Weekend Thread | Estimates: AQP 50M, RP1 25M, CKBLK 21.4M, BP 8.4M,

[filmlover]

The trailer for Truth or Dare got laughed off the screen before my sold out showing of Blockers last night.

[Zakiyyah6]

Truth or Dare looks terrible. 

[Boxofficerules]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

This is the end of Universal. Blumhouse should re-think their contract. Truth or Dare is gonna flop next week.

It will probably still make profit due to low budget, I can’t imagine Blumhouse ending a deal with Universal due to ONE film underperforming. 

I still think they should have moved it’s release after Rampage moved and A Quiet Place started getting good buzz. Although maybe they know T&D is a stinker and just want it out. There was a few screenings last week and I’ve been reading awful things on Facebook and letterboxed.

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Boxofficerules said:

It will probably still make profit due to low budget, I can’t imagine Blumhouse ending a deal with Universal due to ONE film underperforming. 

I still think they should have moved it’s release after Rampage moved and A Quiet Place started getting good buzz. Although maybe they know T&D is a stinker and just want it out. There was a few screenings last week and I’ve been reading awful things on Facebook and letterboxed.

When people who go to screenings don't hype up your movie, that's when you know it's really really bad. 

[Valonqar]

AQP can't repeat GO cause GO was deemed so important that AMPAS put the genre bias aside and embraced it. AQP doesn't carry zeitgeist importance value to defy the odds. But it could be noticed in Original Script and techs and give Blunt a boost for Poppins nom (aka banner year). 

 

Amazing movie, Oscars have never been the real proof for greatness anyway.

Edited April 7, 2018 by Valonqar

[Zakiyyah6]

I don't even see it getting a screenplay nod. Not saying that it doesn't deserve one but that I don't see it happening. The racial satire angle absolutely did help Get Out get deserved best picture, screenplay, actor and director nominations. I would love to be wrong about AQP by the way. As always if it shows up during the precursor award shows I will be pleasantly surprised. 

[grey ghost]

10 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

AQP can't repeat GO cause GO was deemed so important that AMPAS put the genre bias aside and embraced it. AQP doesn't carry zeitgeist importance value to defy the odds. But it could be noticed in Original Script and techs and give Blunt a boost for Poppins nom (aka banner year). 

 

Amazing movie, Oscars have never been the real proof for greatness anyway.

AQP may be good but is it as groundbreaking as Get Out?

 

And if you think Get Out has some evil agenda that doesn't deserve to be addressed then that's just a personal take with little basis in reality.

[a2k]

RPO slowing down a bit in China. 240-250 seems tough and 220-230 is the new target. Dom is going as expected though.

 

Should at least do,

145 dom (using 22.5 2nd weekend and adding a very average 2.25x * 22.5 more to it's cume)

215 china (minimum)

185 current os-china (2.8x the ow)

15 japan (folks reckon it could do much more there)

15 germany (15-20 imo)

= 575

 

650+ seems tough while 600 is very much alive. if it over-performs in Japan, legs it better Dom then 625+ could happen.

 

Edited April 7, 2018 by a2knet

[WrathOfHan]

37 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Well, never doubt The Rock (unless he's in a movie that looks as outright bad as Baywatch did). Plus, there was another giant gorilla movie sandwiched between two big releases in March of last year, and look how that turned out.

Technically, Hostiles flopped too. 31.7M WW on a production budget of 39M isn't a hit imo. It was just cushioned by somewhat outdoing the low expectations pre-limited release (if I recall correctly).

Hostiles was profitable for ES but not the production companies, so its a wash

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

AQP may be good but is it as groundbreaking as Get Out?

 

What do you mean by groundbreaking? 

[Brainbug]

11 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

AQP may be good but is it as groundbreaking as Get Out?

 

And if you think Get Out has some evil agenda that doesn't deserve to be addressed then that's just a personal take with little basis in reality.

 

Get Out (i believe) is seen as an outstanding film not for its actual fimmaking quality (which is above-average but not great), but for its themes and the way it connected its social commentary to the current political climate (especially ofc the US).

 

A Quiet Place may be a lot better than Get Out as "just a movie" (i havent seen AQP yet, so cant share my personal opinion), but it wont have any chance at the non-technical categorys of the Oscars. Genre movies, the academy doesnt like them. For the record, i personally think that the Academy Awards are a bad representation of the actual "best films of the year", as many choices they made are completely baffling to me. 

Edited April 7, 2018 by Brainbug

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

AQP may be good but is it as groundbreaking as Get Out?

 

And if you think Get Out has some evil agenda that doesn't deserve to be addressed then that's just a personal take with little basis in reality.

IMO, GO should have won Picture. I don't think it has any evil agenda, WTF? I'm just acknowledging that AMPAS saw it as an important movie rather than "just a horror movie" which greatly helped its nominations. Great horror w/o importance doesn't make it even in techs. Likewise, I think that BP has excellent chance for major noms at least in Picture because it's seen as important rather than "just a super hero movie". TDK is an all time greatness but couldn't do shit at the Oscars without importance factor. But it clearly stood the test of time and aged better than shitfest that won that year (Slumdog). 

 

I don't know why people get offended when someone points out that importance gave so and so movie a leg up over other genre movies that couldn't. It's a fact. It doesn't diminish their achievement. I think that LOTR movies are the best movies ever but I acknowledge the fact that filming back to back gave them leg up in the oscar race. Fat chance ROTK would have won if they had been filmed 2-3 years apart like any franchise. But the achievement of that undertaking was so great that AMPAS had to put genre bias aside and award the trilogy. 

 

And oscars are not a merit of quality. Just look at mediocre shit that get nominated and that wins. So that's that.

[Jay Beezy]

27 minutes ago, Nova said:

When people who go to screenings don't hype up your movie, that's when you know it's really really bad. 

And I’ve continued to read pundits showing faith in it simply because the Blumhouse name is attached to it, even some after admitting the trailer made it look stupid.

 

People will embrace dumb action if it’s fun, but they want their horror smart.

[The Panda]

Yeah, I think AQP lacks the social relevance to pull at Get Out at the Oscars unless this awards season is really dead.  I also think it’ll be overshadowed by BP as the early blockbuster pick.

[sfran43]

 

Edited April 7, 2018 by sfran43

[John Marston]

Hope A Quiet Place is nominated for best picture so we have Oscar nominee Michael Bay

[a2k]

RT aud scores

AQP 86%

Blockers 57%

Chappq 69%

[Fancyarcher]

 

[Jay Beezy]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Hope A Quiet Place is nominated for best picture so we have Oscar nominee Michael Bay

Who’da thought Jim Halpert would’ve brought Michael Bay the best reviewed film his name has ever been attached to?

Edited April 7, 2018 by Jay Beezy

[sfran43]