’s where I live.

[XO21]

5 minutes ago, Alli said:

Very strong opening OS for RS:

 

Fox is offering a comp to The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo, an older film with better known source material, but a lesser known star. Red Sparrow is 28.3% above that movie at open, in the same markets and at today’s exchange rates.

 

Taiwan gave over to the Sparrow with $2.4M including Fox’s 5th biggest opening day of all time. Germany was the lead launch at $2.6M for No. 2 and 15% above The Bourne Legacy. The UK came in next at $2.58M and No. 2, although harsh weather was a factor. Spain had a good $2M start on 404 screens at No. 1.

 

 

I think it should do close to 150M OS

Yep..I hope it has good holds, the weather in Europe was pretty brutal this week/weekend.

[SLAM!]

Black Panther continues to be strong. I hope it can go even further than it already has.

 

Red Sparrow's gross is disappointing. But if it gains a following, maybe it can play like last year's The Foreigner, at least domestically.

 

I thought Death Wish would have gone under $5M so this at least feels like a win to me. Though I am expecting sharp decreases next weekend.

 

Good hold for Game Night. It seems like a nice little modest comedy success for Warner Bros.

 

In the case of Peter Rabbit: I went to McDonalds to get a breakfast sandwich today, and I saw that the film was the theme of the toys that come with kid's happy meals. That's when it hit me: if you release an appealing family/kids film at a time where there are little to no family competition, you should not be surprised when the film is able to prolong its advertising reach, and you should not be surprised when the film gains very good holds at the box office. I'm happy for it.

 

Annihilation deserves a lot better, but all things considered, the percent decrease was less than 50%. That's a small sign of audience engagement. Hopefully the film can get a 3x multiplier from its opening weekend, but at the very least, it should end up at least matching Ex Machina's total gross.

 

I can't say anything I've already said for Jumanji and Greatest Showman. Those successes are old news at this point.

 

Fifty Shades' percentage decrease leads me to believe I was ever-so-slightly right about Red Sparrow's impact. But the film is on its fourth weekend, and it has undoubtedly been the subject of bad word of mouth, so it would not have made a difference.

 

And I am also happy that Every Day was able to stay on the top ten for another weekend. Hopefully it can still reach $10M.

[Porthos]

Black Panther is rightly getting all of the discussion, but as a couple of people have noted Peter Rabbit has an insane hold this weekend.

 

How insane?  The go-to comp for it for many was Gnomeo and Juliet (I know, I know, just roll with it).  

 

Entering this weekend it had been about 3m behind and looking to settle around 95m or so (Gnomeo and Juliet was distributed by Disney and after a valiant attempt to keep it in theaters long enough, it settled for 99.97m).

 

Peter Rabbit made up that 3m in one weekend, which is not easy at all for a film of this size at this point in its run.  I won't go as far as to say this is now locked for 100m as there is a lot of screen competition coming, including AWiT which is in a similar enough demo and Sherlock Gnomes (now distributed by Paramount) soon after that.

 

But if it continues to do gangbusters this week, it might not matter.

 

Just goes to show there can still be surprises even with a mega-ultra blockbuster like Black Panther on the scene. 

 

===

 

I will say I am slightly skeptical of the number reported by Sony for being at 10m on the nose.  But that's just quibbling as it's going to pass G&J on either Sunday, or Tuesday by the latest. 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, slambros said:

Fifty Shades' percentage decrease leads me to believe I was ever-so-slightly right about Red Sparrow's impact. But the film is on its fourth weekend, and it has undoubtedly been the subject of bad word of mouth, so it would not have made a difference.

If it holds, Freed will turn out to have a better drop than Darker did on its fourth weekend (-53.7 vs -54.3). So if anything it was just Friday which was affected and Freed rebounded to stay very slightly ahead of Darker when it comes to drops.

 

Haven't run the numbers, but it should mean that 100m is still in play, if barely.

 

 

[Noctis]

50Freed just had a $3.3m weekend and hit $95.6m. It's passing $100m. Even if it does it by the skin of its teeth, it'll do it. Fantastic retention rate from the second film.

[Jonwo]

I do wonder how Red Sparrow would have fared had they released in November? I suspect it wouldn't have done much better. It's a decent film but a tough watch

[HesAPooka]

45 minutes ago, Alli said:

Very strong opening OS for RS:

 

Fox is offering a comp to The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo, an older film with better known source material, but a lesser known star. Red Sparrow is 28.3% above that movie at open, in the same markets and at today’s exchange rates.

 

Taiwan gave over to the Sparrow with $2.4M including Fox’s 5th biggest opening day of all time. Germany was the lead launch at $2.6M for No. 2 and 15% above The Bourne Legacy. The UK came in next at $2.58M and No. 2, although harsh weather was a factor. Spain had a good $2M start on 404 screens at No. 1.

 

 

I think it should do close to 150M OS

Do you know which markets it didn't open in? IMDB says it opened everywhere but Russia, France, and Japan? If that's true it opened in almost all markets this weekend to 26m. Can't see that making 150m.

[Alli]

8 minutes ago, HesAPooka said:

Do you know which markets it didn't open in? IMDB says it opened everywhere but Russia, France, and Japan? If that's true it opened in almost all markets this weekend to 26m. Can't see that making 150m.

Red Sparrow has another 10 international markets to launch through May including Japan, France and Russia.

 

http://deadline.com/2018/03/black-panther-third-weekend-red-sparrow-death-wish-operation-red-sea-detective-chinatown-2-international-box-office-1202310277/

 

 

Edited March 4, 2018 by Alli

[HesAPooka]

2 minutes ago, Alli said:

Red Sparrow has another 10 international markets to launch through May including Japan, France and Russia.

 

http://deadline.com/2018/03/black-panther-third-weekend-red-sparrow-death-wish-operation-red-sea-detective-chinatown-2-international-box-office-1202310277/

So 110-130m seems more likely and that's with a 3-3.5 multiplier.

[Alli]

2 minutes ago, HesAPooka said:

So 110-130m seems more likely and that's with a 3-3.5 multiplier.

Possible. Anyway, a strong performance

[YM!]

I’m kind of happy for Peter Rabbit. Nice to see Sony have another franchise, and SPA needed a $100M+ DOM movie. 

 

Also seeing Annihilation today in a hour

[Krissykins]

Fantastic for Black Panther, Game Night, Jumanji, Peter Rabbit and Greatest Showman.

 

Fifty Shades only $40m behind the last film worldwide so far. 

 

Not surprised by the <$20m opening for Red Sparrow. Good international opening, but with that $69m budget it really doesn’t matter. 

 

Seems ok for Death Wish. Haven’t seen the trailer. 

[HesAPooka]

4 minutes ago, Alli said:

Possible. Anyway, a strong performance

Would give it a total of 155-175 or a multiplier of 2.2-2.5. If this was Joy or something else original I'd say that's strong, but for something based on a popular book with a built in audience that's pretty mediocre/weak.

[Alli]

Just now, HesAPooka said:

Would give it a total of 155-175 or a multiplier of 2.2-2.5. If this was Joy or something else original I'd say that's strong, but for something based on a popular book with a built in audience that's pretty mediocre/weak.

I don't think the book is known Os.

 

JLaw's big in the US, but she hasn't headlined many original movies. The numbers show potential OS

[KJsooner]

Just fucking unbelievable what BP is doing. People last summer were all like WW’s record is going to stand for a long time, and here BP ran over it like it was nothing in 2 weeks. Cant believe it blew right past AOU, CW, and TDKR too.

[ROCKnROLLA]

Any info on the BP Japan OW totals yet?

[KJsooner]

BP has double the gross of JL.